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Uprising: Will Emerging Markets Shape or Shake the World Economy

Overview

“A level-headed, reasonable and fascinating analysis, and a valuable and accessible tool for any investor trying to make sense of the world.”
Gillian Tett, US Managing Editor, Financial Times

“Anyone interested in the forces shaping the global economy, and our prosperity, should read Uprising.
Robert Peston , BBC Business Editor

“Balanced and instructive. For Chinese readers the book is a mirror through which they can see a clearer image of ...

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Overview

“A level-headed, reasonable and fascinating analysis, and a valuable and accessible tool for any investor trying to make sense of the world.”
Gillian Tett, US Managing Editor, Financial Times

“Anyone interested in the forces shaping the global economy, and our prosperity, should read Uprising.
Robert Peston , BBC Business Editor

“Balanced and instructive. For Chinese readers the book is a mirror through which they can see a clearer image of their own problems. For non-Chinese readers, this is a good handbook on the current state of China’s economy.”
Professor Yu Yongding , President, China Society of World Economics

“This well-reasoned and informative book is a must for anyone who wants to udnerstand the challenges ahead for emerging countries.”
Nouriel Roubini , Professor of Economics at NYU Stern School of Business and Chairman of Roubini Global Economics

“For those suffering from advanced Sinoptimism—the belief that China will inevitably take over the world in the 21st century—George Magnus offers a therapeutic skepticism. Elegantly weaving together his unrivalled knowledge of the global financial crisis with his deep understanding of the long-term trends in international development and demography, Magnus lays bare the Asian dragon’s many frailties. Uprising will persuade you that there is much about today’s emerging markets that is still distinctly Third World. If Magnus is right, the ultimate fate of the ‘BRICS’ will not be to rise inexorably, but to drop like, well, bricks.”
Niall Ferguson , Laurence A. Tisch Professor of History at Harvard University, William Ziegler Professor of Business Administration at Harvard Business School and author of The Ascent of Money

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Editorial Reviews

Library Journal
Books addressing issues related to China's economic rise are not unusual; what sets this title apart is the level of detail Magnus (senior economic adviser, UBS Investment Bank; The Age of Aging: How Demographics Are Changing the Global Economy and Our World) provides in laying out the complex, multifaceted relationship between the United States and China. Drawing on history, demographics, politics, and economics, he paints a picture of a multipolar post-crisis world, with the United States and China its reluctant de facto leaders. Noting weaknesses in China's financial and economic governance, however, Magnus concludes that only the United States is positioned to pilot the world through the after-crisis turbulence and its reverberations. The United States will have to take the lead in establishing a new economic order. The author also sheds light on the major emerging economies (Brazil, Russia, India, and others) and the impact of both climate change and demographics on the world's economic future. VERDICT The level-headed, disinterested approach and the non-overbearing inclusion of relevant data make the book appropriate for deepening one's understanding of present geopolitical tectonics. This is highly recommended to any audience interested in political economy.—Jekabs Bikis, Dallas Baptist Univ., TX
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Product Details

  • ISBN-13: 9780470660829
  • Publisher: Wiley
  • Publication date: 12/28/2010
  • Edition number: 1
  • Pages: 368
  • Sales rank: 1,454,754
  • Product dimensions: 5.80 (w) x 8.60 (h) x 1.60 (d)

Meet the Author

GEORGE MAGNUS is Senior Economic Adviser at UBS Investment Bank, London. Previously, he was Chief Economist at UBS; he has held similar positions with Union Bank of Switzerland and SG Warburg.

George Magnus is well-known and respected as a public commentator on the long-term consequences of the financial crisis. His first book The Age of Aging: How Demographics are Changing the Global Economy and Our World was published by Wiley in 2008. He lives, works and writes in London, is married and has four children.

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Table of Contents

Acknowledgments.

Introduction.

Chapter 1 Back to the Future?

Chapter 2 Who Are Those Guys?

Chapter 3 To Armageddon and Back.

Chapter 4 Atomic Clouds of Footloose Funds.

Chapter 5 After the Crisis: Catharsis or Chaos?

Chapter 6 Older and Wiser: Demographic and Technological Challenges.

Chapter 7 The Climate Change Catch-22.

Chapter 8 Who Will Inherit the Earth?

Notes.

Index.

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Customer Reviews

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Sort by: Showing 1 Customer Reviews
  • Posted January 31, 2011

    more from this reviewer

    China: Dial Down Sound Bites, Bring In Cold Analysis

    George Magnus invites his audience not to fall prey to linear thinking that forecasts the inevitable rise of a 21st century of emerging markets. Political economy, not economic forecasting models, will ultimately determine which economy will remain dominant for the decades to come. Mr. Magnus demonstrates convincingly that demographics, geography, and institutions are essential to command and project economic and political power. Although Mr. Magnus regularly refers to emerging powers such as India, Brazil, Russia, Indonesia, and Turkey, he concentrates most of his attention on China. The United States and China are the only two countries that do not have predominantly local or regional agendas, or very specific global interests. Mr. Magnus observes that the existential challenge the world faces for the foreseeable future is not military antagonism, but the fragility of the existing multilateral system that was born in the wake of WWII. Neither China nor the United States of America wants to recognize explicitly that both countries played a key role in the occurrence of the financial crisis that erupted in 2007-2008. Unsurprisingly, both countries cannot agree on mutually beneficial solutions and policies for the world. China is not able and/or willing to assume the role of a benign global hegemon that can harmonize its own interests with those of others by exercising soft power to get their buy in. China's overriding concerns are domestic, not international. The Unites States is going through a crisis of "existential" anxiety that could push the country to revert back to isolationism and protectionism at times of crisis. Mr. Magnus bets on a to-be-reformed United States that would renew itself once more to lead the world out of its current malaise. The United States will have to remediate its industrial and financial sector weaknesses in the coming decade. The retooling of the existing multilateral system will also depend on the variable inputs of China and other emerging powers in co-shaping the future of humanity. Mr. Magnus does think that only the United States has the demographics, geography, and institutions to further command and project economic and political power for the decades to come: 1. China will grow old before becoming rich based on current projections. China will be inferior to the United States by 2050 on every demographic metric except total population size. 2. Furthermore, geography will continue to favor the United States as a whole. Parts of China are highly vulnerable to climate change. Think about desertification, water shortage, or flooding, depending on the prevailing local conditions. 3. Most importantly, Mr. Magnus observes that the United States has what China lacks when it comes to the ability to change and adapt. The United States has a legal, political, and institutional system based around private property rights, independent adjudication, contract law, and above all, the rule of law. In China, the party is the principal source of authority, to which the state and then the judiciary are subservient. The more authoritarian and rigid state of China's institutions will increasingly undermine the country's more complex, modern, evermore consumer-oriented economy, giving rise to political tensions. In summary, Mr. Magnus calls the United States not to skirt its global responsibilities in co-shaping a multilateral system that has served its interests well.

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