An Introduction to Time Series Analysis and Forecasting: With Applications of SAS and SPSS / Edition 1

An Introduction to Time Series Analysis and Forecasting: With Applications of SAS and SPSS / Edition 1

by Robert Alan Yaffee, Monnie McGee
ISBN-10:
0127678700
ISBN-13:
9780127678702
Pub. Date:
04/01/2000
Publisher:
Elsevier Science
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Overview

An Introduction to Time Series Analysis and Forecasting: With Applications of SAS and SPSS / Edition 1

Providing a clear explanation of the fundamental theory of time series analysis and forecasting, this book couples theory with applications of two popular statistical packages—SAS and SPSS. The text examines moving average, exponential smoothing, Census X-11 deseasonalization, ARIMA, intervention, transfer function, and autoregressive error models and has brief discussions of ARCH and GARCH models. The book features treatments of forecast improvement with regression and autoregression combination models and model and forecast evaluation, along with a sample size analysis for common time series models to attain adequate statistical power. The careful linkage of the theoretical constructs with the practical considerations involved in utilizing the statistical packages makes it easy for the user to properly apply these techniques.

  • Describes principal approaches to time series analysis and forecasting
  • Presents examples from public opinion research, policy analysis, political science, economics, and sociology
  • Math level pitched to general social science usage
  • Glossary makes the material accessible for readers at all levels

Product Details

ISBN-13: 9780127678702
Publisher: Elsevier Science
Publication date: 04/01/2000
Series: Time Series
Edition description: New Edition
Pages: 528
Product dimensions: 1.19(w) x 6.14(h) x 9.21(d)

Table of Contents

Preface.
Introduction and Overview.
Extrapolative Models and Decomposition Models.
Introduction to Box-Jenkins Time Series Analysis.
The Basic ARIMA Model.
Seasonal ARIMA Models.
Estimation and Diagnosis.
Metadiagnosis and Forecasting. Intervention Analysis.
Transfer Function Models.
Autoregressive Error Models.
A Review of Model and Forecast Evaluation.
M. McGee, Power Analysis and Sample Size Determination for Well-Known Time Series Models.
Appendix A.
Glossary.
Index.

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