Wrong: Why Experts Keep Failing Us and How to Know When Not to Trust Them

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More About This Book

Overview

Our investments are devastated, obesity is epidemic, test scores are in decline, blue-chip companies circle the drain, and popular medications turn out to be ineffective and even dangerous. What happened? Didn't we listen to the scientists, economists and other experts who promised us that if we followed their advice all would be well?

Actually, those experts are a big reason we're in this mess. And, according to acclaimed business and science writer David H. Freedman, such expert counsel usually turns out to be wrong—often wildly so. Wrong reveals the dangerously distorted ways experts come up with their advice, and why the most heavily flawed conclusions end up getting the most attention-all the more so in the online era. But there's hope: Wrong spells out the means by which every individual and organization can do a better job of unearthing the crucial bits of right within a vast avalanche of misleading pronouncements.

Editorial Reviews

Publishers Weekly
Freedman explores how people are so quick to accept expert advice and why it so often steers them off course, whether it's on the economy, the environment, diet. He breaks down how information is gathered and how probabilities are marketed as "truths." The nuanced text is in good hands with George K. Wilson, a seasoned narrator of nonfiction audiobooks. His deep and congenial voice allows listeners to easily enjoy his performance and understand the material. His cadence and emphasis also help listeners through sometimes rather technical passages that a less experienced narrator might not be able to communicate as effectively. A Little, Brown hardcover (Reviews, Apr. 5). (June)
Kirkus Reviews
A revealing look at the fallibility of "experts," and tips on how to glean facts from the mass of published misinformation. Science and business journalist Freedman (Corps Business: The 30 Management Principles of the U.S. Marines, 2000, etc.) begins with the assertion that, statistically, as many as two-thirds of all published studies may be wrong. Medicine, business, economics, social science-no matter the source, area of discipline or director, almost every study is subject to the same variety of factors that contribute to a high percentage of inaccuracy. These include lack of oversight, careless data entry and other forms of human error, as well as more corrupt factors like bias, pandering to a certain audience, manipulating data to achieve a desired outcome, suppressing mistakes to retain funding or earn tenure and industry influence. In addition, the media can distort information, as journals are more interested in publishing new and positive study results to move newsstand copies, and reporters are reluctant to fact-check scientists. The Internet exacerbates error by making information readily accessible, but not necessarily filtered by its reliability and the proliferation of "informal experts" online only blurs the line between fact and presumption. The result is an environment in which many studies get attention, making it difficult for the average information consumer to tell which studies are accurate and which aren't-especially when many studies on the same topic contradict each other. More dangerously, Freedman points out that medical research, especially on prescription drugs, is based on animal testing that often produces misleading or outright harmful results. Even randomized controlled trials, considered to be the "gold standard" of clinical studies, often yield wrong information. So what can we believe? The author includes "simple never-fail rules for not being misled by experts," "characteristics of expert advice we should ignore," etc., to help guide readers toward right information. In good humor, he also includes an appendix detailing "the ways this entire book might be wrong."Informative and engaging, if not groundbreaking news to more cynical readers. Agent: Rick Balkin/The Balkin Agency
More Reviews (1) Fewer Reviews
Michael Washburn
Wrong makes a powerful case for the prevalence of scientific ineptitude.
—The Washington Post

Product Details

  • ISBN-13: 9780316023788
  • Publisher: Little, Brown & Company
  • Publication date: 6/10/2010
  • Pages: 295
  • Sales rank: 217,081
  • Product dimensions: 6.00 (w) x 9.30 (h) x 1.20 (d)

Meet the Author

David H. Freedman (www.freedman.com) is a contributing editor at Inc. Magazine. His articles on science, business and technology have appeared in The Atlantic, Newsweek, The New York Times, The Harvard Business Review, Fast Company, Science, Wired, and many other publications. His previous book (coauthored) is A Perfect Mess, about the useful role of disorder in daily life, business and science. He is also the author of books about the U.S. Marines, computer crime, and artificial intelligence. Freedman casts a critical eye on headline health news at his blog, Making Sense of Medicine.

Table of Contents

Introduction 3

1 Some Expert Observations 14

2 The Trouble with Scientists, Part 1 37

3 The Certainty Principle 68

4 The Idiocy of Crowds 87

5 The Trouble with Scientists, Part 2 104

6 Experts and Organizations 125

7 Experts and the Media 146

8 The Internet and the Technology of Expertise 168

9 Eleven Simple Never-Fail Rules for Not Being Misled By Experts 203

Appendix 1: A Tiny Sampling of Expert Wrongness, Conflict, and Confusion 231

Appendix 2: The Evolution of Expertise 239

Appendix 3: A Brief Sampling of Contemporary, High-Powered, Apparent Scientific Fraud 255

Appendix 4: Is This Book Wrong? 258

Acknowledgments 269

Source Notes 271

Index 285

Customer Reviews

Average Rating 3.5
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  • Anonymous

    Posted October 12, 2010

    Interesting at times but often tedious

    Reads like a compendium of studies and expert pronouncements that we shouldn't always believe. After a while we get the point over and over - something many of us already knew. Still, it's worth reading especially for people who tend to think the experts are always right.

    1 out of 1 people found this review helpful.

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  • Posted June 20, 2010

    David Freedman Knocks it Out of the Park

    When I was alerted to the pre-order for David Freedman's new book, I had no choice but to snatch it right up. Author of so many fascinating articles that I've enjoyed in many of my regular publications (INC, Scientific American, the New York Times, Time, etc.), as well as one of my favorite non-fiction titles of the last 5 years (A Perfect Mess- it's the bible backing my crusade against my controlling, OCD, neat-freak wife and entire extended family), I was both pleased and excited to see that David had completed a project that has never been more timely or prescient.

    Our culture and economy rest within a predominating framework of 'the cult of expertise.' Claimed expertise is what differentiates those in charge, with immense direct and indirect power over so many people's lives, from the lower-level workers with a tiny fraction of their salaries and little control over powerful and fragile forces that could ruin their lives in a second's notice. Politicians who refuse to make informed, principled decisions, the financial industry's collapse, the BP oil spill, global climate change, and massive amounts of local, state, and federal government debt are only several examples of so-called expertise failing us when our country is in dire need of informed, ethical decision-making.

    Mr. Freedman delves deeply into this very pressing matter and illuminates the complex and fascinating issues in such a skilled, persistent, and clear way. This is the type of investigative project that the national discourse needed so badly, and Mr. Freedman delivers. Thank you, and thank you for such a wonderful and enlightening read.

    1 out of 1 people found this review helpful.

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