Identifying Potential Ethnic Conflict: Application of a Process Model

by Thomas S. Szayna (Editor)

Overview

Intrastate communitarian strife, dubbed ethnic conflict, has gained attention in the aftermath of the Cold War. This report outlines a model for anticipating the occurrence of communitarian and ethnic conflict. The model is not a mechanistic tool, but a process-based heuristic device with a threefold purpose. One, to order the analyst's thinking ab

Product Details

ISBN-13:	9780833028426
Publisher:	RAND Corporation
Publication date:	12/19/2000
Pages:	348
Product dimensions:	5.90(w) x 8.90(h) x 0.90(d)

About the Author

Thomas S. Szayna (Ph.D. program, Political Science, University of California, Los Angeles) is an Associate Political Scientist, International Studies Group, and Associate Director, Strategy, Doctrine, and Resources Program, Arroyo Center, RAND , Santa Monica, CA.

Table of Contents

Chapter One: Introduction
The Context
The Model
Assumptions and Considerations
Organization
Chapter Two: The Process Model for Anticipating Ethnic Conflict
Approaches to Ethnicity
Introducing the Model
Stage I: Investing the Potential for Strife
Stage II: Understanding the Transformation from Potential to LIkely Strife
Stage III: From Likely to Actual Strife: Understanding State Capabilities and the Process of Strategic Bargaining
Chapter Three: The Yugoslav Retrospective Case
Introduction
Assessing the Potential for Strife
Transforming the Potential Strife into Likely Strife
Assessing the State
Strategic Bargaining
Final Observations
Annex: Demographic Characteristics of Yugoslavia in the Late 1980s
Chapter Four: The South African Retrospective Case
Introduction
Assessing the Potential for Strife
Transforming Potential Strife into Likely Strife
Assessing the State
Strategic Bargaining
Final Observations
Annex: Demographic Characteristics of South Africa in the Late 1980s
Chapter Five: The Ethiopian Prospective Case
Introduction
Assessing the Potential for Strife
Transforming Potential Strife into Likely Strife
Primary Scenario: Amhara Mobilization
Secondary Scenario: Oromo Mobilization
Tertiary Scenario: Somali Mobiliation
Assessing the State
Strategic Bargaining
Final Observations
Afterword
Annex: Demographic Characteristics of Ethiopia in 1997-1998
Chapter Six: The Saudi Arabian Prospective Case
Introduction
Assessing the Potential for Strife
TransformingPotential Strife into Likely Strife
Primary Scenario: Shi'ite Mobilization
Other Scenarios
Assessing the State
Strategic Bargaining
Final Observations
Afterword
Annex: Demographic Characteristics of Saudi Arabia in 1997-1998
Chapter Seven: Final Observations
What Do the Case Studies Show?
Benefits of Using the Model
Cautionary Notes on Using the Model
Additional Uses of the Model
Future Research and Further Development of the Model

Editorial Reviews

Well-written and concise. With supplemental readings, this book might serve as the foundation of a course on ethnic conflict.

Nationalities Papers

Achieves what it sets out to do--helping political analysts to order their thinking when observing a political landscape.

African Security Review

The authors introduce a model that enables analysts to track and predict ethnic conflicts. The model is quite comprehensive.

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