Uncertainty: A Guide to Dealing with Uncertainty in Quantitative Risk and Policy Analysis / Edition 6

Uncertainty: A Guide to Dealing with Uncertainty in Quantitative Risk and Policy Analysis / Edition 6

by Millett Granger Morgan, Max Henrion
     
 

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ISBN-10: 0521365422

ISBN-13: 9780521365420

Pub. Date: 02/28/2007

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

Uncertainty's importance in the problems of risk and policy analysis is explained by outlining its source and nature, discussing techniques for obtaining and using expert judgment and reviewing methods of analyzing uncertainty.

Overview

Uncertainty's importance in the problems of risk and policy analysis is explained by outlining its source and nature, discussing techniques for obtaining and using expert judgment and reviewing methods of analyzing uncertainty.

Product Details

ISBN-13:
9780521365420
Publisher:
Cambridge University Press
Publication date:
02/28/2007
Pages:
348
Product dimensions:
5.98(w) x 8.98(h) x 0.94(d)

Table of Contents

Preface; 1. Introduction; 2. Recent milestones; 3. An overview of quantitative policy analysis; 4. The nature and sources of uncertainty; 5. Probability distributions and statistical estimation; 6. Human judgement about and with uncertainty; 7. Performing probability assessment; 8. The propagation and analysis of uncertainty; 9. The graphic communication of uncertainty; 10. Analytica: a software tool for uncertainty analysis; 11. Large and complex models; 12. The value of knowing how little you know; Index.

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