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Our lives are governed by chance. But what, exactly, is chance? In this book, accomplished statistician and storyteller Bart K. Holland takes us on a tour of the world of probability. Weaving together tales from real life—from the spread of the bubonic plague in medieval Europe or the number of Prussian cavalrymen kicked to death by their horses, through IQ test results and deaths by voodoo curse, to why you have to wait in line for rides at Disneyworld—Holland captures the reader's imagination with surprising examples of probability in action, everyday events that can profoundly affect our lives but are controlled by just one number.
As Holland explains, even chance events are governed by the laws of probability and follow regular patterns called statistical laws. He shows how such laws are successfully applied, with great benefit, in fields as diverse as the insurance industry, the legal system, medical research, aerospace engineering, and climatology. Whether you have only a distant recollection of high school algebra or use differential equations every day, this book offers examples of the impact of chance that will amuse and astonish.
The Johns Hopkins University Press
This is a book I can happily recommend... I learnt something from every chapter.
The author writes fluently and with authority and he covers a host of different situations... The strength of this book is the wealth of examples of applied probability theory which will provide useful support for any statistics course in the classroom.
An excellent source of interesting examples of probability and statistics in action.
— Colin Keay
An extremely fun read... Insightful and full of interesting applications.
Holland captures the reader's imagination with surprising examples of probability in action, everyday events that can profoundly affect our lives. It will amuse and astonish the reader.
Holland Captures the reader's imagination with surprising examples of probability in action, everyday events that can profoundly affect our lives but are controlled by just one number.
— James Gerrand
— Marilis Hornidge
— Simon Singh
Written to make minimal (almost zero) use of formulas or algebraic skills. Covers a remarkable number of topics [which are] introduced to stimulate the interest of the average reader.
— Quentin L. Burrell
— Gerry Leversha
— James V. Rauff
All 140 pages of What Are the Chances? are enjoyable and convey much wisdom in an area where gut feelings and rash actions frequently prevail.
What Are the Chances? is an enjoyable read. And painlessly instructive as well... [a] charming book.
What Are the Chances? will give you a whole new outlook... readable, comprehendable, and often funny.
If you have ever wondered about the chances of a Prussian cavalryman being kicked to death by his horse or if you prefer to work out your own life expectancy by staring at life tables, then Bart Holland's excellent primer on probability is a great place to start. In a time when anecdote and panic seem to influence public policy more than objective analysis, Holland has provided a welcome reminder of the power of the analytical approach.
| Preface | ||
| Acknowledgments | ||
| 1 | Roulette Wheels and the Plague | 1 |
| 2 | Surely Something's Wrong with You | 31 |
| 3 | The Life Table: You Can Bet on It! | 51 |
| 4 | The Rarest Events | 71 |
| 5 | The Waiting Game | 95 |
| 6 | Stockbrokers and Climate Change | 109 |
| Index | 137 |
Overview
Our lives are governed by chance. But what, exactly, is chance? In this book, accomplished statistician and storyteller Bart K. Holland takes us on a tour of the world of probability. Weaving together tales from real life—from the spread of the bubonic plague in medieval Europe or the number of Prussian cavalrymen kicked to death by their horses, through IQ test results and deaths by voodoo curse, to why you have to wait in line for rides at Disneyworld—Holland captures the reader's imagination with surprising ...