Understanding Near Crises and Escalation in World Politics: A Mixed Methods Approach

by Steven E. Lobell, Patrick James, Scott A. Silverstone, Victor Asal, Kyle Beardsley

Overview

This book introduces the near crisis phase of conflict and escalation.

These time-sensitive disputes between states, and even with violent non-state actors, do not involve significant risk of military escalation, at least in the moment. Investigating how and why some near crises escalate, while others do not, requires an explanation of the different dynamics of international disputes and the policy tools that states and international institutions can employ. We ask an expanded set of questions about specific cases and general patterns of conflict behavior, such as: why did Israeli leaders respond to Hezbollah’s 2006 cross-border raid with escalation, resulting in the Second Lebanon War, while in previous instances the Israelis limited their retaliation? Why didn’t the 2015 Iranian Ballistic Missile Test or the 1995 Norwegian Black Brant Missile Launch escalate, while the 2009 North Korea Missile Movement and the 1995 Taiwan Straits dispute tipped into a full-blown crisis, and why did the 2008 Russia-Georgia conflict escalate from near crisis to war? We use primary sources and newly created data on near crises to answer these questions and others. The overall conclusion is that an ounce of prevention at the near crisis phase is worth a pound of cure in averting a full-blown crisis or war.

This book will be of great interest to students of security studies, conflict studies, foreign policy, and international relations.

Product Details

ISBN-13:	9781041007173
Publisher:	Taylor & Francis
Publication date:	07/31/2025
Series:	Routledge Global Security Studies
Pages:	168
Product dimensions:	6.12(w) x 9.19(h) x (d)

About the Author

Steven E. Lobell is a Professor in the Department of Political Science at the University of Utah, USA.

Patrick James is the Dean’s Professor Emeritus of International Relations at the University of Southern California, USA.

Scott A. Silverstone is a Professor of International Relations at the United States Military Academy at West Point.

Victor Asal is the Director of the Center for Policy Research and Professor of Political Science at the University at Albany, USA.

Kyle Beardsley is a Professor of Political Science at Duke University, USA, the Director of the Triangle Institute for Security Studies, and the Co-Director of the International Crisis Behavior Data Project.

Edward Gonzalez is an Instructor of Political Science at Compton College, USA.

Norrin M. Ripsman is the Monroe J. Rathbone Distinguished Professor of International Relations at Lehigh University, USA.

Shikshya Adhikari works as a Research Associate. She has experience working with advanced statistical techniques and data analysis tools. She is a mixed-methods researcher. She has worked for humanitarian response projects. She has an M.A. in Political Science and an M.S. in Sociology.

Suzanne Weedon Levy currently serves as the Director of Grants for a non-profit in New York’s Capital Region. Prior to transitioning to the non-profit sector, she spent almost a decade as the Research Director of the Project on Violent Conflict (PVC) at the University at Albany, where she focused on the behavior of terrorist and insurgent non-state actors.

Grace Sorci currently works as a Senior Research Associate at The Chicago Lighthouse. At the time of this project, she served as a Research Aide and Project Supervisor for the Project on Violent Conflict (PVC) at the University at Albany.

Nakissa Jahanbani is an Adjunct Lecturer at the Pennsylvania State University and a Senior Analyst at the Afghanistan War Commission in the Senate. Her research focuses on how states partner with violent non-state actors.

Anne van Wijk obtained her PhD in Political Science and International Relations from the University of Southern California in 2022. In her dissertation, van Wijk discusses the constraints under which states operate as members of international organizations and untangles how and when international cooperation is likely to break down.

Table of Contents

Chapter 1: Near Crises and the Process of Escalation in World Politics  Chapter 2: Near Crises and Escalation Processes: A Systemist Exposition  Chapter 3: Dissecting the Dynamics of Near Crisis: Introducing the Diplomatic, Informational, Military, and Economic (DIME) Moves Dataset  Chapter 4: Postures and Portents: Action-Level Predictors of Near Crisis Escalation  Chapter 5: Terrorist and Insurgent Organizations in Near Crises: Who Participates and Why?  Chapter 6: Implications of Near Crises for the Policy Practitioner Community  Chapter 7: What Have We Learned?

Editorial Reviews

'Understanding Near Crises and Escalation in World Politics introduces the concept of "near crisis" to address a critical yet often overlooked issue: the policy decisions and actions taken in the prelude to crises or military escalations. The framework offers a fresh perspective that equips policymakers, and scholars, with valuable tools to mitigate entanglements before they escalate into full crises.'

Juan E. Battaleme Martinez, Secretary for Argentinean Defense International Relations, Ministry of Defense

'Near crises occupy the space where confrontations in international crises can escalate or de-escalate. In this outstanding first book-length investigation of near crises in world politics, the systemist method for graphically conveying arguments is employed to provide insights for academics and practitioners who seek understanding of the escalation dynamic.' 

Jonathan Wilkenfeld, Professor Emeritus of Government and Politics at the University of Maryland and Director of the ICONS simulation project

'Understanding Near Crises and Escalation in World Politics is an indispensable read for national security practitioners. They now have the tools to diagnose near-crises conditions and recognize possible catalysts for escalation toward crises and even war.  How and when policymakers use instruments of power can make a difference in stabilizing a complex world.' 

Sonya Finley, Colonel (Retired), Professor of Strategy, US National War College

'By focusing on why and how “near crises” escalate into full-blown conflicts, this book contributes to improving our collective understanding of escalation dynamics. These insights are important to both better prevent crises and conflicts and to strengthen deterrence. An important read for scholars and policy-makers alike.'

Benedetta Berti-Alberti, Director, Policy Planning, Office of the Secretary General, NATO

From the Publisher