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United States and Asia: Toward a New U. S. Strategy and Force Posture

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The past 20 years have been a time of relative peace in Asia and, notwithstanding the 1997-1998 financial crisis, a period of robust economic growth as well. Currently, however, Asia is beset by a variety of problems that could well imperil the stability it has long enjoyed — including territorial disputes, nuclear rivalry, rising nationalist sentiments, and increased military capabilities. This report summarizes the manner in which the United States can best meet these challenges and thereby ensure continued ...

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Overview

The past 20 years have been a time of relative peace in Asia and, notwithstanding the 1997-1998 financial crisis, a period of robust economic growth as well. Currently, however, Asia is beset by a variety of problems that could well imperil the stability it has long enjoyed — including territorial disputes, nuclear rivalry, rising nationalist sentiments, and increased military capabilities. This report summarizes the manner in which the United States can best meet these challenges and thereby ensure continued peace and stability in the region. In the interests of this goal, the report outlines an integrated political, military, and economic strategy that the United States can pursue to inhibit the growth of rivalries in Asia and, more broadly, prevent the rise of instability in the region. Also delineated are changes in U.S. military posture that will be made necessary by this strategy.

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Editorial Reviews

Time Magazine
...The United States and Asia, a just-released RAND study that has become a must-read in D.C.
Booknews
This US Air Force-sponsored study proposes an approach that the US can take to help preserve stability in Asia in the face of the region's changing security environment. After examining major regional trends and the challenges they pose, the report outlines ways in which the US might respond to and shape future Asian developments toward the goal of creating a "dynamic peace." The study then examines the long-term implications of this approach for US military forces in general and the Air Force in particular. This report lacks a subject index. Annotation c. Book News, Inc., Portland, OR (booknews.com)
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Product Details

  • ISBN-13: 9780833029553
  • Publisher: RAND Corporation
  • Publication date: 6/28/2001
  • Pages: 320
  • Product dimensions: 6.88 (w) x 8.96 (h) x 0.60 (d)

Read an Excerpt

The United States and Asia

Toward a New U.S. Strategy and Force Posture
By Zalmay Khalilzad David T. Orletsky Jonathan D. Pollack Kevin L. Pollpeter Angel Rabasa David A. Shlapak Abram N. Shulsky Ashley J. Tellis

Rand Corporation

Copyright © 2001 Rand Corporation
All right reserved.




Chapter One

INTRODUCTION: THE USAF AND ASIA

The past 20 years in Asia have been a time of relative peace that has seen Asian governments set aside their differences in order to concentrate on economic growth. At the same time, however, Asia's economic success-notwithstanding the financial crisis of 1997-1998-is providing many states with the means to act on latent rivalries and ambitions that had previously been subordinated to economic growth. Nationalism, territorial disputes, nuclear rivalry, and the potential rise of a hegemon may all disrupt the present political-military balance in Asia. In short, serious problems confront Asia that, if not well managed, could spell an end to the relative peace the continent has enjoyed for the past two decades.

Asia is, moreover, a region fraught with rivalry, suspicion, and insecurity. As China becomes more powerful, it may well become more assertive. India also has ambitions of becoming a major continental actor and, as evidenced by its 1998 nuclear tests, regards China as its primary long-term rival. Similarly, Japan may ultimately move toward a more independent foreign policy. More immediately, Korean unification or reconciliation could change the balanceof power in Northeast Asia.

The principal challenge for U.S. regional strategy is to prevent 21st-century Asia from becoming unstable and producing massive conflagrations. Toward this goal, the United States must begin to formulate policies that will enable Asia to develop peacefully and in ways compatible with U.S. national interests. The United States cannot hope to resolve every regional security issue in Asia, but together with its allies it can strive to focus on the larger issues while shaping the smaller ones so that they remain manageable. At the same time, the United States must build a framework for greater regional cooperation in Asia. Enhanced communication and more fully integrated economies will reduce misunderstanding and increase interdependence, thereby diminishing the likelihood of major-power rivalry and armed conflict. Expanded security alliances will further aid in deterring aggression.

To understand the region's future prospects and potential challenges to U.S. strategy, Chapter Two first examines the changing political-military environment in Asia and discusses possible outcomes. Chapter Three then deals with U.S. strategy for the region. It examines several alternatives for shaping and responding to the future Asian political-military environment and finally recommends a strategy of creating a "dynamic peace."

Chapter Four examines the military implications of the proposed strategy. It also focuses on possible military missions that the U.S. armed forces might be called on to perform in furtherance of that strategy and the implications for the U.S. Air Force (USAF).

Four appendices examine in greater detail the changing political-military environments in Northeast Asia, China, Southeast Asia, and South Asia.

(Continues...)



Excerpted from The United States and Asia by Zalmay Khalilzad David T. Orletsky Jonathan D. Pollack Kevin L. Pollpeter Angel Rabasa David A. Shlapak Abram N. Shulsky Ashley J. Tellis Copyright © 2001 by Rand Corporation . Excerpted by permission.
All rights reserved. No part of this excerpt may be reproduced or reprinted without permission in writing from the publisher.
Excerpts are provided by Dial-A-Book Inc. solely for the personal use of visitors to this web site.
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Table of Contents

Preface
Figures
Tables
Summary
Acknowledgments
Acronyms
Ch. 1 Introduction: The USAF and Asia 1
Ch. 2 The Changing Asian Political-Military Environment 3
Is Asia Heading Toward Rivalry? 3
Whither a Unified Korea? 7
The U.S.-Japan Alliance 13
Adjusting to the Emergence of China 16
India's Future Role 24
Pakistan as a Failed State? 31
The Future of Russia 32
South China Sea 35
Indonesia as a Disintegrating State? 38
Vietnam as a Significant Actor? 40
Ch. 3 U.S. Strategy for a Changing Asia 43
U.S. Objectives in the Region 43
Strategic Options 45
A Proposed U.S. Strategy for Asia 46
Ch. 4 Implications for the Military and USAF: The Challenges of Change 57
Shaping the Asian Security Environment 57
Responding to Crises 59
Missile Defense 84
Bolstering Overall U.S. Posture in Asia 87
The Long Term 88
App. A The Changing Political-Military Environment: Northeast Asia 91
App. B The Changing Political-Military Environment: China 137
App. C The Changing Political-Military Environment: Southeast Asia 163
App. D The Changing Political-Military Environment: South Asia 203
Bibliography 241
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Introduction

THE USAF AND ASIA
Chapter Two
THE CHANGING ASIAN POLITICAL-MILITARY
ENVIRONMENT
Is Asia Heading Toward Rivalry?
A Period of Relative Peace: 1980-2000
Will It Continue?
Whither a Unified Korea?
The U.S.-Japan Alliance
Adjusting to the Emergence of China
India's Future Role
Pakistan as a Failed State?
The Future of Russia
South China Sea
Indonesia as a Disintegrating State?
Vietnam as a Significant Actor?
Conclusion
Chapter Three
U.S. STRATEGY FOR A CHANGING ASIA
U.S. Objectives in the Region
Strategic Options
A Proposed U.S. Strategy for Asia
Adapting the U.S. Position in Northeast Asia
South China Sea
South Asia
Chapter Four
IMPLICATIONS FOR THE MILITARY AND USAF: THE
CHALLENGES OF CHANGE
Shaping the Asian Security Environment
Responding to Crises
Northeast Asia
Taiwan
Southeast Asia
South Asia
Missile Defense
Bolstering Overall U.S. Posture in Asia
The Long Term
Appendix
A. THE CHANGING POLITICAL-MILITARY ENVIRONMENT:
NORTHEAST ASIA, by Jonathan D. Pollack
B. THE CHANGING POLITICAL-MILITARY ENVIRONMENT:
CHINA
C. THE CHANGING POLITICAL-MILITARY ENVIRONMENT:
SOUTHEAST ASIA, by Angel Rabasa
D. THE CHANGING POLITICAL-MILITARY ENVIRONMENT:
SOUTH ASIA, by Ashley J. Tellis
Bibliography
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