Table of Contents
Introduction 11
1 Macro Reset 21
1.1 Conceptual framework - Three defining characteristics of today's world 21
1.1.1 Interdependence 22
1.1.2 Velocity 26
1.1.3 Complexity 31
1.2 Economic reset 36
1.2.1 The economics of COVID-19 36
1.2.1.1 Uncertainty 39
1.2.1.2 The economic fallacy of sacrificing a few lives to save growth 42
1.2.2 Growth and employment 46
1.2.2.1 Economic growth 47
1.2.2.2 Employment 51
1.2.2.3 What future growth could look like 57
1.2.3 Fiscal and monetary policies 65
1.2.3.1 Deflation or inflation? 68
1.2.3.2 The fate of the US dollar 72
1.3 Societal reset 76
1.3.1 Inequalities 79
1.3.2 Social unrest 83
1.3.3 The return of "big" government 89
1.3.4 The social contract 95
1.4 Geopolitical reset 103
1.4.1 Globalization and nationalism 105
1.4.2 Global governance 114
1.4.3 The growing rivalry between China and the US 119
1.4.4 Fragile and failing states 127
1.5 Environmental reset 133
1.5.1 Coronavims and the environment 137
1.5.1.1 Nature and zoonotic diseases 137
1.5.1.2 Air pollution and pandemic risk 139
1.5.1.3 Lockdown and carbon emissions 141
1.5.2 Impact of the pandemic on climate change and other environmental policies 142
1.6 Technological reset 151
1.6.1 Accelerating the digital transformation 153
1.6.1.1 The consumer 154
1.6.1.2 The regulator 155
1.6.1.3 The firm 156
1.6.2 Contact tracing, contact tracking and surveillance 159
1.6.3 The risk of dystopia 166
2 Micro Reset (Industry and Business) 173
2.1 Micro trends 175
2.1.1 Acceleration of digitization 176
2.1.2 Resilient supply chains 180
2.1.3 Governments and business 182
2.1.4 Stakeholder capitalism and ESG 185
2.2 Industry reset 190
2.2.1 Social interaction and de-densification 191
2.2.2 Behavioural changes - permanent vs transient 196
2.2.3 Resilience 204
3 Individual Reset 211
3.1 Redefining our humanness 212
3.1.1 The better angels in our nature… or not 212
3.1.2 Moral choices 217
3.2 Mental health and well-being 224
3.3 Changing priorities 232
3.3.1 Creativity 234
3.3.2 Time 236
3.3.3 Consumption 238
3.3.4 Nature and well-being 240
Conclusion 243
Acknowledgements 251
Endnotes 253