Aftershock: Protect Yourself and Profit in the Next Global Financial Meltdown

Aftershock: Protect Yourself and Profit in the Next Global Financial Meltdown


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Product Details

ISBN-13: 9781118375624
Publisher: Wiley
Publication date: 03/31/2014
Pages: 384
Product dimensions: 6.30(w) x 9.00(h) x 1.20(d)

About the Author

David Wiedemer, Phd, is a world leader in macro-evolutionary economic analysis. His work in information dynamics, technological evolution, and economic history form the basis for the predictions in Aftershock. Dr. Wiedemer is the Chief Economist for Absolute Investment Management. He holds a doctorate in economics from the University of Wisconsin-Madison.

Robert A. Wiedemer is a Managing Director of Absolute Investment Management, a macro-focused money management firm that is in alignment with the macroeconomic analysis and perspective of Aftershock.

Cindy Spitzer is an award-winning author who has collaborated on more than twenty books since 1993 including Chicken Soup for the Soul, Buy and Hold Is Dead (Again), America's Bubble Economy, and many others. She is President of Aftershock Consultants, a consulting firm that provides support and insights to individuals, families, and businesses, based on the ideas in Aftershock.

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Table of Contents

Executive Summary xi

Acknowledgments xiii

Preface to the Third Edition of Aftershock xv

Introduction: Your Guide to the Third Edition of Aftershock xix

Part 1 The Coming Aftershock 1

Chapter 1 This Recovery Is 100 Percent Fake 3

Isn’t a Fake Recovery Better than No Recovery at All? 5

If the Aftershock Has Not Been Canceled, Why Hasn’t It Happened Yet? 7

Still Not Sure This Recovery Is 100 Percent Fake? 17

Don’t Believe the Stimulus Has to Eventually End? There Is a Limit to What the Government Can Do 23

Wondering Why the Aftershock Hasn’t Happened Already? “Animal Spirits” Are Keeping Are Keeping Us Going 24

Please Prepare Now 27

Chapter 2 America’s Bubble Economy 31

Because Our Earlier Books Were Right, Now You Can Be Right, Too 36

Didn’t Other Bearish Analysts Get It Right, Too? 39

How the “Experts” Got It So Wrong 41

Predictions from Ben Bernanke and Henry Paulson—We Trust These Officials with Our Economy 46

Where We Have Been Wrong 47

Chapter 3 Phase 1: The Bubbles Begin to Burst 53

Bubbles “R” Us: A Quick Review of America’s Bubble Economy 54

From Boom to Bust: The Virtuous Upward Spiral Becomes a Vicious Downward Spiral 60

Pop Goes the Real Estate Bubble 61

Pop Goes the Stock Market Bubble 68

Pop Goes the Private Debt Bubble 72

Pop Goes the Discretionary Spending Bubble 76

The Biggest, Baddest, Bad Loan of Them All 79

Chapter 4 The Market Cliff 83

The Market Cliff Won’t Be Just a “Down Cycle” 84

Hitting the Market Cliff 89

The Last Resort: A Stock Market Holiday 94

When Is the Best Time to Get Out of the Stock Market? 95

Chapter 5 Massive Money Printing Will Eventually Cause Dangerous Inflation—So Why Hasn’t It Happened Yet? 99

What Is Inflation? 100

What Exactly Is Money Printing? 101

How Does Money Printing Cause Inflation? 102

Central Banks Gone Wild: The World Is Printing Money 104

Where Is Inflation Hiding? 109

1. “Lag Factors” Delay the Onset of Inflation 109

2. Government Statistics Underreport Inflation 112

3. Strong Motivation to Maintain the Bubble Economy Will Delay Most Inflation Until after the Market Cliff 112

The Arguments against Future Inflation Simply Don’t Hold Up 114

This Is Not a Plan, It’s a Panic! 121

The Real Problem with Rising Future Inflation: High Interest Rates 123

The Fed’s Big Blind Spot: They Don’t Understand Where Growth Comes From (Hint: It Doesn’t Come from Rising Bubbles or Massive Money Printing) 127

When Will Inflation Begin? When Group Psychology Turns Negative after the Market Cliff 131

The Inflation Deniers Are Liars! 134

Chapter 6 Phase 2: The Aftershock 137

The Dollar Bubble: Hard to See without Bubble-Vision Glasses 138

The Government Debt Bubble Pops 160

The Aftershock 166

The Six Psychological Stages of Denial 167

Is There Any Scenario for a Soft Landing? 172

Chapter 7 Global Mega-Money Meltdown 173

The United States Will Suffer the Least 174

Think of the World’s Bubble Economy in Two Categories: Manufacturing and Resource Extraction 175

How the Bursting Bubbles Will Impact the World 179

If the World’s Bubble Economy Is Hit Harder than the U.S. Bubble Economy, Won’t That Be Good for the Dollar? 188

If the Rest of the World Is Collapsing, Won’t That Be Good for Gold? 188

International Investment Recommendations 190

Part 2 Aftershock Dangers and Profits 193

Chapter 8 Covering Your Assets 195

The Three Rules for Not Losing Money 195

These Rules Are Simple but Not Easy! 196

Long Term versus Short Term 199

Rule 1: Exit Stocks Well Before the Market Cliff 201

Rule 2: Stay Away from Real Estate Until after All the Bubbles Pop 207

Rule 3: Avoid Bonds and Most Fixed-Rate Investments as Interest Rates Rise 219

Where’s the Best Place to Stash Cash? 221

How Long Must We Follow These Three Rules? 222

Letting Go Is Hard to Do 222

What Else Can I Do to Protect Myself? 225

Remember, Your Net Worth Is Not Your Self-Worth 228

Chapter 9 Cashing In on Chaos 229

Plenty of Profit Opportunities, but They Will Feel Quite Uncomfortable, Even Scary at Times 229

This Economy Is Evolving; Your Investments Should Evolve, Too 230

Three Goals of an Evolving Aftershock Investment Portfolio 232

Reducing Risk with a New Kind of Diversification 233

Timing Is Everything before the Bubbles Pop, but It Won’t Be Perfect 247

Aftershock Investing after the Bubbles Pop: Gold, Foreign Currencies, and Foreign Bonds 248

Putting It All Together: Aftershock in Action 253

Chapter 10 Aftershock Jobs and Businesses 257

The Rising Bubble Economy Created Huge Job Growth; Now the Falling Bubble Economy Means Fewer Jobs 258

Conventional Wisdom about Future Job Growth Is Based on Faith that the Future Will Be Like the Past 260

Why Conventional Wisdom on Jobs Is Wrong 261

What’s a Savvy Aftershock Investor to Do? 262

The Falling Bubbles Will Have Varying Impacts on Three Broad Economic Sectors 265

Should I Go to College? 274

Opportunities after the Bubbles Pop: Cashing In on Distressed Assets 275

Dig Your Well before You Are Thirsty 277

Chapter 11 Understanding Our Problems Is the First Step Toward Solving Our Problems 279

If You Don’t Understand Why an Economy Grows, You Can’t Understand Why It Doesn’t Grow 279

You Need to See the Big Picture before You Start to Focus 280

Key Breakthroughs in the History of Economic Thought 282

Economics Needs a Breakthrough Big-Picture Idea like Geology Needed Continental Drift 289

So Why Aren’t We Getting an Alfred Wegener or a Breakthrough Idea like Continental Drift? 291

Economists Have Become Academia’s Version of Financial Cheerleaders 291

The Demands to Get Tenure and the Rewards of the Good Life after Tenure Have Delivered a One-Two Punch to Creative Economic Thought 292

Where to Now? Answer: Economics Needs to Move from Being a Collection of Competing Philosophies to Being a
Unified Science 295

Four Key Elements for Making Economics More of a Science 297

Where Do We Stand Today in Making This Transition? 301

The Economics Profession Does Not Want to Make This Transition 302

The Solution to the Lack of Interest in Making Important Changes in Economics: The Coming Aftershock 304

Chapter 12 Our Predictions Have Been Mostly Accurate, So Why Do Some People Still Dislike Them? 307

It’s Not a Cheerleading Book 309

It’s Not a Complex Book (Although It Is Based on Complex Analysis) 310

It’s Not a Crazy Book 313

It’s Not an Academic Book 313

It’s Not Suggesting Armageddon 314

It’s Not a Reality-Denying Book 314

Us versus the Comforters: How Aftershock Stacks Up against Other Bearish Books 315

Epilogue: Say Good-Bye to the Age of Excess 323

Appendix: Are the Bond, Stock, and Gold Markets Manipulated? 327

Bibliography 339

Index 345

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Aftershock: Protect Yourself and Profit in the Next Global Financial Meltdown 4.5 out of 5 based on 0 ratings. 2 reviews.
Anonymous More than 1 year ago
The authors have proven accurate in their financial forecasts in the past, but there still is risk in their recommendations because no one can anticipate all potential problems, which the authors readily admit. They offer very solid research and explanations, and the book is a very good resource for financial decisions. Carefully consider what they recommend and make wise, not emotional decisions. I recommend getting the latest edition.
Anonymous More than 1 year ago