American Confusion from Vietnam to Kosovo: Coping with Chaos in High Places

by William R Taylor M.D.

Overview

Taylor applies his theory of the "dynamics of confusion" to the 1965 US expansion of the Vietnam War, and forecasts events in real time during the NATO air war against Serbia in 1999.

Dr. Taylor presents an original theory of the dynamics of confusion in governments and in the lives of ordinary citizens. His model postulates a vicious cycle in which the causes of confusion evoke coping tactics that often worsen those causes. One of the most destructive coping tactics, "Find-an-Enemy-and-Lose-Your-Confusion" spawns conflict and increases the lies and other information pathology already circulating. "Exports" from this vicious cycle include environmental depredation, political oppression, war and death.

Using his model, he illuminates the binds entrapping Robert McNamara and Lyndon Johnson as they expanded the Vietnam War in 1965. He then extends the theory using fuzzy cognitive maps (FCMs), and submits the model to the ultimate test: forecasting in "real time" certain events in the 1999 NATO-Serbia War and its aftermath. He published these predictions on his web site during and after that war.

This project represents the first use of FCMs to forecast political-military events in real time.

The concluding chapters test whether a knowledge of confusion dynamics will increase empathy between opponents, and whether the model is useful for planning humanitarian efforts by betterment organizations.

Product Details

ISBN-13:	9780595148097
Publisher:	iUniverse, Incorporated
Publication date:	02/01/2001
Pages:	516
Product dimensions:	6.00(w) x 9.00(h) x 1.15(d)

Table of Contents

	Diagrams	ix
	Tables	xi
	Acknowledgements	xiii
	Abbreviations	xv
	Introduction	xvii
Chapter 1	Amplifying The Definition of Confusion	3
Chapter 2	Spotlighting The Sources	14
Chapter 3	Complexity: Overload's Fashionable Twin	22
Chapter 4	The Complete Array of Confusion Sources	36
Chapter 5	Coping with Confusing Situations	56
Chapter 6	Connections Among Coping Methods	79
Chapter 7	Oversimplified Initial Version of The 1965 Vietnam War Expansion Decision	93
Chapter 8	Confusion Dynamics in The 1965 Decision to Escalate	108
Chapter 9	Conflicting Agendas Binding McNamara and Westmoreland	131
Chapter 10	More Elements in The Dilemma	143
Chapter 11	Failure of Peace Initiatives	158
Chapter 12	Robert McNamara's Recommendations Based on The Vietnam Experience	170
Chapter 13	Forecasting With Fuzzy Cognitive Maps During and After The Kosovo War	177
Chapter 14	Kosovo Section of The Web Site	183
Chapter 15	The War Goes On	213
Chapter 16	Interrupting The Web Site Transcript to Examine My Own Confusion	225
Chapter 17	Returning to The Web Site Excerpts	232
Chapter 18	Combining The US/NATO and Serbian Matrices	242
Chapter 19	The Approach of "Peace"	258
Chapter 20	More Complexities in Peace	273
Chapter 21	Trying to Incorporate The Serb Perspective, and A Possible Role For The CIA	278
Chapter 22	Continued Disarray	292
Chapter 23	Russia, China, India Form Alliance to Counter Us Dominance	300
Chapter 24	Seeking Tools for Clarification 1: Individual Efforts	329
Chapter 25	Seeking Tools For Clarification 2: Group and Organizational Efforts Toward More Effective Reforms	357
	Afterword	375
	About the Author	383
	Appendix A	385
	Appendix B	391
	Appendix C	395
	Appendix D	399
	Glossary	415
	References	421
	Index	423
	Endnotes	455