Deception: Counterdeception and Counterintelligence

Deception: Counterdeception and Counterintelligence

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Product Details

ISBN-13: 9781506375236
Publisher: SAGE Publications
Publication date: 02/14/2018
Pages: 312
Sales rank: 704,760
Product dimensions: 5.90(w) x 8.90(h) x 0.70(d)

About the Author

Robert M. Clark has more than five decades of U.S. intelligence community experience. A USAF lieutenant colonel (retired), Dr. Clark served as an electronics warfare officer and intelligence officer. At the CIA, he was a senior analyst and group chief responsible for developing analytic methodologies. He was cofounder and CEO of the Scientific and Technical Analysis Corporation, a privately held company serving the U.S. intelligence community. Clark holds an SB from MIT, a PhD in electrical engineering from the University of Illinois, and a JD from George Washington University. Beyond analyzing wicked intelligence issues, his passion is writing on the topic of intelligence. His books include Intelligence Analysis: A Target-Centric Approach (5th edition, 2016), The Technical Collection of Intelligence (2010), and Intelligence Collection (2014). He is coauthor, with Dr. William Mitchell, of Target-Centric Network Modeling (2015) and Deception: Counterdeception and Counterintelligence (2019); and coeditor, with Dr. Mark Lowenthal, of Intelligence Collection: The Five Disciplines (2015). Dr. Clark also develops and teaches courses for audiences in academia, national intelligence, and the military. He currently serves as an adjunct professor at the Johns Hopkins University teaching graduate courses.


William L. Mitchell’s military and intelligence career spans three decades including operations in Afghanistan, the Balkans, Iraq, Africa, and French Guyana. Dr. Mitchell is currently an active member of Danish Defence and an all-source specialist, researcher, instructor, and lecturer. At the Royal Danish Defence College (RDDC) he is responsible for the synchronization of theory, practice, and education regarding intelligence and joint operations. He is a member of the RDDC Research Board and supports NATO and US Department of Defense research, education, and doctrine development programs. He has several publications on intelligence and battlespace agility, and was part of the NATO Science & Technology Organization group awarded the 2014 NATO Scientific Achievement Award. Dr. Mitchell has a BA, an MA with Distinction from Kent University, and a PhD from Aarhus University in Political Science. He is a decorated war veteran of two countries, with one citation and several medals, including the French Croix de Combatant and the Danish Defence medal.

Table of Contents

List of Tables, Figures, and Boxes xiii

Preface xvii

About the Authors xx

Part I Fundamentals of Deception and Counterdeception

Chapter 1 Deception: The Basics 3

Why Deception? 6

Definitions 9

Deception 9

Counterdeception 10

Counterintelligence 11

Operations 12

Psychological Operations 12

The Deception Target 12

The Decision Maker 12

The Intelligence Service 13

A Defined Group 14

Basic Principles 17

Truth 17

Denial 19

Deceit 21

Misdirection 23

Roles of Operations and Intelligence 25

Notes 28

Chapter 2 The Methodology 31

The OODA Loop 32

OODA Loop Perspectives 33

Perspective 1-Understand Your Own OODA Loop 34

Perspective 2-Understand the Adversary's OODA Loop 35

Perspective 3-Understand How the Adversary Views Your OODA Loop 36

Planning Deception: The Inverse OODA Loop 37

Executing Deception: The Forward OODA Loop 40

Notes 43

Chapter 3 The Outcome Scenario 45

Outcome Scenarios: The PMESII View 45

Political 47

Military 48

Economic 50

Social 51

Information 52

Infrastructure 54

Notes 55

Chapter 4 The Target 57

Individual Decision Modeling 57

Rational Models 58

Administrative Models 60

Emotional Models 61

Collective Decision Modeling 62

Game Theory 63

Modeling Alternative Decisions 65

Cultural Modeling 67

Power Distance Index 68

Individualism versus Collectivism 69

Uncertainty Avoidance 70

Masculinity versus Femininity 72

Long-Term Orientation versus Short-Term Orientation 73

Indulgence versus Restraint 74

Notes 76

Chapter 5 The Story 79

What Makes a Good Story? 79

Characteristics of a Good Deception Story 80

Plausibility 81

Reinforcement 84

Influence Nets 86

Notes 88

Chapter 6 The Channels 89

Understanding the Channels 90

Sensor Mapping 91

Observation 92

Orientation 94

Channel Characterization 94

Modeling the "Black Box" of Orientation 96

The Case of the Daesh 2013-2014 Intelligence Organization 96

Channel Exploitation 99

Notes 101

Chapter 7 The Traditional Intelligence Channels 103

OSINT 104

COMINT 107

Helping COMINT Deception Succeed 109

Deceiving Traffic Analysis 110

HUMINT 111

Overt HUMINT 112

Clandestine HUMINT 114

IMINT 115

Technical Collection 117

Radar 117

Electronic Intelligence (ELINT) 118

Foreign Instrumentation Signals Intelligence (FISINT) 119

Acoustic and Infrasound 119

Notes 120

Chapter 8 The Cyberspace Channel 121

Deception in Cyberspace 122

Web-Based Deception 122

News and Reference Media 123

E-mails 124

Social Media 124

Memetic Conflict 125

Web-Based CNE/CNA 126

Web-Based Channels 127

The Tools of Cyber Operations 129

Standalone Computers and Intranets 134

Social Engineering 134

Deception in Hardware 137

Cyber Deception 137

How Cyber Deception Works 138

Projecting a Deception 139

Notes 139

Chapter 9 Planning and Executing Deception 143

Checking the Decision/Action Model: Red Team Analysis 143

Checking for Unfavorable Outcomes: Alternative Analysis 144

Deconfliction 147

Overview of the Execution Process 148

Achieving Surprise 149

Operating inside the Opponent's OODA Loop 152

Attending to Details and Timing 156

Managing the Developing Scenario 157

Notes 159

Chapter 10 Preparing to Counter Deception 161

Assessing Vulnerability 162

Observation [Collection] 162

Orientation (Analysis) 164

Decision/Action (The Decision Maker) 167

Assessing the Threat 168

Assess the Situation 168

Assess the Adversary's History, Capability, and Motivations 168

Assess the Adversary's Understanding of Your OODA Loop 170

Notes 170

Chapter 11 Identifying Deception 173

Deception Detection via Channel Management 173

Evaluating the Source 176

Literal Sources 176

Nonliteral Sources 181

Evaluating the Channel 184

Evaluating the Evidence 186

Traps to Avoid in Evaluating Evidence 186

Evaluating Alternative Hypotheses 187

Notes 188

Part II Exercises

Chapter 12 Sensor Napping and Channel Tracking Exercises 193

Sensor Mapping Exercises 193

Example Exercise in Sensor Modeling: Pirating in the North Sea 194

Sensor Mapping Exercise 12.1: The Red 5th Battalion 197

Sensor Mapping Exercise 12.2: Hells Cross Motorcycle Gang 198

Sensor Mapping Exercise 12.3: People's Party Militia Wing 201

Channel Management Exercises-Deception Projection 203

Channel Management Exercise 12.1: Pick a Port 204

Channel Management Exercise 12.2: Bangui Backroads 206

Note 208

Chapter 13 General Deception Planning Exercises 209

Exercise 1 Derailing a Trade Negotiation 209

Key Participants 210

Guidance 211

Exercise 2 Protecting Drug Cartel Shipments 211

Sea Delivery Option 213

Airborne Delivery Option 213

Cartel OODA 213

US OODA 214

Guidance 216

Exercise 3 Taking Down the Fordow Uranium Enrichment Facility 216

Fordow Background 216

Recent Events 217

Key Personnel at the Fordow Facility 218

Iranian OODA 220

Israeli OODA 220

Guidance 221

Exercise 4: Countering Israeli Efforts to Take Down Fordow 222

Iranian OODA 222

Israeli OODA 223

Guidance 224

Exercise 5 Supporting a NEO Evacuation 224

Background 224

Daesh Background 226

Daesh OODA 227

Libya Dawn Background 227

Libya Dawn OODA 228

Zintan Brigades 228

NATO Force 228

NATO OODA 229

Guidance 230

Exercise 6 Disrupting Boko Haram Operations 230

Boko Haram Background 231

Key Officers 231

Your Resources 233

Channels 234

Guidance 234

Notes 234

Chapter 14 Military Deception Planning Exercises 235

MILDEC CONOR Example: Operation Bulldozer 235

Situation 235

Basic CONOP Format 237

Exercise 1 Operation Lights Out 240

Scenario 240

Situation 243

Task 244

Guidance 246

Exercise 2 Operation Timber Float 246

Scenario 246

Task 250

Guidance 250

Exercise 3 Operation Closing Time 252

Scenario 252

Task 253

Guidance 254

Chapter 15 Deception Detection Exercises 255

Exercise 1 The Valley of Doubt 255

Scenario 255

Situation 256

Task 257

Guidance 260

Exercise 2 The YUTA Ghost 261

Scenario 261

Situation 261

Task 261

Guidance 267

Bibliography 269

Index 273

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