WAR BY OTHER MEANS--BUILDING COMPLETE AND BALANCED

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Overview

Examines how the United States should improve its counterinsurgency (COIN) capabilities through, for example, much greater focus on understanding jihadist strategy, using civil measures to strengthen the local government, and enabling local forces to conduct COIN operations. Provides a broad discussion of the investments, organizational changes, and multilateral arrangements that the United States should pursue to improve its COIN capabilities.

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Product Details

  • ISBN-13: 9780833043092
  • Publisher: Rand Publishing
  • Publication date: 2/25/2008
  • Series: Rand Counterinsurgency Study Ser.
  • Edition description: New Edition
  • Pages: 520
  • Product dimensions: 6.10 (w) x 9.00 (h) x 1.40 (d)

Meet the Author

David Gompert (Master of Public Affairs, Woodrow Wilson School, Princeton University) is formerly president of RAND Europe and Vice President at RAND. He has held a variety of positions at the State Department and White House, including Senior Director for Europe and Eurasia on the National Security Council staff. He is currently Director of National Security in the Iraq Coalition Provisional Authority.

John Gordon IV (Currently enrolled in the Public Policy PhD program at George Mason University) is a RAND researcher.

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Table of Contents

Preface iii

Figures xvii

Tables xix

Summary xxiii

Acknowledgments lix

Abbreviations lxi

Part I The Challenge

Chapter 1 Defining the Problem 1

GWOT or COIN? 1

The Globalization of Insurgency and COIN 14

The Untidy and Dynamic World of COIN 17

What to Expect from This Report 19

Chapter 2 Framing the Problem 23

A Planning Construct 23

Types of Insurgency 23

Type I Local Insurgency 25

Type II Local-International Insurgency 26

Type III Global-Local Insurgency 27

Type IV Global Insurgency 28

Aspects of COIN 32

Understanding 32

Shaping 33

Acting 35

Timing: Understanding, Shaping, and Acting over the Lifetime of Insurgency 36

COIN Capabilities 40

Territorial 40

Structural 41

Kinetic 42

Informational 43

Cognitive 44

Chapter 3 Countering Type III Insurgency 49

The Main Threat 49

COIN Challenges from Type III Insurgencies 58

The Paradox of Force 62

Achieving Legitimacy and Security While Reducing Reliance on Deadly Force 67

Part II Complete and Balanced Capabilities

Chapter 4 Overview of Capabilities Needed to Counter Type III Insurgency 75

Timely Civil COIN 76

The Power of Information 78

Improving Local Forces 81

A Change in Emphasis for U.S. Military Forces 83

Chapter 5 Civil Capabilities 87

Introduction 87

Competition in the Civil Realm 89

Strategies to Meet the Challenges of Type III Insurgency 90

Carrot-and-Stick 90

Hearts-and-Minds 91

Transformation 92

Integrating the Three Strategies to Counter Type III Insurgency 93

Expertise and Resources in Functional Areas 95

Coordinated Participation of Multiple Organizations 97

The Host Nation 98

The U.S. Government 98

Other Governments99

International Organizations 99

Nongovernmental Organizations 100

Guiding Principles for Implementing a Strategy 100

Coordinate Civil and Military Efforts 100

Start Early 101

Manage Expectations 103

Current Efforts 103

Capabilities: How Ready Is the United States to Conduct Civil COIN? 105

Nature of the Quantitative Analysis 106

The Necessary Operational Culture Is Lacking 108

Current Numbers of Personnel Are Too Low 110

Fiscal Resources Are Insufficient 113

Thinking About Future Capabilities 116

Illustrative Scenario 1 "The Big One" 116

Illustrative Scenario 2 Two "Mediums" 117

Illustrative Scenario 3 Two "Mediums" Plus Prevention 117

The Security Problem 120

Conclusion 121

Chapter 6 Information Capabilities 123

Information as a Strategic Resource 123

Putting Users First in Setting and Meeting Information Requirements 126

Getting Information 133

Promoting a Cell Phone Society 133

National Registry-Census, ID Cards, and Vetting 137

Three-Dimensional Awareness 139

Embedded Video 140

National Wiki 141

Enabling Information Users to Be Productive Information Providers 142

ICON 144

How Much Difference Would ICON Make? 151

An ICONic Vignette 152

Feasibility and Implementation 155

Chapter 7 Perception and Cognition 161

Influencing Opinion 161

From Information Power to Brain Power 168

Cognitive Capabilities for COIN 169

Conclusion 172

Chapter 8 General Security Capabilities 175

Rethinking Basic Requirements 175

Core Security Capabilities 178

Institutional Management Capacity 179

Uniformed Command and Leadership 181

Logistics 182

IO Capabilities and Competence 183

Justice Systems 184

Police and Law Enforcement 185

Constabulary Police 187

Technical Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (ISR) 188

Human Intelligence 189

Border Security 190

Coastal Security 191

Tactical Air Mobility 191

Long-Range Air Mobility 192

Specialized Forces for High-Value Targets (HVTs) 193

Precision Strike 194

Ground Combat 194

The Relationship of Local and Foreign Capabilities 198

Chapter 9 Local Security Capabilities 203

Factors Affecting Local Capability 203

Timing 204

Insurgent Strength 205

Initial Condition of the Local Government 208

Priorities for Local Security Capabilities 209

Real-World Obstacles 214

Chapter 10 U.S. Security Capabilities 217

Building for Success; Hedging Against Disappointment 217

Building for Success 218

Three U.S. Missions: Prepare, Enable, Operate 218

Requirements for Preparing, Enabling, and Operating 223

Deficient U.S. Capabilities 228

Hedging Against Disappointment 233

Training and Education 238

Nonlethal Force Options 239

Land Mobility 240

Inclusive, Integrated, User-Based Networks for Sharing and Collaboration 240

Sustainable Ground Operations 240

U.S. Ground Forces-Better or Bigger? 241

Conclusion 247

Part III Organizing and Investing

Chapter 11 Multilateral Counterinsurgency 249

The Case for Multilateral COIN 249

The Content of Multilateral COIN Capabilities 251

Preparing for Multilateral COIN 256

The NATO-EU Model 261

The Non-NATO Model 264

Conducting Multilateral COIN 266

Multilateral COIN Campaign Models 269

Functions, Principles, and Options 272

Political Authority, Strategy-Setting, and Policymaking 273

Campaign Oversight 274

Command, Control, and Collaboration in Security Operations 274

Local Cooperation 275

Information 275

Politics 276

Chapter 12 Investment Priorities 279

The Need to Invest 279

Setting Investment Priorities 281

Planning High-Priority Investments 287

Investing for an Uncertain Future 295

Costs 297

Conclusion 301

Chapter 13 Organization: Unsettled Structures for Unsettled Times 303

Organizational Issues in Perspective 303

Capability Gaps and Organizational Implications 307

Justice and Police 309

Building Local Security Institutional Capacity 311

Organizing, Training, Equipping, and Advising Foreign Armed Forces 313

Employment Impact 314

Mass Public Education 314

Macro-Structural Considerations 316

Government Option 1 Business-as-Usual 318

Government Option 2 Install a COIN Czar 320

Government Option 3 Create a COIN Agency 322

Defense COIN Options 324

Defense Option 1 Business-as-Usual 326

Defense Option 2 Expand the Scope and Size of U.S. SOCOM 327

Defense Option 3 Assign COIN as a Principal Mission of Regular Forces 330

Defense Option 4 Create a Defense Security Agency 335

Summary 338

Micro-Structural Considerations 339

Chapter 14 Implications and Recommendations 347

Definitions Matter 347

Complete and Balanced COIN Capabilities 351

Will It Really Work? 354

Implementation Strategy 357

Investment 357

Organization 359

Harnessing Information Power 360

Multilateral COIN 361

Engendering Local Responsibility 363

Getting Started: Specific Recommendations for Immediate Attention 365

Civil COIN 366

Information and Cognition 366

Local Security Services 367

U.S. Forces 367

Multilateral 368

Organization 368

Conclusion 368

Appendixes

A Eighty-Nine Insurgencies: Outcomes and Endings 373

B Multilateral COIN Capacity 397

C Indicators and Warnings 431

D Ground-Force Tasks and Improvements 439

About the RAND COIN Team 441

Works Cited 445

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