What Will Be: How the New World of Information Will Change Our Lives

Overview

Michael Dertouzos has been an insightful commentator and an active participant in the creation of the Information Age.Now, in What Will Be, he offers a thought-provoking and entertaining vision of the world of the next decade — and of the next century. Dertouzos examines the impact that the following new technologies and challenges will have on our lives as the Information Revolution progresses:

  • all the music, film and text ever produced will ...
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What Will Be: How the New World of Information Will Change Our Lives

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Overview

Michael Dertouzos has been an insightful commentator and an active participant in the creation of the Information Age.Now, in What Will Be, he offers a thought-provoking and entertaining vision of the world of the next decade — and of the next century. Dertouzos examines the impact that the following new technologies and challenges will have on our lives as the Information Revolution progresses:

  • all the music, film and text ever produced will be available on-demand in our own homes
  • your "bodynet" will let you make phone calls, check email and pay bills as you walk down the street
  • advances in telecommunication will radically alter the role of face-to-face contact in our lives
  • global disparities in infrastructure will widen the gap between rich and poor
  • surgical mini-robots and online care will change the practice of medicine as we know it.

Detailed, accessible and visionary, What Will Be  is essential for Information Age revolutionaries and technological neophytes alike.

In this fascinating, essential guidebook to the Third Revolution, tech oracle Michael Dertouzos--head of MIT Laboratory for Computer Science and author of the bestselling Made in America--charts a uniquely knowledgeable and richly detailed map of the changes which the new technology will wreak in every aspect of readers' lives. 288 pp. 12-city author tour. Print ads. Online promo. 125,000 print.

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Editorial Reviews

From Barnes & Noble
The Barnes & Noble Review
May 1997

Does the remarkable progression of computerized technology frighten or confuse you? Does it excite you? Do you wonder, amid all the new developments and prophecies made by the communications industry, what your life will be like in the 21st century? Michael Dertouzos, director of the renowned Laboratory for Computer Science at MIT, has written a new book entitled What Will Be, an inside view of how information technology will shape our world in the coming millennium.

Professor Dertouzos is not an outside commentator making unfounded forecasts about our future. His is a voice of experience. MIT has one of the premier computer research laboratories in the world, and Dertouzos has been at the helm for 20 years. His visions have proven legitimate time and again: In 1981, he described a "global marketplace" in place by the 21st century, "where people and computers buy, sell, and freely exchange information and information services," which sounds like a very early description of what we know today as the Internet. Dertouzos's prognosis is for the Internet's content to shift from the predominant film, music, and news sites of today to a new business marketplace, where human office work will take precedence.

As you form your own opinion about the changes in technology that lie ahead, What Will Be encourages you to ponder these new ideas and more: "Bodynets" will allow you to make phone calls and pay bills as you walk down the street; speech recognition programs will make keyboards, windows, and menus obsolete; health care costscouldplummet when doctors begin to bid for patients' attention online; email will cease to be typed messages and become transmitted "experiences." The information marketplace of tomorrow stands to generate $9 trillion per year, one-half of the industrial world's GNP. Information technology could coax nations to expand beyond their traditional geographic boundaries and become "networks." It is all possible, though according to Professor Dertouzos, observers who publicly herald the arrival of the "technological revolution" are premature. The world has only seen a fraction of "what will be," says the author, and everyone needs to know how the innovations of the future will affect our relationship to one another.

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Product Details

  • ISBN-13: 9780062515407
  • Publisher: HarperCollins Publishers
  • Publication date: 2/28/1998
  • Edition number: 1
  • Pages: 384
  • Product dimensions: 6.12 (w) x 9.25 (h) x 0.87 (d)

Meet the Author

Tech oracle Michael Dertouzos (1937-2001) offered a learned, accessible, and fascinatingly detailed preview of new information technology and described how it would remake our society, culture, economy, and private lives.

Since 1974 Michael Dertouzos had been Director of the MIT Laboratory for Computer Science (LCS). For more than a quarter century, MIT has been at the forefront of the computer revolution. Its members and alumni have been instrumental in the invention of such innovations as time-shared computers, RSA encryption, the Spreadsheet, the NuBus, the X-Window system, the ARPAnet and the Internet. The Lab is currently home to the World Wide Web Consortium, an open forum of companies and organizations led by the Web’s inventor.

Dertouzos had spent much of his career studying and forecasting future technological shifts, and leading his lab toward making them a reality. In a 1976 People magazine interview, he successfully predicted the emergence of a PC in every 3-4 homes by the mid-1990s. In 1980, he first wrote about the Information Marketplace, with an ambitious vision of networked computers that has emerged as the trillion-dollar engine of commerce transforming our economy.

Most recently, Dertouzos has been an advocate for what he calls "human-centric computing" — a radical transformation of the way we use computers. As part of this effort, LCS recently unveiled the $50 million Oxygen project, intended to make computers easier to use and as natural a part of our environment as the air we breathe.

Born in Athens, Greece, Dertouzos came to the U.S. as a Fulbright Scholar. Following a Ph.D. from MIT in 1964, he joined the MIT faculty, where he had been Professor of Computer Science and Electrical Engineering.

In 1968 Dertouzos founded Computek Inc. to manufacture and market one of the earliest graphical display terminals, based on one of his patents. He soon became the Chairman of the Board of Computek, where he introduced the first intelligent terminals in the early 1970's. He subsequently sold the company when he became Director of LCS. Since that time, Dertouzos has been involved in several high-tech start-ups, including Picture Tel and RSA. In his consulting activities for companies such as Siemens Nixdorf, UPS, and BASF he has advanced business and Information Technology strategies.

During the Carter Administration, Dertouzos chaired a White House advisory group that redesigned the White House Information Systems. In February of 1995, he represented the U.S. as a member of the U.S. delegation led by Vice President Al Gore to the G7 Conference on the Information Society. In 1998 he was co-chairman of the World Economic Forum on the Network Society in Davos, Switzerland.

Dertouzos was a dual citizen of the U.S. and the E.U. He had worked extensively with the European Commission, in particular as a frequent keynote speaker on ESPRIT and other EC technology programs. For several years he was an adviser to the Prime Minister of Greece, as well as to other governments.

Dertouzos was also a member of the United States National Academy of Engineering and the Athens Academy of Arts and Sciences. He held an honorary doctorate from the University of Athens, and he received the B.J. Thompson Award (best paper) of the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) and the Terman Award (best educator) of the American Society for Engineering Education. He was a member of the U.S. Council on Foreign Relations, and has been honored by the Hellenic Republic as Commander of Greece's Legion of Honor.

Dertouzos is the author/co-author of seven books, including MADE IN AMERICA: Regaining the Productive Edge (MIT Press, 1989), with over 300,000 copies in print, and WHAT WILL BE: How the New World of Information Will Change Our Lives (HarperCollins, 1997), which has been translated into thirteen languages.

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Read an Excerpt

Shaping the Future

A Home for the Web

The visitors in my office, acquaintances from my native Greece, were touring MIT with their son, who had applied for admission. It was February 1995 in Cambridge, Massachusetts, and the annual ritual of admission was once again under way. The trees outside my ground-floor windows at the MIT Laboratory for Computer Science were dormant, but hopes for college careers were budding.

We were discussing MIT's 150-year tradition of not giving honorary doctorates to anyone, however famous, and many other characteristics of this great institution that made it so attractive to students and faculty alike. Suddenly, my assistant, Anne, appeared in my doorway. "Michael, they need you on the third floor. It's urgent!" I excused myself and rushed out.

I could sense trouble as soon as I got off the elevator. Four members of the team responsible for the World Wide Web—the computer network scheme that had taken the world by storm—were huddled in animated debate over newspapers and e-mail printouts. Two others were on their phones talking with so much artificial calm that it must have been to the press. They briefed me.

It had all started innocently enough the previous day, during a meeting on computer security organized by the Web Consortium,a group at that time of fifty organizations worldwide led by MIT and its European partner INRIA, which strives to push forward the Web standards. At the meeting, chaired by Tim Berners-Lee, inventor of the Web and director of the consortium, a member had asked for a casual show of hands as to which of two proposed security standards the members preferred, based on what theyknew so far. Someone had leaked the straw-vote results, and this morning's headlines read: World Wide Web Consortium decides on Web security standard. The folks at Netscape, the leading provider of software for navigatingthe Web, had sent us e-mail threatening to walk out of the consortium because the "chosen" standard was not their favorite. Other consortium members were complaining that they hadn't been consulted. The team was now smoothing their feathers. Albert Vezza, associate director of our lab, was explaining to the reporter who wrote the story why it was wrong; a retraction would be issued the following day. Though I was director of the Laboratory for Computer Science and thus ultimately responsible for the Web Consortium and its activities, there was little for me to do. They were making all the right decisions. I told them so, and urged them to stay cool.

Back in the elevator, I mused that this way of pushing the technological frontier was not exactly what I had envisioned when four decades earlier, as a teenager in the United States Information Service Library of my hometown, Athens, I had come upon the design of a motorized mouse that could find its way through an arbitrary maze. My heart and mind were totally captured by this little machine. I knew that designing mechanical mice at MIT was what I would do for a living. I wasn't aware that the designer of that machine, who would become a colleague, was the celebrated Claude Shannon, who pioneered Information Theory and made the word bit something of a celebrity. Nor could I have known that the tiny robot was one of the many crucial advances in a long technical chain that would lead to computers and eventually the World Wide Web.

On this Tuesday almost halfway through the 1990s, we at the MIT Laboratory for Computer Science were still inventing exciting hardware, like bodynets that can link small computerized devices on our eyeglasses and belts with others in our cars and homes, or software that can hold a conversation with a human. But technology had grown to affect the world so profoundly, to become so intertwined with human activity, that it was no longer an isolated pursuit. The rumble blaming technology for the world's ills had long been rising. So it was not surprising to me to have a crisis at the nerve center of the Web that was sociotechnical in nature. Already, in two short years the Web had shed its techie aura and become a major cultural movement involving millions of people. The tens of millions of Web users, from homeowners to CEOs, were growing in number at an alarming rate, adding daily to the cumulative web of information by posting their own "home pages" that described their interests and needs and included writings and other offerings. The (computer) mouse clicks of all these people, like twists on millions of door handles, were opening countless doors to information, fun, adventure, commerce, knowledge, and all kinds of surprises at millions of sites—down the street or a continent away.

Clearly, the new world of information was already affecting everyone's lives. Yet I knew that its present impact paled in comparison to what would be coming in the next several decades. While the media continued to flash old news about information highways, electronic mail, multimedia CD-ROMs, virtual reality, even the Web, newer and more fascinating technologies were already being prototyped in our lab and others around the globe. Meanwhile, the world's economies were getting ready to surrender a huge chunk of themselves to the activities that would stem from these technologies. And the envisioned activities, in turn, were already raising complex new social issues.

It was natural for the media to seize on exciting gadgetry it could already see and understand. But the press was missing much more startling research at labs it never bothered to explore—or that it found "boring" because the technology didn't have adrenal shock value or immediate impact on our lives. On the social and political fronts, too, it was more current to debate pornography on
the Internet than the future prospects for war and peace that the Information Age might bring. Mantras like "It's all about interactive TV" and "The medium is the message" were clouding the bigger picture. In a quiet but relentless way, information technology would soon change the world so profoundly that the movement would claim its place in history as a socioeconomic revolution equal in scale and impact to the two industrial revolutions.

Information technology would alter how we work and play, but more important, it would revise deeper aspects of our lives and of humanity: how we receive health care, how our children learn, how the elderly remain connected to society, how governments conduct their affairs, how ethnic groups preserve their heritage, whose voices are heard, even how nations are formed. It would also present serious challenges: poor people might get poorer and sicker; criminals and insurance companies and employers might invade our bank accounts, medical files, and personal correspondence. Ultimately, the Information Revolution would even bring closer together the polarized views of technologists who worship scientific reason and humanists who worship faith in humanity. Most people had no idea that there was a tidal wave rushing toward them.

I returned to my office and my old friend and his family. They thanked me for my time and left. I would find the son's name on the freshman class list that fall. Good for him; he had won a golden opportunity to see the tidal wave at close range, maybe even make some waves himself.

Our lab became the Web's home through a combination of chance and planning by many people. Three years after inventing the Web, Tim Berners-Lee, still at the CERN Physics Laboratory in Geneva, had begun looking for an institution that would help his brainchild grow. He had been offered opportunities to market the Web by starting or joining a company, thereby entering the club of Internet millionaires. But his idealism, his wish to make the Web a public resource, pushed him to search for a neutral institution. On this side of the Atlantic, as director of a lab that aspired to design the information infrastructures for tomorrow's society, I was looking for a way to bring the lab's celebrated researchers closer to the growing millions of Internet users. We heard of each other's interest and got together. After a dinner in Zurich and a couple of meetings in Boston, we realized we shared the same basic ideas. More important, the chemistry between us seemed right. We felt that we could trust each other.

On February 24, 1994, we clinched the deal. The Web Consor-tium was planned and formed by Albert Vezza. Tim, who joined MIT and our lab, became its director. Consortium members would pay an annual fee of either $5,000 or $50,000 based on their size. The fee would buy each company and university, large or small, an equal seat around the table where they would debate the future directions of the Web under Tim's leadership and would try to keep it from breaking up into different Web dialects. Within a year giants like AT&T, Microsoft, and Sony had joined, as had innovators like Netscape and Sun Microsystems. By mid-1996, the Web Consortium had 150 member organizations.

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Table of Contents

Foreword
Preface
I Shaping the Future 1
1 Vision 3
2 The Revolution Unfolds 25
3 Where Person Meets Machine 55
4 New Tools 81
II How Your Life Will Change 111
5 Daily Life 113
6 Pleasure 139
7 Health 165
8 Learning 175
9 Business and Organizations 191
10 Government 215
III Reuniting Technology and Humanity 227
11 The Value of Information 229
12 Electronic Bulldozers 251
13 Electronic Proximity 277
14 Ancient Humans 295
Appendix The Five Pillars of the Information Age 317
Index 329
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Interviews & Essays

On Wednesday, May 21st, the barnesandnoble.com Author Auditorium welcomed Professor Michael Dertouzos, director of MIT's Laboratory for Computer Science, who joined us to discuss his new book, WHAT WILL BE.



Question: Can you recommend any good books, besides WHAT WILL BE, about the Internet, information technology, etc.?

Michael L Dertouzos: The other two major books are: Bill Gates's THE ROAD AHEAD and Nicholas Negroponte's BEING DIGITAL. There are at least a hundred other books in the computer aisles in any major bookstore.


Question: What are three positive and three negative effects you see the Internet/WWW having on our society?

Michael L Dertouzos: For positive, increased office productivity, greater prospects for collaboration, a shared set of values. For negatives, increased gap between rich and poor, more infojunk, and infocrimes.


Question: "Ubiquity" is often used when referring to the future of the Internet. When do you see this happening? What are the biggest obstacles now?

Michael L Dertouzos: Five hundred million interconnected computers by 2007. That's still only 7 percent of the world's population.


Question: Is the Internet a gold rush? Will only the Levi Strausses (for example, Cisco) get rich in the near future?

Michael L Dertouzos: No. The information marketplace is owned by and used by everyone. No single organization or small group can own it, because for the first time, each of us can sell our skills as well as buy products and services.


Question: How can managers best prepare themselves to work in the information age? How can we be more efficient and not be drowned by too much of everything?

Michael L Dertouzos: Stay vigilant by reading constantly. The terrain is changing daily.


Question: Can you please explain "bodynets"? This is something completely foreign to me. Thank you.

Michael L Dertouzos: Bodynets were inspired by the redundancy of having displays and push buttons on cellular phones, LCD diaries, video and audio Walkmen, pagers, etc., that a person carries. The bodynet is a network that connects all theses devices to a shared display, speakers, and mikes, on wearable glasses.


Question: Do you feel that Hollywood has a good grasp on technology that will affect the future? It always seems that the movies present a new idea in futuristic technology, the public sees it as fantastical, and then boom, the new technology appears soon after.

Michael L Dertouzos: Yes. It was the same with Jules Verne.


Question: I saw you on CNET the other night! It prompted me to buy the book. Let me ask you this: Where do you think Microsoft will be in five years?

Michael L Dertouzos: Thanks! If Microsoft continues to make the right moves, as it is doing now, it will continue to be a major factor, perhaps even a bigger factor, than it is today.


Question: David Shenk was on here last night, and he talked about the overload of information that comes across in the Information Age to the average person. Do you think that this in unhealthy?

Michael L Dertouzos: Any excess of this kind is unhealthy, like eating ten chocolates a day. I have faith that the self-preservation instincts we have carried for thousands of years will make us throw away the infojunk before suffering too much.


Question: What is the main audience you are trying to reach with this book?

Michael L Dertouzos: All people with a great interest in where we are headed with the new world of information.


Question: Michael -- Hey there -- I saw you on CNET the other night, and at the end you said that the future lies in speech-understanding programs -- can you elaborate and also project when will this hit the mainstream (like how the Windows interface replaced the DOS C:> prompt?)

Michael L Dertouzos: I expect speech interfaces to be available for a few hundred dollars within five to seven years. They will be dominant because we are born with mouths and ears, not keyboards and mouse sockets. But they will not be the only human interfaces.


Question: Who do you think the main players of the technology future will be? Telephone companies? Cable companies? Media companies? Hardware/software companies? Will Microsoft own them all?

Michael L Dertouzos: All of the above will win, because each serves different purposes. No single company can dominate, any more than a single company could have manufactured all the products in the Industrial Age. The real winners and players will be all of us.


Question: You mean that Gates had something new to say in his book?

Michael L Dertouzos: Each one of the three books I have mentioned has new things to say. Reading all three, and more, contributes to the debate concerning an unknown but exciting future.


Question: I read that you were one of the cohosts at the recently concluded Davos summit. Can you share your thoughts as to whether this gathering of the world's elite had any novel ideas on where information technology is heading and how to best take advantage of it?

Michael L Dertouzos: This get-together of 1,300 CEOs, 300 ministers and prime ministers, and 300 intellectuals, was the most exciting get-together I have ever attended. To have all these people discuss where they feel we are headed, there is tremendous value in our learning from each other.


Question: I have heard the term "ExtraNet." Do you know what it means ??

Michael L Dertouzos: No.


Question: Is the Clinton/Gore administration forward thinking in terms of technology ? What are some of the key initiatives ?

Michael L Dertouzos: They are among the most forward-thinking administrations in the world. The top current initiative is the wiring of America's schools.


Question: As director of the Laboratory for Computer Science at MIT, you must see a lot of exciting and futuristic technologies. Where do you think the biggest breakthroughs will come from?

Michael L Dertouzos: The biggest breakthrough ahead is not a gadget, or a piece of software. It is the huge effect of multiple technologies coming into the lives of us ancient humans, and helping us live and work, laugh, and play, with a modern set of tools. It will be a movement as big as, or bigger than, the Industrial Revolution. I am privileged to be part of it, as I know you feel also. And I thank you, and everyone else, for a great set of questions.


Moderator: Michael Dertouzos has left the auditorium, to deliver a speech on many of the same topics raised in tonight's chat. Thank you for participating!
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