Evaluating Methods to Estimate the Effect of State Laws on Firearm Deaths: A Simulation Study

by Terry L. Schell, Beth Ann Griffin, Andrew R. Morral

Overview

The authors use simulations to assess the performance of a wide range of statistical models commonly used in the gun policy literature to estimate the effects of state-level gun policies on firearm deaths and to identify the most-appropriate statistical methods for producing estimates. The results suggest substantial statistical problems with many of the methods used in this field. The authors identify the best method among those assessed.

Product Details

ISBN-13:	9781977401557
Publisher:	RAND Corporation
Publication date:	01/25/2019
Pages:	112
Product dimensions:	6.09(w) x 8.66(h) x 0.29(d)

Table of Contents

Preface iii

Figure and Tables vii

Summary ix

Acknowledgments xiii

Abbreviations xv

Chapter 1 Introduction 1

Chapter 2 Methods 5

Criteria for Assessing Performance of Statistical Models 6

Design of the Simulation 7

Statistical Models Investigated 16

Simulation Implementation 27

Chapter 3 Results 29

Type 1 Error Rates 29

Correct Rejection Rates 38

Directional Bias 43

Magnitude Bias 46

Other Considerations in Model Selection 50

Chapter 4 Discussion 61

Concerns About Low Power 63

Common Adjustments to Standard Errors Often Were Insufficient 68

Log Transformation of Rate Outcomes Resulted in Inference Errors 69

Limitations 70

Conclusion 73

Appendixes

A Technical Description of Evaluated Models 75

B Standard Error Correction Factors 79

References 87

About the Authors 95