Uncertainty: A Guide to Dealing with Uncertainty in Quantitative Risk and Policy Analysis / Edition 1

Uncertainty: A Guide to Dealing with Uncertainty in Quantitative Risk and Policy Analysis / Edition 1

by Millett Granger Morgan, Max Henrion
     
 

ISBN-10: 0521427444

ISBN-13: 9780521427449

Pub. Date: 06/28/1992

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

The authors explain the ways in which uncertainty is an important factor in the problems of risk and policy analysis. This book outlines the source and nature of uncertainty, discusses techniques for obtaining and using expert judgment, and reviews a variety of simple and advanced methods for analyzing uncertainty. Powerful computer environments and good graphical

Overview

The authors explain the ways in which uncertainty is an important factor in the problems of risk and policy analysis. This book outlines the source and nature of uncertainty, discusses techniques for obtaining and using expert judgment, and reviews a variety of simple and advanced methods for analyzing uncertainty. Powerful computer environments and good graphical techniques for displaying uncertainty are just two of the more advanced topics addressed in later chapters.

Product Details

ISBN-13:
9780521427449
Publisher:
Cambridge University Press
Publication date:
06/28/1992
Edition description:
Reprint
Pages:
346
Product dimensions:
5.98(w) x 8.98(h) x 0.79(d)

Table of Contents

Preface; 1. Introduction; 2. Recent milestones; 3. An overview of quantitative policy analysis; 4. The nature and sources of uncertainty; 5. Probability distributions and statistical estimation; 6. Human judgement about and with uncertainty; 7. Performing probability assessment; 8. The propagation and analysis of uncertainty; 9. The graphic communication of uncertainty; 10. Analytica: a software tool for uncertainty analysis; 11. Large and complex models; 12. The value of knowing how little you know; Index.

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