William Conerly, Ph.D. is the principal of Conerly Consulting LLC, which helps business leaders make more profitable decisions through a better understanding of the economy. He holds a Ph.D. in economics from Duke University and an undergraduate economics degree from New College. He worked in corporate economics positions at Pacific Gas and Electric Company, NERCO Inc., and First Interstate Bank, where he was senior vice president. Dr. Conerly is coauthor of Thinking Economics, a high school textbook used in twenty-four states. Two of his articles are required reading in graduate courses at MIT and Wharton. He has been quoted in Fortune magazine, the Wall Street Journal, and USA Today and interviewed on The News Hour with Jim Lehrer, CNN, and CNBC. Dr. Conerly is chairman of the board of Cascade Policy Institute, a member of the Governor's Council of Economic Advisors, and a senior fellow at the National Center for Policy Analysis. He resides in Lake Oswego, Oregon.
Acknowledgments iv Introduction: Better Decisions Through Economics v It's Not Just about Forecasting 1 Cycles in Your Sector of the Economy 10 How to Anticipate Recessions and Downturns 40 Inflation: Recession Triggers and Profit Squeezes 90 Planning for a Downturn: Vulnerability and Flexibility 110 The Early Warning System: Radar for Business 128 Managing Through the Business Cycle 148 Foreign Economic Cycles: The Extra Worries of the Overseas Manager 171 Regional Economic Cycles: Your Local Economy 200 Industry Cycles: Be Prepared for Trouble in Your Sector of the Economy 221 Economics and the Stock Market 234 The Economic Case for America 247 Data Sources 255 Index 261