Transportation Decision Making: Principles of Project Evaluation and Programming / Edition 1

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Overview

This pioneering text provides a holistic approach to decision making in transportation project development and programming, which can help transportation professionals to optimize their investment choices. The authors present a proven set of methodologies for evaluating transportation projects that ensures that all costs and impacts are taken into consideration. The text's logical organization gets readers started with a solid foundation in basic principles and then progressively builds on that foundation. Topics covered include: Developing performance measures for evaluation, estimating travel demand, and costing transportation projects, Performing an economic efficiency evaluation that accounts for such factors as travel time, safety, and vehicle operating costs, Evaluating a project's impact on economic development and use as well as its impact on society and culture, Assessing a project's environmental impact, including air quality, noise, ecology, water resources, and aesthetics, Evaluating alternative projects on the basis of multiple performance criteria, Programming transportation investments so that resources can be optimally allocated to meet facility-specific and system-wide goals.

Each chapter begins with basic definitions and concepts followed by a methodology for impact assessment. Relevant legislation is discussed and available software for performing evaluations is presented. At the end of each chapter, readers are provided resources for detailed investigation of particular topics. These include Internet sites and publications of international and domestic agencies and research institutions. The authors also provide a companion Web site that offers updates, data foranalysis, and case histories of project evaluation and decision making.Given that billions of dollars are spent each year on transportation systems in the United States alone, and that there is a need for thorough and rational evaluation and decision making for cost-effective system preservation and improvement, this text should be on the desks of all transportation planners, engineers, and educators. With exercises in every chapter, this text is an ideal coursebook for the subject of transportation systems analysis and evaluation.

About the Author:
Kumares C. Sinha, Ph.D, PE, Hon. M.ASCE, is Edgar B. and Hedwig M. Olson Distinguished Professor in the School of Civil Engineering at Purdue University

About the Author:
Samuel Labi, PhD, is an assistant professor in the School of Civil Engineering at Purdue University

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Editorial Reviews

From the Publisher
"Sinha and Labi compile a vast reservoir of knowledge and technique that transportation decision makers might use to identify and evaluate these diverse impacts as part of the decision making process." (Journal of the American Planning Association, February 2009)

""I am not aware of any other book covering such a huge variety of practically relevant and qualitive models." (Zentralblatt MATH, 2008)

"The book does justice to the richness of the broader topic of decision making, covering the specific areas you would expect and more. Overall, the book is an excellent resource…the book is well-written and organized." (Journal of Transportation Engineering; 12/07)

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Product Details

  • ISBN-13: 9780471747321
  • Publisher: Wiley, John & Sons, Incorporated
  • Publication date: 5/25/2007
  • Edition description: New Edition
  • Edition number: 1
  • Pages: 576
  • Product dimensions: 8.84 (w) x 11.26 (h) x 1.37 (d)

Meet the Author

Kumares C. Sinha, PhD, PE, Hon. M.ASCE, is Edgar B. and Hedwig M. Olson Distinguished Professor in the School of Civil Engineering at Purdue University. Dr. Sinha is the Editor-in-Chief of the Journal of Transportation Engineering and a former president of the Transportation and Development Institute of the American Society of Civil Engineers.

Samuel Labi, PhD, is an assistant professor in the School of Civil Engineering at Purdue University. He is currently a visiting scholar at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

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Table of Contents


Preface     xxi
Introductory Concepts in Transportation Decision Making     1
Introduction     1
Overall Transportation Program Development     1
Network-Level Planning     1
Project Development     2
Programming     2
Budgeting     2
Financial Planning     2
The Process of Transportation Project Development     2
PDP Steps     3
Federal Legislation That Affects Transportation Decision Making     5
Impacts of Transportation System Stimuli     6
Types of Transportation Stimuli     6
Impact Categories and Types     7
Dimensions of the Evaluation     9
Other Ways of Categorizing Transportation System Impacts     11
Role of Evaluation in PDP and Basic Elements of Evaluation     12
Role of Evaluation in PDP     12
Reasons for Evaluation     12
Measures of a Project's Worth     12
Procedure for Transportation System Evaluation     13
Good Practices in Evaluation     18
Summary     18
Exercises     19
References     19
Performance Measures in Transportation Evaluation     21
Introduction     21
Transportation System Goals, Objectives, and Performance Measures     21
Performance Measures at the Network and Project Levels     22
Properties of a Good Performance Measure     24
Dimensions of Performance Measures     25
Performance Measures Associated with Each Dimension     25
Overall Goals     25
System Objectives     26
Sector Concerns and Interests     29
Flow Entity (Passenger and Freight)     29
Type of Transportation Mode     29
Number of Transportation Modes Involved     30
Entity or Stakeholder Affected     32
Spatial Scope     33
Level of Agency Responsibility     33
Time Frame and Level of Refinement     33
Linking Agency Goals to Performance Measures: State of Practice     33
Benefits of Using Performance Measures     33
Summary     34
Exercises     34
References     35
Estimating Transportation Demand     37
Introduction     37
Transportation Demand     37
Basic Concepts in Transportation Demand Estimation     37
Causes of Shifts in the Transportation Demand Curve     39
Categorization of Demand Estimation Models     39
Aggregate Methods for Project-Level Transportation Demand Estimation     39
Transportation Supply     48
Concept of Transportation Supply     48
Causes of Shifts in the Transportation Supply Curve     49
Equilibration and Dynamics of Transportation Demand and Supply     49
Demand-Supply Equilibration     49
Simultaneous Equation Bias in Demand-Supply Equilibration     49
Dynamics of Transportation Demand and Supply     50
Elasticities of Travel Demand     50
Classification of Elasticities by the Method of Computation     51
Classification of Elasticities by the Attribute Type     52
Classification of Elasticities by the Relative Direction of Response: Direct and Cross-Elasticities     52
Examples of Elasticity Values Used in Practice     53
Application of the Elasticity Concept: Demand Estimation     56
Consumer Surplus and Latent Demand     57
Emerging Issues in Transportation Demand Estimation     58
Summary     59
Exercises     59
References     61
Additional Resources     63
Transportation Costs      65
Introduction     65
Classification of Transportation Costs     65
Classification by the Incurring Party     65
Classification by the Nature of Cost Variation with Output     65
Classification by the Expression of Unit Cost     66
Classification by Position in the Facility Life Cycle     69
Other Classifications of Transportation Costs     69
Transportation Agency Costs     69
Agency Costs over the Facility Life Cycle     70
Techniques for Estimating Agency Costs     70
Risk as an Element of Agency Cost     72
Transportation User Costs     72
User Cost Categories     72
Impacts of Demand Elasticity, Induced Demand, and Other Exogenous Changes on User Costs     73
General Structure and Behavior of Cost Functions     74
Components of a Transportation Cost Function     74
Economies and Diseconomies of Scale     75
Historical Cost Values and Models for Highway Transportation Systems     76
Highway Agency Cost Models     76
Transit Cost Values and Models     76
Relationships between Transit Operating Costs, System Size, Labor Requirements, and Technology     89
Air Transportation Costs      89
Issues in Transportation Cost Estimation     90
Aggregated Estimates for Planning vs. Detailed Engineering Estimates for Projects     90
Adjustments for Temporal and Spatial Variations (How to Update Costs)     90
Adjustments for Economies of Scale     91
Problem of Cost Overruns     92
Relative Weight of Agency and User Cost Unit Values     93
Summary     93
Exercises     94
References     94
Travel-Time Impacts     97
Introduction     97
Categorization of Travel Time     97
Trip Phase     97
Other Bases for Travel-Time Categorization     98
Procedure for Assessing Travel-Time Impacts     98
Issues Relating to Travel-Time Value Estimation     104
Conceptual Basis of Time Valuation     104
Factors Affecting the Travel-Time Value     104
Methods for Valuation of Travel Time     107
Concluding Remarks     115
Summary     115
Exercises     116
References     117
Additional Resources     118
Estimation of Roadway Capacity Using the HCM Method (TRB, 2000)     118
Estimation of Roadway Operating Speeds Using the HCM Method (TRB, 2000)     120
Travel Times Used in World Bank Projects     123
Evaluation of Safety Impacts     127
Introduction     127
Basic Definitions and Factors of Transportation Safety     128
Definition of a Crash     128
Transportation Crashes Classified by Severity     128
Categories of Factors Affecting Transportation Crashes     128
Procedure for Safety Impact Evaluation     131
Methods for Estimating Crash Reduction Factors     141
Before-and-After Studies     141
Cross-Sectional Studies     142
Comparison of the Before-and-After and Cross-Sectional Methods     143
Elasticity of Crash Frequency     143
Safety-Related Legislation     144
Software Packages for Safety Impact Evaluation of Transportation Investments     144
Interactive Highway Safety Design Model     144
Indiana's Safety Management System     144
Considerations in Safety Impact Evaluation     144
Summary     145
Exercises     146
References     147
Additional Resources     148
Crash Reduction and Accident Modification Factors     149
Vehicle Operating Cost Impacts     157
Introduction     157
Components of Vehicle Operating Cost     157
Fuel     157
Shipping Inventory     157
Lubricating Oils for Mechanical Working of the Drivetrain     158
Preservation of the Vehicle-Guideway Contact Surface     158
Vehicle Repair and Maintenance     158
Depreciation     158
VOC Data Sources and Average National VOC Rates     158
Factors that Affect Vehicle Operating Cost     159
Vehicle Type     159
Fuel Type     160
Longitudinal Grade     161
Vehicle Speed     161
Delay     164
Speed Changes     166
Horizontal Curvature     166
Road Surface Condition     167
Other VOC Factors     169
Procedure for Assessing VOC Impacts     169
Steps for Assessing the Impacts     169
Implementation of Steps 4 to 6 Using the HERS Method     172
Special Case of VOC Estimation: Work Zones     176
Selected Software Packages that Include A VOC Estimation Component     176
AASHTO Method     176
HERS Package: National and State Versions      176
HDM-4 Road User Effects     176
Surface Transportation Efficiency Analysis Model     177
Other Models That Include a VOC Estimation Component     177
Comparison of VOC Estimation Methods and Software     177
Levels of Detail     177
Data Sources     177
Summary     178
Exercises     178
References     179
Additional Resources     180
FHWA (2002) HERS Models for VOC Computation     180
VOC Component Unit Costs     194
Pavement Condition Adjustment Factors     194
Economic Efficiency Impacts     197
Introduction     197
Interest Equations and Equivalencies     197
Cash Flow Illustrations     197
The Concept of Interest     197
Types of Compounding and Interest Rates     198
Interest Equations and Key Variables     199
Special Cases of Interest Equations     202
Criteria for Economic Efficiency Impact Evaluation     204
Present Worth of Costs     204
Equivalent Uniform Annual Cost     204
Equivalent Uniform Annual Return     204
Net Present Value     205
Internal Rate of Return     205
Benefit-Cost Ratio     205
Evaluation Methods Using Incremental Attributes     206
General Discussion of Economic Efficiency Criteria     207
Procedure for Economic Efficiency Analysis     207
Software Packages for Economic Efficiency Analysis     209
Surface Transportation Efficiency Analysis Model     209
MicroBenCost Model     209
Highway Development and Management Standards Model     210
Highway Economic Requirements system     210
California DOT'S Cal-B/C System     210
Life-Cycle Cost Analysis     210
Case Study: Economic Efficiency Impact Evaluation     210
Final Comments on Economic Efficiency Analysis     212
Summary     213
Exercises     213
References     215
Additional Resources     216
Appendix A8     216
Economic Development Impacts     229
Introduction     229
Economic Development Impact Types     229
Economic Development Impact Types     229
Economic Development Impact Mechanisms     230
Selection of Appropriate Measures of Economic Impact     230
Tools for Economic Development Impact Assessment     231
Surveys and Interviews     232
Market Studies     235
Comparative Analysis Tools: Case Studies     235
Economic Multiplier/Input-Output Models     237
Statistical Analysis Tools     239
Economic Simulation Models     240
Estimation of Long-term Regional Economic Development Impacts     241
Case Study: Economic Development Impact Assessment     244
Summary     246
Exercises     246
References     247
Additional Resources     249
Air Quality Impacts     251
Introduction     251
Air Pollution Sources and Trends     251
Pollutant Types, Sources, and Trends     251
Categories of Air Pollution     254
Estimating Pollutant Emissions     254
Some Definitions     254
Factors Affecting Pollutant Emissions from Motor Vehicles     254
Approaches for Estimating Pollutant Emissions from Highways     256
Procedure for Estimating Highway Pollutant Emissions     258
Software for Estimating Pollutant Emissions     261
Estimating Pollutant Concentration     265
Factors Affecting Pollutant Dispersion      265
Pollutant Dispersion Models     266
Software for Estimating Pollutant Dispersion and Concentrations     270
Air Pollution from Other Modes     271
Air Transportation     271
Rail Transportation     273
Marine Transportation     273
Transit (Various Modes)     273
Monetary Costs of Air Pollution     274
Methods of Air Pollution Cost Estimation     274
Air Pollution Cost Values     275
Air Quality Standards     276
Mitigating Air Pollution from Transportation Sources     276
Air Quality Legislation and Regulations     277
National Legislation     277
Global Agreements     278
Summary     278
Exercises     278
References     279
Additional Resources     280
Using Mobile6 to Estimate Emissions     280
Values of the Gaussian Distribution Function     284
Noise Impacts     287
Introduction     287
Fundamental Concepts of Sound     287
General Characteristics     287
Addition of Sound Pressure Levels from Multiple Sources     288
Sources of Transportation Noise     290
Factors Affecting Transportation Noise Propagation     290
Nature of Source, Distance, and Ground Effects     291
Effect of Noise Barriers     292
Procedure for Estimating Noise Impacts for Highways     292
Application of the Procedure using the FHWA Model Equations     293
Reference Energy Mean Emission Level     295
Traffic Flow Adjustment     295
Distance Adjustment     295
Adjustment for Finite-Length Roadways     295
Shielding Adjustment     296
Combining Noises from Various Vehicle Classes     299
Application of the Procedure Using the Traffic Noise Model (TNM) Software Package     300
The Traffic Noise Model     300
Estimating Noise Impacts for Other Modes     301
Transit Noise and Vibration     301
Air Transportation     301
Rail Transportation     301
Marine Noise     303
General Guidelines for Noise Impact Evaluation of New Transportation Improvements     303
Mitigation of Transportation Noise     304
Noise Barrier Cost Estimates     305
Legislation and Regulations Related to Transportation Noise     306
Summary      308
Exercises     308
References     309
Additional Resources     310
Noise Attenuation Charts by Barriers Defined by N[subscript 0],[phgr subscript L], and [phgr subscript R]     310
Impacts on Wetlands and Other Ecosystems     313
Introduction     313
Basic Ecological Concepts     313
Concept of Ecosystems     313
Physical Base     314
Wetland Ecosystems     314
Mechanisms of Ecological Impacts     315
Direct vs. Indirect Mechanisms     315
Impact Mechanism by Species Type     315
Ecological Impacts of Activities at Various PDP Phases     315
Locational Planning and Preliminary Field Surveys     316
Transportation System Design     319
Construction     319
Operations     319
Maintenance     320
Performance Goals for Ecological Impact Assessments     320
Diversity of the Physical Base of the Ecosystem     320
State of Habitat Fragmentation     320
Significant Species and Habitats     321
Diversity of Species     321
Ecosystem Stability     321
Ecosystem Quality or Productivity      322
Procedure for Ecological Impact Assessment     322
Legislation     329
Endangered Species Act of 1973     329
Laws Related to Wetlands and Other Habitats     329
Mitigation of Ecological Impacts     329
Mitigation at Various Phases of the Project Development Process     331
Methods and Software Packages for Ecological Impact Assessment     332
Wetland Functional Analysis     332
Hydrogeomorphic Classification Method     333
Habitat Evaluation Procedures Software     334
Summary     334
Exercises     334
References     335
Additional Resources     336
Impacts on Water Resources     337
Introduction     337
Categories of Hydrological Impacts     337
Source of Impacts     337
Impact Types     338
Water Source Affected     338
Transportation Mode and Activity     338
Hydrological Impacts by Transportation Mode     338
Highway Impacts     338
Railway Impacts     339
Air Transportation Impacts     339
Marine Transportation Impacts     341
Performance Measures for Hydrological Impact Assessment     341
Measures Related to Water Quantity and Flow Patterns     342
Measures Related to Water Quality     342
Procedure for Water Quality Impact Assessment     343
Methods for Predicting Impacts on Water Resources     345
Impacts on Water Quantity     345
Impacts on Water Quality     348
Mitigation of Water Resource Impacts     353
Mitigation Measures by Impact Criterion     353
Mitigation Measures by Nature of Water Source     353
Mitigation Measures by PDP Phase     354
Discussion of Mitigation     354
Water Quality Standards     354
Legislation Related to Water Resource Conservation     354
Software for Water Resources Impact Assessment     355
Summary     355
Exercises     356
References     357
Additional Resources     358
Visual Impacts     359
Introduction     359
Principles of Visual Performance     359
General Principles     359
Performance Measures for Visual Performance Assessment     360
Factors Affecting Visual Performance and Impact Mechanisms     361
Factors      361
Impact Mechanisms     363
Procedure for Visual Impact Assessment     363
Legislation Related to Visual Impact     371
Mitigation of Poor Visual Performance of Existing Facilities     371
Visual Performance Enhancement: State of Practice     372
Context-Sensitive Design Practices     373
Policies and Guidelines for Visual Performance Preservation and Enhancement     373
Cost of Visual Performance Enhancements     375
Summary     375
Exercises     376
References     376
Additional Resources     377
Impacts on Energy Use     379
Introduction     379
Factors that Affect Transportation Energy Consumption     381
Fuel Prices and Taxes     381
Fuel Economy Regulation     381
Vehicle Sales by Class     381
Vehicle Technology     381
Road Geometry     381
Transportation Intervention     382
Other Factors     383
Energy Intensity     383
Framework for Energy Impact Analysis     383
Direct Consumption     384
Indirect Consumption     384
Procedures for Estimating Energy Consumption     386
Macroscopic Assessment: Approach A     386
Project Screening Level Model: Approach B     388
Microscopic Simulation: Approach C     393
The National Energy Modeling System     397
Approaches to Energy Consumption Estimation-a Comparison     399
Energy and Transportation: What the Future Holds     399
Summary     400
Exercises     400
References     401
Additional Resources     401
Land-Use Impacts     403
Introduction     403
The Transportation-Land-Use Relationship     404
Land-Use Impacts on Transportation     404
Transportation Impacts on Land Use     406
Land-Use Impacts in terms of Monetary Costs     406
Tools for Analyzing Land-Use Changes     407
Qualitative Tools     408
Quantitative Tools     409
Procedure for Land-Use Impact Assessment     413
Case Studies: Land-Use Impact Assessment     419
Evansville-Indianapolis I-69 Highway Project     419
Light-Rail Transit Project     420
Summary     422
Exercises     422
References      423
Social and Cultural Impacts     427
Introduction     427
Mechanisms of Transportation Impacts on the Social and Cultural Environments     428
Direct Impacts     428
Indirect Impacts     428
Cumulative Impacts     429
Target Facilities and Groups, and Performance Measures     429
Target Facilities and Groups     429
Performance Measures     429
The Issue of Poverty Alleviation in Developing Countries     431
Equity and Environmental Justice Concerns     431
An Example of the Distribution of Project Costs and Benefits     434
Procedure for Social and Cultural Impact Assessment     435
Tools for Sociocultural Impact Assessment     439
Qualitative Tools     439
Quantitative Tools     441
Mitigation of Adverse Sociocultural Impacts     442
Sociocultural Impact Mitigation: State of Practice     442
Legislation Related to Sociocultural Impacts     443
Summary     444
Exercises     445
References     446
Additional Resources     447
Evaluation of Transportation Projects and Programs Using Multiple Criteria     449
Introduction      449
Establishing Weights of Performance Criteria     449
Equal Weighting     449
Direct Weighting     450
Regression-Based Observer-Derived Weighting     450
Delphi Technique     451
Gamble Method     452
Pairwise Comparison of the Performance Criteria     453
Value Swinging Method     455
Scaling of Performance Criteria     456
Scaling Where Decision Making Is under Certainty     456
Scaling Where Decision Making Is under Risk     458
Combination of Performance Criteria     462
Combined Mathematical Functions of Value, Utility, or Cost-Effectiveness     462
Ranking and Rating Method     464
Maxmin Approach     465
Impact Index Method     466
Pairwise Comparison of Transportation Alternatives Using AHP     467
Mathematical Programming     469
Pairwise Comparison of Alternatives Using the Outranking Method     472
Case Study: Evaluating Alternative Projects for a Transportation Corridor Using Multiple Criteria     473
General Considerations of Risk and Uncertainty in Evaluation     475
The Case of Certainty: Using Sensitivity Analysis     475
The Case of Objective Risk: Using Probability Distributions and Simulation     476
The Case of Uncertainty     477
Summary     479
Exercises     479
References     481
Additional Resources     481
Use of Geographical and Other Information Systems     483
Introduction     483
Hardware for Information Management     483
Software and Other Tools for Information Management     483
Non-GIS Relational Database Management Systems     483
Geographical Information Systems     484
Internet GIS     486
Video Log Information Management Systems     487
GIS Applications in Transportation Systems Evaluation     487
Query, Display, and Visualization of Initial Data     488
Buffer Analysis     488
Overlay Analysis     489
Analysis of Transportation Operations     489
Public Input in Transportation System Evaluation     489
Multicriteria Decision Making     490
Existing Databases and Information Systems     490
Information Systems and Data Items Available by Transportation Mode     490
General Databases Useful for Transportation Systems Evaluation     494
GIS-Based Software Packages for Information Management     495
Summary     495
Exercises     496
References     496
Transportation Programming     497
Introduction     497
Roles of Programming     497
Optimal Investment Decisions     498
Trade-off Considerations     498
Linkage to Budgeting     498
Efficiency in Program and Project Delivery     498
Monitoring and Feedback     498
Procedure for Programming Transportation Projects     499
Programming Tools     504
Priority Setting     504
Heuristic Optimization     506
Mathematical Programming     506
Case Studies: Transportation Programming     512
Programming Process at a State Transportation Agency     513
Programming Process at a Metropolitan Area Level     515
Keys to Successful Programming and Implementation     518
Link between Planning and Programming     518
Uncertainties Affecting Transportation Programming     519
Intergovernmental Relationships     519
Equity Issues in Programming     519
Summary     520
Exercises      520
References     522
Additional Resources     523
Cost Indices     525
Performance Measures     527
Index     537
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