Elicitation: The Science and Art of Structuring Judgement

Elicitation: The Science and Art of Structuring Judgement

Hardcover(1st ed. 2018)

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Product Details

ISBN-13: 9783319650517
Publisher: Springer International Publishing
Publication date: 11/18/2017
Series: International Series in Operations Research & Management Science , #261
Edition description: 1st ed. 2018
Pages: 542
Product dimensions: 6.10(w) x 9.25(h) x (d)

About the Author

Luis C. Dias obtained a degree in Informatics Engineering from the School of Science and Technology at the University of Coimbra in 1992, a Ph.D. in Management by the University of Coimbra in 2001, and Habilitation in Decision Aiding Science in 2013 in the same university. He is currently Associate Professor and Vice-Dean for Research the Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra (FEUC), where he has been teaching courses on decision analysis, operations research, informatics, and related areas. He held temporary invited positions at the University Paris-Dauphine and the University of Vienna. Luis is also a researcher at the CeBER and INESC Coimbra R&D centers, a member of the coordination board of U.Coimbra’s Energy for Sustainability Initiative, and currently a Vice-President of APDIO, the Portuguese Operational Research Society. He is on the Editorial Board of the EURO Journal on Decision Processes and Omega. His research interests include multicriteria decision analysis, performance assessment, group decision and negotiation support, decision support systems, and applications in the areas of energy and environment.

John Quigley has a Bachelor of Mathematics in Actuarial Science from the University of Waterloo, Canada and a PhD in Management Science from the University of Strathclyde, where he is currently Professor. He is an Industrial Statistician with extensive experience in elicitation of expert judgment to support model development and quantification through subjective probability distributions, having worked closely over the past 25 years with various engineering organizations on problems concerned with risk and reliability. John has been involved in consultancy and applied research projects with, for example, Aero-Engine Controls, Rolls Royce, Airborne Systems, BAE SYSTEMS and the Ministry of Defense (MOD). His collaborative work on Bayesian model development as part of the Reliability Enhancement Methods and Models (REMM) project is included in the industry standard for reliability growth analysis methods. John is a tutor for the European Food Safety Agency (EFSA) on Expert Knowledge Elicitation (EKE) as well as being an Associate of the Society of Actuaries, a Chartered Statistician, and a member of the Safety and Reliability Society.

Alec Morton has degrees from the University of Manchester and the University of Strathclyde. He has worked for Singapore Airlines, the National University of Singapore, and the London School of Economics, has held visiting positions at Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh, Aalto University in Helsinki, and the University of Science and Technology of China (USTC) in Hefei, and has been on secondment at the National Audit Office. His main interests are in decision analysis and health economics. Alec has been active in the INFORMS Decision Analysis Society and the OR Society. He is on the Editorial Board of Decision Analysis and is an Associate Editor for the EURO Journal on Decision Processes, the Transactions of the Institute of Industrial Engineers, and OR Spectrum. His research has won awards from the International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research and the Society for Risk Analysis and from the the INFORMS Decision Analysis Society publication award.

Table of Contents

Elicitation: State of the Art and Science.- Elicitation in the Classical Model.- Validation in the Classical Model.- SHELF: The Sheffield Elicitation Framework.- IDEA for Uncertainty Quantification.- Elicitation and Calibration: A Bayesian Perspective.- Constructing Subjective Probability Distributions with Data: An Empirical Bayes Approach.- Eliciting Multivariate Uncertainty from Experts: Considerations and Approaches Along the Expert Judgement Process.- Combining Judgments from Correlated Experts.- Utility Elicitation.- Elicitation in Target-Oriented Utility.- Multiattribute Value Elicitation.- Disaggregation Approach to Value Elicitation.- Eliciting Multi-Criteria Preferences: ELECTRE Models.- Individual and Group Biases in Value and Uncertainty Judgments.- The Selection of Experts for (Probabilistic) Expert Knowledge Elicitation.- Eliciting Probabilistic Judgments for Integrating Decision Support Systems.- Expert Elicitation to Inform Health Technology Assessment.- Expert Judgement Based Nuclear Threat Assessment for Vessels Arriving in the US.- Risk Assessment using Group Elicitation: Case Study on Start-up of a New Logistics System.- Group Decision Support for Ecology Economics: A Case Study to Guide the Process of Preferences' Elicitation.

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