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Climate change threatens not only the environment but global peace and security as well. Climatic Cataclysm brings together experts on climate science, foreign policy, political science, oceanography, history, and national security to take measure of these risks.
The contributors examine three scenarios as a basis for future planning. The first scenario projects the likely effects of the expected level of climate change over the next thirty years, based on current scientific models. The severe scenario, based on a much stronger response to current levels of carbon loading, foresees profound and potentially destabilizing global effects over the next generation or more. Finally, the catastrophic scenario is characterized by a devastating "tipping point" in the climate system, perhaps fifty or one hundred years hence. In this future world, the land-based polar ice sheets have disappeared, global sea levels have risen dramatically, and the existing natural order has been destroyed beyond repair.
Climatic Cataclysm analyzes the security implications of these scenarios, ranging from disease proliferation, large-scale migration, and increased low-intensity conflict to the risk of nuclear war. It also considers the lessons that can be learned from previous civilizations confronted with natural disaster and asks what three of the largest emitters of greenhouse gases-the United States, the European Union, and China-can do to reduce and manage future risks.
Climate change may prove to be the single greatest challenge confronting the United States and, indeed, human civilization. Climatic Cataclysm helps explain why.
|Publisher:||Brookings Institution Press|
|Edition description:||New Edition|
|Product dimensions:||6.20(w) x 9.10(h) x 1.10(d)|
About the Author
Kurt M. Campbell is CEO and cofounder of the Center for a New American Security. He served as deputy assistant secretary of defense for Asia and the Pacific in the Clinton administration. Before that, he taught at Harvard University's John F. Kennedy School of Government and served in the Navy. His books include Hard Power:The New Politics of National Security, written with Michael O'Hanlon (Basic Books, 2006).
Table of Contents
National Security and Climate Change in Perspective Kurt M. Campbell Christine Parthemore 1
Can History Help with Global Warming? J. R. McNeill 26
Three Plausible Scenarios of Future Climate Change Jay Gulledge 49
Security Implications of Climate Scenario 1: Expected Climate Change over the Next Thirty Years John Podesta Peter Ogden 97
Security Implications of Climate Scenario 2: Severe Climate Change over the Next Thirty Years Leon Fuerth 133
Security Implications of Climate Scenario 3: Catastrophic Climate Change over the Next One Hundred Years Sharon Burke 155
A Partnership Deal: Malevolent and Malignant Threats R. James Woolsey 169
Setting the Negotiating Table: The Race to Replace Kyoto by 2012 Julianne Smith Alexander T. J. Lennon 191
Conclusion: The Clear Implications of Global Climate Change Kurt M. Campbell Richard Weitz 213