Tracking the Dragon: National Intelligence Estimates on China During the Era of Mao, 1948-1976

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Tracking the Dragon   This official National Intelligence Council publication highlights long-classified National Intelligence Estimates on China through a comprehensive collection of more than seventy National Intelligence Estimates covering the Mao era (1948-1976) in China. This recently declassified collection represents the most authoritative China intelligence assessments of the United States Government in that period, constituting a unique historical record of a momentous era in China's modern ...

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Overview

Tracking the Dragon   This official National Intelligence Council publication highlights long-classified National Intelligence Estimates on China through a comprehensive collection of more than seventy National Intelligence Estimates covering the Mao era (1948-1976) in China. This recently declassified collection represents the most authoritative China intelligence assessments of the United States Government in that period, constituting a unique historical record of a momentous era in China's modern history.The collection spans the pivotal period from the final stages of the Chinese civil war and the consolidation of the Communist regime through the upheavals of the Great Leap Forward and Cultural Revolution. It chronicles the struggles within the top leadership, the buildup of the Chinese military, and the evolution of the Sino-Soviet split. Tracking the Dragon allows the reader to assess these developments with a degree of historical perspective, while still feeling the excitement of reading “history as it happens.”
This publication also includes a CD-ROM containing all 71 National Intelligence Estimates. 
 

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Product Details

  • ISBN-13: 9780160731730
  • Publisher: U.S. Executive Office of the President
  • Publication date: 10/15/2004
  • Pages: 722
  • Product dimensions: 8.50 (w) x 10.90 (h) x 1.60 (d)

Meet the Author

Executive Office of the President, Central Intelligence Agency, Office of the Director, National Intelligence Council

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Table of Contents

Preface (English)
Preface (Mandarin)
Foreword
Introduction (English)
Introduction (Mandarin)

"*" Denotes declassified National Intelligence Estimate (NIE)
*ORE 45-48 The Current Situation in China,
22 July 1948*ORE 12-48 Prospects for a Negotiated Peace in China,
3 August 1948ORE 27-48 Possible Developments in China,
19 November 1948*ORE 77-48 Chinese Communist Capabilities for Control of All China,
10 December 1948*ORE 29-49 Prospects for Soviet Control of a Communist China,
15 April 1949*ORE 45-49 Probable Developments in China,
16 June 1949ORE 76-49 Survival Potential of Residual Non-Communist Regimes in China,
19 October 1949*ORE 89-49 The Food Outlook for Communist China,
3 February 1950*NIE-2 Chinese Communist Intervention in Korea,
6 November 1950*NIE-10 Communist China,
17 January 1951*NIE-58 Relations Between the Chinese Communist Regime and the USSR: Their Present Character and Probable Future Courses,
10 September 1952NIE-80 Communist Capabilities and Probable Courses of Action in Korea,
3 April 1953*NIE 13-54 Communist China’s Power Potential Through 1957,
3 June 1954NIE 13-56 Chinese Communist Capabilities and Probable Courses of Action Through 1960,
5 January 1956NIE 13-57 Communist China Through 1961,
19 March 1957NIE 13-2-57 Communist China’s Role in Non-Communist Asia,
3 December 1957*NIE 13-58 Communist China,
13 May 1958*SNIE 100-9-58 Probable Developments in the Taiwan Strait Area,
26 August 1958*SNIE 100-11-58 Probable Chinese Communist and Soviet Intentions in the Taiwan Strait Area,
16 September 1958*SNIE 100-12-58 Probable Developments in the Taiwan StraitCrisis,
28 October 1958NIE 13-2-59 Present Trends in Communist China,
10 February 1959*SNIE 100-4-59 Chinese Communist Intentions and Probable Courses of Action in the Taiwan Strait Area,
13 March 1959NIE 13-59 Communist China,
28 July 1959NIE 100-2-60 Sino-Indian Relations,
17 May 1960*NIE 100-3-60 Sino-Soviet Relations,
9 August 1960*NIE 13-60 Communist China,
6 December 1960*NIE 13-2-60 The Chinese Communist Atomic Energy Program,
13 December 1960SNIE 13-61 The Economic Situation in Communist China,
4 April 1961*NIE 10-61 Authority and Control in the Communist Movement,
8 August 1961SNIE 13-2-61 Communist China in 1971,
28 September 1961SNIE 10-3-61 Probable Communist Reactions to Certain SEATO Undertakings in South Vietnam,
10 October 1961SNIE 13-3-61 Chinese Communist Capabilities and Intentions in the Far East,
30 November 1961NIE 13-2-62 Chinese Communist Advanced Weapons Capabilities,
25 April 1962NIE 13-4-62 Prospects for Communist China,
2 May 1962NIE 13-4/1-62 Prospects for Communist China,
29 June 1962SNIE 13/31-62 Short-Term Outlook and Implications for the Sino/Indian Conflict,
9 November 1962*NIE 13-63 Problems and Prospects in Communist China,
1 May 1963SNIE 13-2-63 Communist China’s Advanced Weapons Program,
24 July 1963NIE 13-64 Economic Prospects for Communist China,
28 January 1964*SNIE 13-4-64 The Chances of an Imminent Chinese Communist Nuclear Explosion,
26 August 1964NIE 13-2-65 Communist China’s Advanced Weapons Program,
27 January 1965NIE 13-3-65 Communist China’s Military Establishment,
10 March 1965*NIE 13-9-65 Communist China’s Foreign Policy,
5 May 1965*NIE 13-7-65 Political Problems and Prospects in Communist China,
5 August 1965NIE 13-5-66 Communist China’s Economic Prospects,
13 January 1966*SNIE 13-66 Current Chinese Communist Intentions in the Vietnam Situation,
4 August 1966SNIE 13-8-66 Communist China’s Advanced Weapons Program,
3 November 1966*NIE 11-12-66 The Outlook for Sino-Soviet Relations,
1 December 1966*NIE 13-3-67 Communist China’s Military Policy and Its General Purpose and Air Defense Forces,
6 April 1967*NIE 13-7-67 The Chinese Cultural Revolution,
25 May 1967*NIE 13-5-67 Economic Outlook for Communist China,
29 June 1967M/H SNIE 13-8-66 Memo to Holders Communist China’s Advanced Weapons Program,
30 June 1967*NIE 13-8-67 Communist China’s Strategic Weapons Program,
3 August 1967*NIE 13-9-68 The Short-Term Outlook in Communist China,
23 May 1968NIE 13-3-68 Communist China’s General Purpose and Air Defense Forces,
1 August 1968SNIE 13-10-68 Communist China’s ICBM and Submarine Launched Ballistic Missile Programs,
19 September 1968NIE 13-8-69 Communist China’s Strategic Weapons Program,
27 February 1969*SNIE 13-69 Communist China and Asia,
6 March 1969*NIE 11/13-69 The USSR and China,
12 August 1969NIE 13-8/1-69 Communist China’s Strategic Weapons Program,
30 October 1969*SNIE 13-9-70 Chinese Reactions to Possible Developments in Indochina,
28 May 1970NIE 13-3-70 Communist China’s General Purpose and Air Defense Forces,
11 June 1970M/H NIE 13-8/1-69 Memo to Holders Communist China’s Strategic Weapons Program,
20 August 1970*NIE 13-7-70 Communist China’s International Posture,
12 November 1970SNIE 13-10-71 Communist China’s Reactions to Developments in Laos,
18 February 1971NIE 13-8-71 Communist China’s Weapons Program for Strategic Attack,
28 October 1971*NIE 13-3-72 China’s Military Policy and General Purpose Forces,
20 July 1972NIE 11-13-73 The Sino-Soviet Relationship: Military Aspects,
20 September 1973*NIE 11/13/6-73 Possible Changes in the Sino-Soviet Relationship,
25 October 1973*NIE 13-8-74 China’s Strategic Attack Programs,
13 June 1974NIE 13-76 PRC Defense Policy and Armed Forces,
11 November 1976
See CD inside back pocket for full text of above 37 and 34 other declassified China NIEs/SNIEs Note: Sections are complete unless otherwise noted

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