Throughout the book, analytical methods for energy and economic analysis and design give users a quantitative appreciation for and understanding of energy systems. Randolph and Masters use case studies extensively to demonstrate current experience and illustrate possibilities.
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About the Author
Gilbert M. Masters is the MAP (Emeritus) Professor of Sustainable Energy in the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering at Stanford University. His focus is on energy efficiency and renewable energy systems as keys to slowing global warming, enhancing energy security, and increasing access to energy services in less developed parts of the world. He is author or co-author of a number of books, including Renewable and Efficient Electric Power Systems, now in its second edition (2013) and Introduction to Engineering and Science, now in its third edition (2008).
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The Energy Imperative and Patterns of Use
Energy is the keystone of nature and society. All life on Earth is made possible by incident solar energy captured and stored by plants and passed through ecosystems. Human civilization was spawned by innovation in acquiring and using diverse sources of energy, first by cultivating plants and domesticating animals and eventually by building machines that could use energy stored in fossil fuels. In fact, each phase of the advance of civilization was triggered by changes in energy use that provided opportunities for growth of human populations and economic systems.
Today, human society is in an unprecedented growth period. Since 1850 and the dawn of the Industrial Revolution, the population, the economy, and energy use have surged, fueled by oil, natural gas, and coal. This growth of fossil energy will be limited by diminishing availability of oil and gas and environmental constraints on fossil fuel use, probably sooner than most realize.
Some envision catastrophe ahead, characterized by abrupt climate change resulting from increasing carbon emissions from fossil fuel consumption, or constraints on oil and natural gas supplies, or political and military upheaval over access to energy resources, or economic depression triggered by increasingly volatile and rising energy prices, or all of the above.
Others see us beginning a period of transition to stabilized population and sustainable energy. Indeed, the 2005–2017 period has seen unprecedented development of more sustainable energy efficiency and renewable energy. Sustainability is defined as patterns of economic, environmental, social, and political progress that meet the needs of the present day without reducing the capacity to meet future needs. Sustainable energy refers to patterns of energy production and use that can support society's present and future needs with the least life-cycle economic, environmental, and social costs and consequences. By life cycle we mean the cost of a product from acquiring its original raw materials to manufacturing, transporting, and using it to its final demolition and disposal. Life-cycle analysis is fundamental to sustainability because it aims to capture full costs over an extended time period.
Global population in 2017 is 7.6 billion, and United Nations projections expect it to increase to about 9.6 billion by 2050 and stabilize at about 11 billion by 2100. Although there is a huge appetite for more energy, especially among developing countries where most population growth is occurring, ultimately the current growth in energy use may slow along with slower population growth. Population stabilization and slower energy growth do not mean that economic growth would also subside: As energy efficiency improves and structural changes in the economy continue to divorce it from growth of energy, labor, and materials, the economy may continue to expand while growth of population and energy slows.
The critical uncertainty is whether the transition in population and energy use will occur soon enough to avoid catastrophic consequences. Already we are witnessing the effects of climate change, access to resources, energy price volatility, and political turmoil.
In the years before his untimely death in 2005, Nobel laureate Richard Smalley (2005) characterized the world's quest for sustainability in the following 10 prioritized problems:
6. Terrorism and war
Why does energy top the list? Smalley argued that abundant, available, affordable, clean, efficient, and secure energy would enable the resolution of all the other problems. We need energy to reclaim and treat water, grow food, and manage the environment. If we can provide food, water, and a clean environment, we need energy to arrest poverty and disease and expand education and communication. By meeting these basic needs, we can control the root causes of terrorism and war, expand democracy, and stabilize the population. Energy is the key for achieving a sustainable world system. We need energy for sustainability.
Our need for energy to create order in the world stems from the second law of thermodynamics, which states that matter and energy tend to degrade into an increased state of disorder, chaos, or randomness. Only through a flow of high-quality energy through the system (and a corresponding flow of lower-quality energy out) can order and structure be created. A constant flow of energy is needed to maintain that order. Nature and human society on Earth are able to produce order and structure only through their ability to acquire energy. Chapter 4 will cover this fundamental principle in greater detail.
1.1 Our Energy Dilemma Today we have an energy dilemma. Simply put, our energy problem has three components:
Carbon: The global climate is already changing due to carbon emissions from fossil fuels, which still provide 84% of our energy in 2017.
Oil: One-third of world energy still comes from petroleum. Despite new production from unconventional deposits, exploiting them brings higher costs and impacts, conventional reserves are concentrated in the politically volatile Middle East, and the date when oil production will probably peak still looms closer.
Expanding global demand: The developing world needs more energy to achieve basic needs. China's energy use doubled from 2005 to 2015. Global energy usage grew by 2% per year from 1970 to 2002 and 2.3% per year from 2002 to 2012, but it slowed to less than 1% per year from 2012 to 2016.
And there are three complicating factors:
Progress is slow toward alternatives to oil, carbon, and growth in demand. We are nearly as dependent on fossil fuels now as we were in the 1970s. Although demand growth in developed countries has stabilized, it has been offset by the increasing demand in the developing world.
Change is hard because of uncertainty, social norms, and vested interests. Transition to sustainable energy faces barriers to change, including uncertainty about supply options and their impacts, economic and political interests that fight to protect their status quo, and people resistant to changing their behavior.
Time is short. The time to act was yesterday. Over the past three decades, the economy and environment have provided clear signals that our energy patterns are not sustainable. Despite these warnings, we have not done enough to alter our patterns of use.
Although we still have major challenges to sustainable energy, there are signs of change. In this chapter we provide background necessary to understanding the importance of energy in history and the current global and U.S. energy situations. After giving a historical view of changing energy patterns that parallels the development of human civilization, we describe recent patterns and trends of energy production and consumption. Then in Chapters 2 and 3 we discuss the environmental, geologic, and geopolitical implications of these energy trends and a number of future energy scenarios based on different assumptions of energy demand, economic factors, and policy directions, including scenarios that may accelerate the transition to a sustainable energy future.
1.2 Historical Perspective: Energy and Civilization
Energy is the most significant ingredient in the development of human civilization. Every major milestone in population growth, technology, living standards, and economy is linked to changes in our ability to acquire and convert energy for useful purposes. We have only recently begun to learn how to advance civilization without a significant increase in energy use. Our major sustainability challenge is to implement these lessons while we stabilize population growth.
The discovery of striking stones to ignite fires for thermal uses, perhaps 100,000 years ago, appears to be the first conscious human-engineered energy conversion. The invention of the wheel and stone tools and the domestication of work animals extended mechanical energy uses in the period from 8000 to 4000 B.C. From 4000 to 1000 B.C., thermal energy from wood fire, then coal, not only provided warmth and cooking but also was essential in developing ceramic and metal materials, such as pottery (4000 B.C.), bronze (2500 B.C.), and iron (1500 B.C.).
After the start of the first century A.D., devices to harness water and wind power extended human ability to use mechanical power for grist milling and water pumping. There were 10,000 windmills and 5600 water mills in England by 1400 A.D. Sail-driven boats date back to Egypt around 2000 B.C., but advanced sailing after 1250 A.D. ushered in the age of trade and exploration.
It was fossil fuels that changed the world. Coal and certain oils were used for heat and illumination as early as A.D. 100. But it was in the 1800s that coal and oil were put to use as fuel for the newly developed steam engine, and later other heat and mechanical engines, which revolutionized industry, transportation, and agriculture. The first commercial oil well (1859), invention of the internal combustion engine (1877), oil discoveries in Texas (1901) and Iran (1908), invention of the airplane (1903), and the Model T and assembly production (1908) ushered in the age of petroleum, the automobile, and air transport.
The electrical age had its founding in the invention of the generator and motor (1831) but waited for further inventions of the electric light (1879), refrigeration (1891), and air conditioning (1902), and development of electric companies and transmission (first in 1891), before taking off after 1920 and revolutionizing living standards.
After 1950, further growth of fossil fuels, electricity (including nuclear power), and related technologies for electronics and telecommunications, agriculture, manufacturing, and transportation set the stage for global expansion and unprecedented population and economic growth.
Until 1800, human population had been constrained to 1 billion people by limits on energy use and technology. Before 1850, society had to rely on human and animal labor to plow fields, harvest crops, chop firewood, mine and haul coal, and transport people and materials. This drove the market not only for draft animals but also for human African slaves in the United States and elsewhere. But after 1850, advances in industry, agriculture, transportation, and communication brought about by new fossil fuel energy technologies freed society from the constraints of slave and animal labor and expanded agricultural and industrial productivity. Fossil energy fueled the great expanse of human civilization. Population increased to 2 billion by 1927, 4 billion by 1974, 6 billion by 1999, 7 billion by 2011, and 7.6 billion in 2017.
The world economy grew (in constant 2010 dollars) from an estimated $150 billion in A.D. 1 to $1 trillion in 1820 and $1.7 trillion in 1870. The Industrial Revolution spawned a fivefold increase by 1950 to $8.1 trillion, tripling to $22.6 trillion by 1975 and more than tripling again to $71.5 trillion in 2014 (OECD, 2001; World Bank, 2014). Before 1980, most energy analysts believed growth of the economy and energy consumption were inextricably linked, but after 1980 economic production grew far faster than both energy consumption and population. Higher energy prices and new technologies led to greater energy efficiency, and the service and information sectors grew faster than the energy- and material-intensive manufacturing sectors of the economy.
Figure 1.1 and Table 1.1 show the huge growth in population, economy, and energy use since 1800. These exponential growth rates are impressive historically, because they have changed the nature of the world in which we live, but they are equally impressive as we look to the future and consider how we can sustain them, modify them, and live with the consequences.
1.3 Global Energy Supply and Consumption
From this long-term perspective, let's zero in on the past few decades so that we can understand the current energy situation. We will look separately at global energy and U.S. energy information. The data come from several sources and are presented with simple analysis to describe patterns and trends using proportional calculations, time series graphs, and rates of change. Data sources and some analytical methods are described in Sidebar 1.1. Chapters 2 and 3 explore the implications of these trends and what they bode for the future.
1.3.1 Explosive Growth of Energy as Developing World Begins to Catch Up
Energy demand has exploded in the last century, fueled primarily by fossil energy in developed economies. But the disparity of energy use between industrialized and developing countries is closing. Figure 1.2 shows the tremendous growth in commercial energy since 1900, especially since 1940. Consumption increased by 21/2 times from 1970 to 2015, growing at 2% per year until 2000 and 2.4% per year from 2000 to 2013, slowing to 0.9% per year growth 2014–2016, when consumption reached 556 quadrillion (101) British thermal units (Btu), or 556 quads. This is commercial marketed energy and does not include an estimated 40 quads of traditional biomass for heating and cooking or an increasing amount of distributed solar energy production. (SeeSidebar 1.2: A Btu is a traditional English unit of energy equal to 1054 joules, the standard metric unit, and 0.293 watt-hour, the standard unit of electrical energy. A quad is 1 quadrillion  Btu and is a standard unit for national and global energy production and consumption used by U.S. energy agencies. 1 quad equals about 25 million tonnes of oil equivalent [Mtoe] and 1.056 exajoules [EJ = 10 joules]. Chapter 4 discusses energy units and conversion.)
Most of this growth occurred up to 2000 in developed countries and after 2000 in developing countries, where it is likely to continue because of the expected demand. These developing nations have a big appetite for energy because of their growing populations, development needs, and the current economic and energy disparity between richer and poorer countries. Figure 1.3A gives energy consumption since 2000 for the world and for the U.S., selected developing countries (China, India, and Brazil), developed countries (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development [OECD]), and poorer countries (non-OECD). Non-OECD poorer countries eclipsed OECD countries in total energy after 2008, and China exceeded the U.S. to become the number one consumer after 2010. But you can see that energy demand growth has slowed since 2012. As mentioned, this 556 quads in 2016 does not include about 40 quads of traditional biomass energy used by about 2.7 billion of the world's poor.
Figure 1.3B plots energy use per capita (see Equation 1.1). Annual energy use worldwide averaged 75 million Btu (MBtu) per capita in 2016. Whereas OECD countries, with 18% of the world population, consume energy at an annual rate of more than 184 MBtu per capita, the non-OECD developing countries, with 82% of the population, consume energy at a rate of 52 MBtu per capita.
In 2016, the average U.S. citizen consumed 301 MBtu, the average Japanese 150 MBtu, the average Brit 125 MBtu, the average Chinese 91 MBtu (up from 33 MBtu in 2002), the average Indian 20 MBtu, the average Bengali 5 MBtu, and the average Ethiopian consumed about 2 MBtu per person.
This disparity in energy use is important. It is an indicator of the economic and social disparity in the world, and we will never achieve a sustainable world system until basic human and societal needs for food, education, employment, transportation, and other necessities are met. As developing countries advance, they will need a huge increase in their energy use to fuel the industry, transportation, electrification, telecommunications, and human services to provide these basic needs. And this is happening. From 2000 to 2016 energy per capita increased 58% in non-OECD countries, while it dropped 15% in the U.S. and 8% in all OECD countries.
Another hopeful sign is that the United States and other countries have reduced the energy intensity of their economies (see Equation 1.2). Energy intensity indicates how much a national economy depends on energy per unit of economic output, or gross domestic product (GDP). It is measured in energy per $GDP. Energy productivity is the inverse of intensity or $GDP per energy unit consumed. If energy intensity is low, then energy productivity and efficiency are high in that economy. Since 1990, global energy intensity, based on GDP calculated in purchasing power parity (GDP),1 has improved by 34%; in the U.S. it has improved by 38%. Although the U.S. economy is much more energy intensive than those of Japan, Germany, France, the United Kingdom, and Sweden, it is 10 times more energy efficient than Russia's economy based on energy/$GDP.(Continues…)
Excerpted from "Energy for Sustainability"
Copyright © 2018 John Randolph and Gilbert M. Masters.
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Table of Contents
Preface Acknowledgments Section I: Energy Patterns and Trends Chapter 1: The Energy Imperative and Patterns of Use 1.1 Our Energy Dilemma 1.2 Historical Perspective: Energy and Civilization 1.3 Global Energy Supply and Consumption 1.3.1 Explosive Growth of Energy as Developing World Begins to Catch Up 1.3.2 Continuing Dependency on Oil and Fossil Fuels 1.4 U.S. Energy Supply and Consumption 1.4.1 U.S. Energy Independence? Production Up, Consumption Flat, Imports Down 1.4.2 U.S. Energy Cleaner, More Efficient, More Independent Since 2007, but a Long Way to Go 1.5 Summary 1.5.1 Sustainable Energy: Improve Efficiency, Reduce Carbon, Replace Oil Chapter 2: Energy Sources and Sustainability 2.1 Criteria for Sustainable Energy 2.2 Resource Limits of Fossil Fuels 2.2.1 Peak Oil Debate Revisited: Will the Peak Be Driven by Production or Consumption? 2.2.2 Natural Gas: Shale Gas Technology Extends Future Supplies but for How Long? 2.2.3 Coal More Plentiful but Constrained by Environmental Impacts 2.3 Environmental Limits of Fossil Fuels 2.3.1 Climate Change and Energy 2.3.2 Local and Regional Air Pollution 2.3.3 Fuel Extraction, Transport, and Other Impacts 2.4 Nuclear Power: Once Great Hope, Now in Decline 2.5 The Transition to Clean Energy Is Happening: Efficiency and Renewables 2.5.1 Energy Efficiency Is Making a Difference with More on the Way 2.5.2 Renewable Energy Growing Fast but Still Small Contribution 2.6 Summary Chapter 3: Energy Futures 3.1 The Complexities of Our Changing Energy System 3.2 Planning and Visioning the Future 3.2.1 Projections and Forecasts 3.2.2 Technology Roadmaps 3.2.3 Needs Assessment and Solution Wedges 3.2.4 Developing Scenarios 3.3 Officialdom’s Vision of Our Energy Future: U.S. EIA and IEA Outlooks 3.3.1 U.S. EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2017: BAU 3.3.2 EIA International Energy Outlook 3.3.3 IEA World Energy Outlook 2016 Central Case 3.4 Future Energy Scenarios: Different Assumptions, Different Pathways, Different Futures 3.4.1 IEA’s WEO 2015: Visions of Desired Future Conditions 3.4.2 IPCC/UNFCCC Future Scenarios 3.5 Possible Energy Futures: Roadmaps to Sustainable Energy 3.5.1 Amory Lovins’s Reinventing Fire 3.5.2 NREL Renewables Futures Study: 80% Renewable U.S. Electricity by 2050 3.5.3 Pathways to Deep Decarbonization in the United States 3.5.4 The 100% Solution Project: Wind, Water, and Sun Can Do It All 3.6 Show Me the Money! Energy Market Forces and Investment Scenarios 3.6.1 Energy Investment and Divestment 3.6.2 Citigroup Forecast: Energy Darwinism II 3.6.3 BNEF Energy Outlook 3.7 Summary Section II: Energy Fundamentals Chapter 4: Energy Fundamentals 4.1 Introduction 4.2 Basics of Energy Science 4.2.1 Introduction to the First and Second Laws of Thermodynamics 4.2.2 A Word About Units 4.2.3 The Distinction Between Energy and Power 4.3 Mechanical Energy 4.3.1 Potential and Kinetic Energy 4.3.2 Pressure Energy 4.3.3 Rotational Energy 4.4 Thermal Energy 4.4.1 Temperature 4.4.2 Internal Energy, Thermal Capacitance 4.4.3 Solids, Liquids, and Gases 4.5 Electrical Energy 4.5.1 Electric Current 4.5.2 Voltage 4.5.3 The Concept of an Electrical Circuit 4.5.4 Electrical Power and Energy 4.5.5 RMS Values of Currents and Voltages 4.6 Chemical Energy 4.6.1 Atoms and Molecules 4.6.2 Stoichiometry: Mass Balance in Chemical Reactions 4.6.3 Enthalpy: The Energy Side of Chemical Reactions. 4.7 Solar Energy 4.7.1 Electromagnetic Radiation 4.7.2 The Solar Spectrum 4.7.3 The Greenhouse effect 4.7.4 Solar Energy for Living Things 4.7.5 Food Calories 4.8 Nuclear Energy 4.8.1 The Nature of Radioactivity 4.8.2 Nuclear Fission 4.8.3 Nuclear Fusion 4.9 Summary Chapter 5: Energy Analysis and Life-Cycle Assessment 5.1 Some Principles of Life-Cycle Thinking and Sustainability Analysis 5.2 Energy Analysis 5.2.1 Direct Conversion Efficiency (η) 5.2.2 Energy Return on Energy Investment (EROI) 5.2.3 Net Energy (NE) or Energy Balance 5.2.4 Energy Payback Time (EPBT) 5.3 Energy Audits, Energy Data Monitoring, and Energy Control and Management 5.3.1 Energy Audits 5.3.2 Monitoring with Energy Billing Information 5.3.3 Energy Data Logging 5.4 Economic Analysis of Energy Systems 5.4.1. Economic Value of Energy 5.4.2 Life-Cycle Costing and Time Value of Money 5.4.3 Economic Measures of Cost-Effectiveness 5.4.4 Performing Economic Analysis with Spreadsheets 5.4.5 Cost-Effectiveness and Market Penetration 5.5 Environmental Analysis of Energy and Material Systems 5.5.1 Air Pollutant and Carbon Emissions from Combustion of Fossil Fuels 5.5.2 Emission Rates for Electricity 5.5.3 Assessing Other Environmental Impacts of Energy Use 5.5.4 Calculating Your Carbon Footprint 5.6 Summary Section III: Buildings and Energy Chapter 6: Energy Efficiency for Buildings 6.1 Residential and Commercial Buildings 6.2 Site Energy versus Primary Energy 6.3 Introduction to Heat Loss Calculations 6.3.1 Basic Heat Transfer through the Building Envelope 6.3.2 Heat Transfer by Conduction 6.3.3 Heat Transfer by Convection 6.3.4 Radiation Heat Transfer 6.3.5 The Combined Convective-Radiative R-Value 6.4 Heat Loss through Windows 6.4.1 Single-Pane Window Analysis 6.4.2 Discomfort and Condensation Problems with Cold Windows 6.4.3 Improving the R-Value of Windows 6.4.4 Center-of-Glass R-Values and Edge Effects 6.5 Heat Loss through Walls, Ceilings, and Floors 6.5.1 Walls 6.5.2 Ceilings and Roofs 6.5.3 Floors 6.6 Heat Loss Due to Infiltration 6.6.1 Estimating Infiltration Rate (Blower-Door Approach) 6.6.2 How Tight Is "Too Tight" for Healthful Indoor Air Quality? 6.7 The Overall Heat Loss Factor 6.8 Let's Size a Furnace 6.9 Annual Cost of Heating 6.9.1 Internal Gains 6.9.2 Heating and Cooling Degree-Days 6.9.3 Annual Heating Load 6.10 Impacts of Improving Efficiency 6.11 Heating, Ventilating, and Air Conditioning (HVAC) Systems 6.11.1 Forced-Air Central Heating Systems 6.11.2 Hydronic Systems 6.11.3 Compressive Air Conditioners 6.12 Heat Pumps 6.12.1 Geothermal Heat Pumps 6.12.2 Ductless Mini-Split Heat Pumps 6.13 Summary Chapter 7: Solar Energy for Buildings: Approaching Zero Net Energy 7.1 The Solar Resource 7.1.1 Solar Angles to Help Us Design Overhangs 7.1.2 Sun Path Diagrams 7.1.3 Shadow Diagrams 7.1.4 Shadow Diagrams for Architectural Modeling 7.2 Energy-Efficient Building Design Strategies 7.2.1 The Importance of Building Orientation 7.2.2 South-Facing Windows for Solar Gains 7.3 Cooling Loads 7.3.1 Avoiding Cooling Loads 7.3.2 Better Windows to Reduce Cooling and Lighting Loads 7.3.3 Simple Cooling Calculations 7.3.4 Dehumidification 7.3.5 Human Comfort 7.4 Passive Solar Heating 7.4.1 A "Sun-Tempered" House 7.4.2 The Importance of Thermal Mass 7.4.3 Types of Passive Solar Heating Systems 7.4.4 Estimating Solar Performance 7.5 Domestic Water Heating 7.5.1 Heat Pump Water Heaters 7.5.2 Solar Thermal Hot Water Systems 7.6 Approaching Net Zero Solar Homes 7.7 Summary Chapter 8: Whole Building to Zero Net Energy 8.1 The Evolution toward Green Buildings and Communities 8.2 Whole Building Energy Technologies: Electrical Appliances and Lighting 8.2.1 Appliance and Equipment Efficiency: Standards Push the Market 8.2.2 ENERGY STAR Appliances and Labeling 8.2.3 Energy for Lighting: The LED Revolution 8.2.4 Smart Buildings, Smart Homes 8.2.5 Determining Building Electricity Needs 8.3 Building Energy Codes and Standards: Toward Whole Building Energy 8.3.1 Building Energy Code Development and Adoption 8.3.2 Typical Building Energy Code Requirements 8.3.3 Assessing Code Compliance and the Home Energy Rating System (HERS) 8.4 Whole Building Life Cycle: Embodied Energy in Buildings 8.4.1 Life-Cycle and Embodied Energy in Buildings and Materials 8.4.2 Green Roofs and Other Natural Building Materials 8.4.3 Tools for Embodied Energy and Life-Cycle Analysis of Buildings 8.5 Green Building Ratings: Helping the Market Advance Whole Building Life Cycle 8.5.1 EPA's ENERGY STAR Homes and DOE's Zero Energy Ready Homes 8.5.2 USGBC's LEED Certification Program 8.5.3 Passive House, PHIUS and, DOE ZERH Standards 8.5.4 EarthCraft Certification Program 8.6 Zero Net Energy Buildings 8.7 Toward Whole Community Energy 8.7 Summary Section IV: Sustainable Electricity Chapter 9: Centralized Electric Power Systems 9.1 Introduction 9.2 Electromagnetism: The Technology Behind Electric Power 9.3 Creating the Modern Electric Utility: Edison, Westinghouse, and Insull 9.3.1 The Important Role of Transformers 9.3.2 The Battle between Edison and Westinghouse 9.3.3 Insull Develops the Business Side of Utilities 9.4 Electric Power Infrastructure 9.4.1 The North American Power Grid 9.4.2 Balancing the Grid 9.4.3 Load Duration Curves 9.5 Electric Power Generation 9.5.1 Conventional Coal-Fired, Steam Power Plants 9.5.2 Flue Gas Emission Controls 9.5.3 Combustion Turbines 9.5.4 Combined-Cycle Power Plants 9.5.5 Clean Coal: Integrated Gasification Combined-Cycle (IGCC) Power Plants 9.5.6 Nuclear Power 9.5.7 Hydroelectric Power 9.6 Some Economics for Conventional Power Plants 9.6.1 Utilities and Nonutilities 9.6.2 Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) 9.6.3 Potential Impact of Carbon Costs and Other Externalities 9.7 Summary Chapter 10: Distributed Energy Resources 10.1 Balancing the Grid With DERs 10.2 Another Challenge: The "Duck Curve" 10.2.1 Challenges Raised by Duck Curves 10.2.2 Teaching the Duck to Fly 10.3 Demand Side Management (DSM) 10.3.1 Utility Decoupling 10.3.2 Conventional Utility Rate Structures (Before Smart Meters) 10.4 Demand Response (DR) Programs 10.4.1 Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI) 10.4.2 Time-of-Use (TOU) Rates 10.4.3 Critical Peak Pricing 10.5 Energy Storage: Thermal 10.5.1 Managing Electric Water Heaters 10.5.2 Stanford Energy System Innovations (SESI) 10.5.3 Thermal Energy Storage with Ice 10.6 Energy Storage: Electrical 10.6.1 Energy Storage Technologies 10.6.2 Battery Storage 10.6.3 Applications of Stationary Storage 10.7 Distributed Generation (DG) 10.7.1 Combined-Heat-and-Power (CHP) Systems 10.7.2 Fuel Cells 10.7.3 Renewable Energy Coupled With Storage: A Carbon-Free Future? 10.8 Summary Chapter 11: Photovoltaic Systems 11.1 Some Photovoltaic History 11.2 Crystalline Silicon (c-Si) Solar Cells 11.2.1 Photons to Create Hole-Electron Pairs 11.2.2 Band Gap Impact on Photovoltaic Efficiency 11.2.3 A Complete Silicon Solar Cell 11.3 Photovoltaic Fabrication 11.3.1 Crystalline Silicon Solar Cells (c-Si) 11.3.2 Multijunction (Tandem) Cells to Increase Efficiency 11.3.3 Thin-Film Photovoltaics 11.4 From Cells to Modules to Arrays to Systems 11.4.1 Photovoltaic Module Electrical Characteristics 11.4.2 Basic System Concepts for Residential and Commercial Buildings 11.4.3 Introducing Energy Storage for Buildings 11.5 Estimating Solar Performance 11.5.1 A Simple Peak-Watts Approach 11.5.2 PVWatts 11.5.3 Impacts of Dirt, Shading, and Aging 11.6 Economics of Photovoltaic Systems 11.6.1 Photovoltaic System Costs 11.6.2 Evaluating the Economics for Residential PV Systems 11.6.3 Amortizing Costs 11.6.4 Including Tax Credits and Tax-Deductible Interest 11.6.5 Economics of Nonresidential PV Systems 11.7 Off-Grid Photovoltaic Systems 11.7.1 Small Systems Paid for with Mobile Money 11.7.2 Solar Home Systems 11.8 Summary Chapter 12: Large-Scale Renewables 12.1 Distributed Solar Power 12.1.1 Community Solar 12.1.2 Community Choice Aggregation 12.1.3 Microgrids 12.1.4 Small Grids in Remote Regions of the World 12.2 Financing Utility-Scale Renewable Energy Systems 12.3 Wind Power 12.3.1 Historical Development of Wind Power 12.3.2 An Introduction to Wind Turbine Technology 12.3.3 Wind Turbine Power Curves 12.3.4 Power in the Wind 12.3.5 Combining Wind Statistics with Turbine Characteristics 12.3.6 Wind Turbine Capacity Factors 12.3.7 Offshore Wind Farms 12.3.8 Environmental Impacts of Wind 12.4 Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) Systems 12.4.1 Historical Development 12.4.2 The Importance of Thermal Energy Storage (TES) 12.5 Summary Section V: Sustainable Transportation and Land Use Chapter 13: Transportation Energy and Efficient Vehicles 13.1 Energy Use in Transportation 13.1.1 Transportation Energy Use in the U.S.: Uncertain Future? 184.108.40.206 U.S. Highway Transportation Energy Driven by Fuel Prices, Efficiency, Convenience 220.127.116.11 U.S. Freight Transportation 13.1.3 Overview of Transportation Energy Trends 13.2 Transportation Vehicle Energy Efficiency 13.2.1 Factors Affecting Vehicle Efficiency: Technology, Fuel Price, Policy, Consumer Choice 13.2.2 Vehicle Efficiency Regulations: Major Upgrade of U.S. CAFE Standards 2016-2025 13.2.3 Heavy Vehicle Efficiency: First-Time U.S. Efficiency Standards in Model Year 2016 13.2.4 Aircraft Energy Efficiency: International and U.S. Efforts to Reduce GHG Emissions 13.3 Vehicle Air Emissions and U.S. Standards: Major Tier 3 Reductions 2017-2025 13.4 Emerging Vehicle Technologies: Game Changers? 13.4.1 Conventional Internal Combustion Engine Vehicles 13.4.2 Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEVs) 13.4.3 Plug-In Electric Drive Vehicles (PEVs) 13.4.4 Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles (FCEVs) 13.5 Vehicle Technologies, Future Fuel Consumption Reduction, and Manufacturing Cost 13.5.1 Well-to-Wheels Analysis 13.5.2 Argonne National Laboratory Vehicle Assessment Project 13.5.3 Simple Well-to-Wheels Assessment: Gas, E85, HEV, PHEV, BEV, and FCEV Cars 13.6 Summary Chapter 14: Alternative Fuels, Biofuels, and Biomass 14.1 Alternative Transportation Fuels 14.1.1 Life-Cycle Analysis of Alternative Fuels 14.1.2 Alternative-Fueling Infrastructure 14.1.3 Alternative Fuel Prices 14.1.4 Alternative Fuel Vehicle Markets 14.2 Prospects and Potential for Biomass Fuels 14.2.1 Current Use of Biomass Energy in the U.S. 14.2.2 U.S. Biomass Energy Potential: The Billion-Ton Study 14.3 Bioethanol Fuel 14.3.1 U.S. Renewable Fuels Standard Aims to Push Cellulosic Bioethanol 14.3.2 Bioethanol Production Processes 14.3.3 Net Energy and GHG Analysis of Bioethanol 14.4 Biodiesel and Renewable Diesel 14.4.1 Biodiesel Production 14.4.2 Biodiesel Feedstocks and Production Technologies 14.4.3 Biodiesel from Microalgae 14.5 Other Biomass Energy and Emerging Biotechnologies 14.5.1 Other Biomass Energy 14.5.2 Emerging Biotechnologies for Energy 14.6 Natural Gas and Hydrogen as Transportation Fuels 14.6.1 Natural Gas as a Transportation Fuel 14.6.2 Hydrogen as a Transportation Fuel 14.7 Summary Chapter 15: Whole Community Energy, Mobility, and Land Use 15.1 Community Transportation 15.1.1 Global Patterns of Community Transportation 15.1.2 U.S. Vehicle Miles Traveled and VMT per Capita 15.1.3 Public Transit Systems and Energy 15.2 Shared, Electric, Autonomous Mobility: The New Age of Urban Passenger Transport 15.2.1 The Changing World of Mobility 15.2.2 Future Outlook for Shared, Electric, Autonomous Mobility 15.2.3 Implications of Shared, Electric, Autonomous Mobility 15.3 Sustainable Mobility, Livable Communities, and Land Use 15.3.1 The Five Ds of Transport-Efficient Land Use 15.3.2 Urban Density and Transportation Energy Use 15.3.3 Mixed-Use, Pedestrian- and Transit-Oriented Development 15.3.4 Compact Development, Housing Size, Location, Transport, and Energy Use 15.3.5 Whole Community Energy in Green Development: LEED-ND Guidelines 15.3.6 Metropolitan Land Use and Transportation 15.3.7 Consumer Preferences Moving toward Urban Livable Communities 15.4 Beyond Mobility: Land Use, Urban Heat Island, and Solar Access 15.4.1 Land Use and the Urban Heat Island 15.4.2 Land Use and Solar Access 15.5 Community Energy and Climate Action Planning 15.5.1 NREL City-Level Energy Decision Making 15.5.2 ICLEI ClearPath Climate Action Process 15.5.3 ACEEE Local Energy Calculators 15.6 Summary Section VI: Energy Policy and Planning Chapter 16: Market Transformation to Sustainable Energy 16.1 Some Fundamentals of Market Transformation 16.1.1 Distinguishing Technical, Sociocultural, Economic, and Market Potential 16.1.2 Market Failure: Transaction Costs and Externalities 16.1.3 Noneconomic Factors and Market Transformation 16.2 The Techno-Economic Solutions 16.2.1 Technological Change and Diffusion of Innovation 16.2.2 The Price of Technology, the Experience Curve, and Learning Investments 16.3 The Policy Solutions 16.3.1 The Case for Market Intervention 16.3.2 The Range of Market Transformation Policies and Programs 16.3.3 Pitfalls of Market Transformation Programs 16.4 The Social Solutions 16.4.1 Energy Politics: Achieving Necessary Market Transformation Policies 16.4.2 Consumer Values and Choice 16.5 Summary Chapter 17: Energy Policy 17.1 International Perspectives on Energy Policy 17.1.1 International Agreements: IPCC, UNFCCC, Kyoto, and Paris 17.1.2 Carbon Pricing May Be the Key to Success of the Paris Agreement 17.1.3 Innovations in Developed Countries 17.1.4 Progress Among Developing Countries 17.2 U.S. Federal Energy Policy 17.2.1 Overview and a Brief History 17.2.2 Federal Regulations Affecting Energy Production and Consumption 17.2.3 Federal Economic and Financial Energy Policies 17.2.4 Federal Energy Information and Education 17.3 Summary and Prospects for U.S. Federal Energy Policy Chapter 18: U.S. State and Community Energy Policy and Planning 18.1 State Energy Policy 18.1.1 Which States Are Clean Energy Policy Leaders? ACEEE and Solar Rankings 18.1.2 State Energy Policies: Description and Distribution 18.1.3 State Utility Regulation 18.1.4 State Energy Policy Case Examples: Massachusetts, New York, California 18.2 Community Energy Planning and Policy 18.2.1 International Perspectives on Community Energy Plans and Policies 18.2.2 North American Cities Demonstrate the Possibilities of Local Energy Planning 18.2.3 Which U.S. Cities Lead the Way? ACEEE City Energy Efficiency Scorecard 18.2.4 Community Clean Energy Initiatives 18.3 Summary References and Further Reading Index