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Future Savvy: Identifying Trends to Make Better Decisions, Manage Uncertainty, and Profit from Change
     

Future Savvy: Identifying Trends to Make Better Decisions, Manage Uncertainty, and Profit from Change

by Adam Gordon
 

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ISBN-10: 0814409121

ISBN-13: 9780814409121

Pub. Date: 09/24/2008

Publisher: AMACOM

In order to succeed in their industries, decision-makers today need to anticipate the future outcomes not only in their own industry but also in society and technology as well. The better their view of the future, the better their decisions—and the bigger their profits–will be. Future Savvy is a hands-on, how-to book on evaluating the business,

Overview

In order to succeed in their industries, decision-makers today need to anticipate the future outcomes not only in their own industry but also in society and technology as well. The better their view of the future, the better their decisions—and the bigger their profits–will be. Future Savvy is a hands-on, how-to book on evaluating the business, social, and technology forecasts that appear in everyday communications such as newspapers and business magazines, as well as in specialized sources like government and think-tank forecasts, consultant reports, and stock-market guides. Futures analyst Adam Gordon has spent his career deciphering changes and trends in a variety of industries. Now, he shows business leaders how to gain a clearer view of the future, as well as:

• Recognize potential trends and outcomes more effectively

• Discount poor and biased forecasts more confidently

• Anticipate relevant opportunities and potential threats earlier

Product Details

ISBN-13:
9780814409121
Publisher:
AMACOM
Publication date:
09/24/2008
Pages:
304
Product dimensions:
6.00(w) x 9.10(h) x 1.30(d)
Age Range:
17 Years

Table of Contents

CONTENTS

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ix

INTRODUCTION 1

CHAPTER 1: Recognizing Forecast Intentions 17

CHAPTER 2: The Quality of Information: How Good Is the Data? 39

CHAPTER 3: Bias Traps: How and Why Interpretations Are Spun 61

CHAPTER 4: Zeitgeist and Perception: How We Can’t Escape Our Own Mind 83

CHAPTER 5: The Power of User Utility: How Consumers Drive and Block Change105

CHAPTER 6: Drivers, Blockers, and Trends 133

CHAPTER 7: The Limits of Quantitative Forecasting 153

CHAPTER 8: A Systems Perspective in Forecasting 173

CHAPTER 9: Alternative Futures: How It’s Better to Be Vaguely Right than Exactly Wrong 197

CHAPTER 10: Applying Forecast Filtering 215

CHAPTER 11: Questions to Ask of Any Forecast 263

FURTHER READING 285

INDEX 289

6894fm01.qxp_jt 7/21/08 2:13 PM Page viii

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