Wireless Communications: The Future / Edition 1

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Overview

Predicting the future is an essential element for almost everyone involved in the wireless industry. Manufacturers predict the future when they decide on product lines to develop or research to undertake, operators when they buy licences and deploy networks, and academics when they set PhD topics. Wireless Communications: The Future provides a solid, clear and well-argued basis on which to make these predictions.

Starting with a description of the current situation and a look at how previous predictions made in 2000 have fared, the book then provides the contributions of six eminent experts from across the wireless industry. Based on their input and a critical analysis of the current situation, it derives detailed forecasts for 2011 through to 2026. This leads to implications across all of the different stakeholders in the wireless industry and views on key developments.

Presents clear and unambiguous predictions, not a range of scenarios from which the user has to decide, Includes chapters covering existing wireless systems which provide solid tutorial material across a wide range of wireless devices, Offers a range of views of the future from high profile contributors in various areas of the industry and from around the globe, including contributions from Vodafone and Motorola, Provides a comprehensive guide to current technologies, offering keen analysis of key drivers, end user needs and key economic and regulatory constraints. This book, compiled by a renowned author with a track record of successful prediction, is an essential read for strategists working for wireless manufacturers, wireless operators and device manufacturers, regulators and professionals in the telecomsindustry, as well as those studying the topic or with a general interest in the future of wireless communications.

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Product Details

  • ISBN-13: 9780470033128
  • Publisher: Wiley
  • Publication date: 3/16/2007
  • Edition description: New Edition
  • Edition number: 1
  • Pages: 274
  • Product dimensions: 6.93 (w) x 9.76 (h) x 0.89 (d)

Meet the Author

William Webb is Head of R&D and Senior Technologist, Ofcom, UK. William is a Fellow of the Royal Academy of Engineering, and has worked in the wireless communications industry since his graduation in 1989. William has published over 60 papers in various journals, chairs some six conferences a year, including the 3GSM Congress and the BlueTooth Congress, and speaks at many more.
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Table of Contents


Preface     xv
Acknowledgements     xvii
About the Author     xix
Predicting the Future is a Necessary Part of Business     1
Previous Predictions have been Accurate     3
Introduction     3
There have been Huge Changes in the Telecoms Climate     3
What we Predicted for the Period 2000-2005     6
How Well did we do?     7
Our Predictions for 2005-2010     8
How Good do these Predictions Look Now?     9
Implications for Forecasting the Future     9
How to put Together a Forecast     11
The Current Position     13
The Value of a Good Understanding of the Starting Position     13
Mobile Communications     14
Cellular     14
Introduction to Cellular [1-3]     14
2G Cellular     15
3G Cellular     17
WiMax for Mobile Applications     18
'4G' Cellular     19
Convergent Technologies     21
Summary for Cellular     22
Private Mobile Radio     22
Introduction     22
Analogue Communications     23
Digital Communications     23
Mobile Mesh Systems     24
Cognitive Radio     25
Fixed wireless     27
Introduction     27
Key Drivers for Fixed Wireless     27
Key Competitors to Fixed Wireless     28
Likely Success of Fixed Wireless     28
Enlarging the Market with a Nomadic Offering     29
The Prognosis for Fixed Wireless     29
Short-range Devices     30
Introduction     30
Overview of the Standards for Short-range Devices     31
Ultra Wideband (UWB)     32
Wireless LANs [5]     33
BlueTooth [6]     34
DECT     35
Zigbee     35
RFIDs     36
The Prognosis for Short-range Devices     36
Core Networks     37
Broadcasting     39
Conventional Broadcasting     39
Mobile Broadcasting     41
Industry Structure     42
Summary     42
Appendix: The Role for OFDM     43
OFDM is Increasingly in Favour     43
A Quick Introduction to OFDM     43
Multipath: the Key Difference between OFDM and SCM     44
Equalisers may become too Complex to be Realisable     45
Problems Specific to OFDM     45
Specific Applications     45
So is OFDM the New 'Technology of Choice'?     48
References     48
End User Demand     49
Why What the User Wants is Critical     49
How People React to New Concepts     49
Changing Patterns of Spending     51
What they have Today     53
What they want Now     53
Security, Privacy and Health Concerns     55
The Handset Subsidy Problem     56
In Summary     57
Technology Progress     59
Technology is a Critical Input to any Forecast     59
Key Technical Fundamentals: The 'True' Laws     60
Key Technical Observations: The 'Empirical' Laws     62
Moore's Law     62
Metcalfe's Law     63
Gilder's Law     64
Cooper's Law     65
Edholm's Law     67
Growth in Disk Size     68
Goodhart's Law     70
Laws or Trends?     70
Technologies on the 'Radar Screen'     70
Technologies Enhancing the Efficiency of Transmission     71
Software-defined Radio      71
Smart Antennas     71
Wireless Mesh Networking     72
Interference Cancellation     73
Cognitive Radio     74
Technologies Lowering Cost: Backhaul     74
Technologies Enhancing Interaction with Terminals     76
Technologies Leading to 'Artificial Intelligence'     84
Compression Technologies     85
Technology Prognosis: No Key Breakthroughs     85
Implications for the Future     85
References     86
Major World Events     87
Introduction     87
World Events     87
Events in Related Industries     89
Summary     90
The Next Chapters     90
Future Military Wireless Solutions   Paul S. Cannon   Clive R. Harding     91
Introduction     91
Operational Context     92
Technical Features Important to Secure and Robust Global Military Communications     93
New Platforms and Missions: Their Impact on Military Communication Systems     94
Impact of Unmanned Vehicles     94
Impact of High-Altitude Platforms (HAPs)     95
Impact of Future Infantry Soldier Technology      96
Impact of Wireless Sensor Networks     96
Developments in Military Communications Systems     97
Introduction     97
Very Low-Frequency (VLF) Communications     97
High-Frequency (HF) Communications     98
Terrestrial VHF, UHF and SHF Tactical Communications     99
Satellite Communications     100
Emerging Communications Techniques     103
Introduction     103
Ad-hoc Networks     103
Disruption-Tolerant Networks (DTN)     103
Software-Defined Radio (SDR)     104
Environmental Modelling for Communications Management     106
Spectrum Management and Utilisation     107
Smart Antennas for Military Communications     109
The Push to Higher RF Frequencies and Laser Communications     109
Ultra Wideband (UWB) Techniques     110
Communications Security     110
Some Emerging Technologies with Communications Relevance     111
Introduction     111
Beyond Silicon Technologies     111
Potential of Nanotechnology     111
Quantum Cryptography and Quantum Computing     112
Negative Refractive Materials and Their Applications     113
Low-power High-stability Reference Sources     113
Power Sources     113
The Role for Commercial Off-the-shelf for Military Communications     114
Summary and Conclusions     114
Acknowledgements     115
References     115
Biographies     115
From the Few to the Many: Macro to Micro   Peter Cochrane     117
In the Beginning     117
The Need for Planning, Regulation and Control     118
Some General Trends     120
What do People Want and Need?     122
What can People Expect/Have?     123
Likely Technology Developments     124
Home and Office     124
Manufacturing, Retail and Logistics     126
Logistics of Things and People     126
Parasitic Networks     127
Mobile Sensor Networks     128
Clusters of People and Things     128
Finally     129
Biography     131
The Role of Ad-hoc Technology in the Broadband Wireless Networks of the Future   Gary Grube   Hamid Ahmadi     133
Introduction     133
The Need for Flexible Wireless Broadband Solutions     134
Current and Emerging Models of Peer-to-Peer Broadband Connectivity     136
Wireless Home Networks     136
Military Applications     137
Public Safety     137
Private and Public Transportation     138
Metro-area Broadband Networks     139
Mining and Manufacturing     139
Corporate Networks     139
Sensor Networks and Things-to-Things Communication     140
Enabling the Next Generation of Ad-hoc Connectivity     140
Types of Ad-hoc Network     142
Autonomous Peer-to-Peer Networks     142
Hybrid Mesh Networks     143
Integrated Ad-hoc and Wide Area Networks     144
Linking of Ad-hoc Workgroups     144
Extension of carrier broadband networks     144
Enhanced Network Performance     144
Enabling Technologies     145
Self-configuration and Self-organisation     145
Multi-hopping and Dynamic Routing of Data Packets     145
Smart Sensors and Devices     146
Location-awareness     146
Low-power and Energy-scavenging Technologies     146
End User Control over Preferences and Privacy     147
New Business and Usage Models     147
Benefits of Ad-hoc Technology Wireless Carriers and Internet Providers     150
Incumbent Wireless Carriers     150
Cable Broadband Operators     150
'Mom and Pop' Wisps     151
Greenfield Operators     151
Marketers     151
A Decentralised Future and Boundless Opportunities     152
Reference     152
Biographies     153
Interference and Our Wireless Future   Dennis A. Roberson     155
Introduction     155
History     156
Spectrum Scarcity     157
Regulatory Directions Toward Scarcity Amelioration     157
Scarcity Amelioration Approaches     162
Emerging Wireless Communications Devices and Systems     162
References     165
Biography     166
Three Ages of Future Wireless Communications   Simon Saunders     167
Introduction     167
The Age of Wireless Proliferation: 2007 to 2011     169
Introduction     169
Services and Applications     170
Devices     172
Infrastructure     173
Air Interfaces     173
Spectrum     174
The Age of Wireless Similarity: 2012 to 2016     175
Introduction     175
Services and Applications     175
Devices     176
Infrastructure     176
Air Interfaces     177
Spectrum     178
The Age of Wireless Mundanity: 2017 to 2026     179
Introduction     179
Services and Applications     179
Devices     180
Infrastructure     180
Air Interfaces     181
Spectrum     181
Conclusions and Summary     182
Reference     183
Biography     184
Mobile Cellular Radio Technology Disruption   Stephen Temple CBE     185
Extrapolating from the Past 25 Years of Public Mobile Radio     185
The Law of Large Network Momentum     187
Third-generation W-CDMA Future     188
Fourth-generation Technology     190
Where does this Leave the Switch-off of GSM?     192
The 3G Cellular Radio Network Landscape Ten Years from now     194
Convergence as a Disruptive Force     195
Convergence: Mobile and Broadcasting     195
Convergence: Internet and Telephone Services     197
Convergence and the 'Battle for the Home'     198
Broadband Heavy-user Homes     200
Broadband Light-user Homes     202
Homes with no DSL Connection     203
Convergence and the Evolution of Mobile Handsets     203
Summary Impact of Convergence as a Disruptive Force     204
The Blindside Forces of Disruption     205
Governments     205
Regulatory Loose Cannons     206
Disruptive Competitors     207
Disruptive Suppliers     207
Gyrating Financial Markets     208
Unpredictable Customers     208
Disruptive Technologies     209
The Global Perspective     209
Summary Vision of the 'Blindside' Forces     210
Conclusions     210
Biography     211
Assimilating the Key Factors     213
Introduction     213
Summary of the Current Position     213
Summary of End User Demand     214
Summary from Technology Advances Section     214
Summary from the Contributors     215
Paul Cannon     215
Peter Cochrane     216
Gary Grube and Hamid Ahmadi     216
Dennis Roberson      216
Simon Saunders     217
Stephen Temple     217
Key Factors brought out by the Contributors     218
Areas not Included in Previous Discussion     218
Connectivity     218
Backhaul     219
Applications     219
Technology     219
Regulation     219
Areas of Disagreement     219
Reaching a Verdict on the Areas of Disagreement     220
Drawing these Key Factors Together     221
The Future Roadmap     223
Introduction     223
Predictions for 2011     223
Predictions for 2016     227
Predictions for 2021     232
Predictions for 2026     233
Key New Applications     235
Key New Technologies     236
Key Changes in Networks     237
Major Growth Areas     238
Areas we Predict Will not be Successful     238
Implications for Stakeholders     239
Manufacturers     239
Operators     239
Service Providers     240
Regulators     240
Academics and Researchers     240
Differences from the Prediction Made in 2000     241
The Future in a Page     243
...And the Elevator Pitch     244
List of Acronyms     245
Index     249
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