Understanding Oil Prices: A Guide to What Drives the Price of Oil in Today's Markets

Overview

A very complete analysis of the crude oil market, thefinal product markets and the refining industry – I highlyrecommend this book.
Frédéric Lantz, Program Supervisor and Masterin Environmental Economics, Sustainable Development and Energy,IFP-School

“Salvatore Carollo makes a hard issue seem easy.Balanced, comprehensive and clear, this book will enlighten anyoneinterested...

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Understanding Oil Prices: A Guide to What Drives the Price of Oil in Today's Markets

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Overview

A very complete analysis of the crude oil market, thefinal product markets and the refining industry – I highlyrecommend this book.
Frédéric Lantz, Program Supervisor and Masterin Environmental Economics, Sustainable Development and Energy,IFP-School

“Salvatore Carollo makes a hard issue seem easy.Balanced, comprehensive and clear, this book will enlighten anyoneinterested in oil prices. It is a must read!”
Giovani Machado – DSc. in Energy Planning, Advisorat Energy Research Company – EPE, Brazil

“In addition to historical and theoretical background,Carollo's book provides an excellent ground-level view of the wayoil markets really work. He explains not only the impact of productregulations on markets, but shows the way in which the trade iscarried out in financial markets, such as the Brent forwardmarket.” 
Michael Lynch, President and Director of Global PetroleumService, Strategic Energy & Economic Research Inc.(SEER)

“It is very hard to accurately anticipate thefluctuations of oil prices. Yet, understanding what drives thesefluctuations is possible and this book offers a rigorous andintelligent synthesis of what we know about the forces andinstitutions that shape energy markets and, thus, oil prices.Salvatore Carollo has written an invaluable reference forprofessionals interested in the formation of oilprices.”
Moisés Naím, PhD, Senior Associate, CarnegieEndowment for International Peace

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Product Details

  • ISBN-13: 9781119962724
  • Publisher: Wiley
  • Publication date: 12/20/2011
  • Series: Wiley Finance Series
  • Edition number: 1
  • Pages: 200
  • Sales rank: 634,395
  • Product dimensions: 6.00 (w) x 9.10 (h) x 1.00 (d)

Meet the Author

SALVATORE CAROLLO graduated in engineering from the University of Palermo, where he also served as a lecturer and researcher. In 1975 he began working at eni; both in Italy and abroad where he was active in various sectors of the petroleum downstream, refining, market research, supply and trading of crude oil. Since 1995 he has been based first in Amsterdam and then in London as the manager of the Upstream Marketing Department, where he is responsible for the commercial relations with several producing countries and eni partners in various joint ventures. Within this area he provides support to eni corporate university, through teaching activities at the Mater MEDEA and organising the annual Oil Market and Commercialization of Crude Oil seminar. He is often called in as an expert by various institutions in the oil sector to provide his own analysis on the dynamics of oil prices.

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Table of Contents

Foreword xiii

Preface xv

Quick Reference Guide xix

List of Figures xxiii

List of Tables xxvii

List of Boxes xxix

1 TheWorld Crude Oil Paradoxes 1

2 The Market Events from 2008 to 2011 7

World Energy Policy 8

The Financial Crisis and the Oil Market 10

Fundamentals or Financial Speculation? 17

Demand/Supply of Gasoline and Gasoil 21

WTI – Brent Differential 24

3 Evolution of the Price of Crude Oil from the 1960s up to1999 29

1960–1980: The Oil Monopoly and the Two Crises in the1970s 30

The 1980s: The Gradual Disappearance of OPEC 33

The Price War 35

1985–2000: From the Introduction of Brent as anInternational Benchmark to the Clean Air Act 37

The Suicide of OPEC 40

The Start of the Free Market 41

The Consequences of the Environmental Turnaround 44

4 Changes in the Market for Automotive Fuels 45

Evolution of Environmental Demand 45

Gasoline and its Components 50

Reforming 51

Cracking 52

Alkylation 53

Isomerization 53

Refiners Walk the Tightrope 53

The Fiscal Policy of the Industrialized Countries RegardingFuels 55

5 World Oil Flow 63

Transformations in the Downstream 66

World Supply Structure 70

6 The Classical Model of the International Oil Market73

7 The Short-term Model of the International Oil Market81

8 The Brent Market 89

The Sale and Purchase Contract 90

The Forward Market for Brent (15 day Brent Contract) 94

The IPE Brent Market 100

The Divorce Between Oil Price and Oil 102

9 Principal Uses of the Forward and Futures Markets105

Tax Spinning 105

Benchmarking 105

Hedging the Price Risks 106

Speculations on Operational Flexibilities at Loading 114

Market Structure: Contango and Backwardation 117

Procedures at the Loading Terminals 119

10 Problems of the Brent Forward Market 123

11 The European Refinery Crisis 131

12 Conclusions:We are Ourselves OPEC 155

Bibliography 163

Index 165

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