Forewarned: A Sceptic's Guide to Prediction

by Paul Goodwin

Overview

Whether it’s an unforeseen financial crash, a shock election result, or an expected barbecue season that sees record rainfall, forecasts have impacts on us all. Forewarned is a consumer’s guide to prediction, based on the very latest scientific research. By the end of the book you’ll be better placed to make informed decisions in a volatile world. You’ll know when forecasts can be a reliable guide to the vicissitudes and uncertainties of the future - and when they are best ignored.

Product Details

ISBN-13:	9781785902222
Publisher:	Biteback Publishing, Ltd.
Publication date:	06/12/2018
Pages:	304
Product dimensions:	5.30(w) x 8.40(h) x 1.00(d)

About the Author

Paul Goodwin is an Emeritus Professor at the University of Bath, where he taught and researched forecasting and decision making. He has a PhD from Lancaster Universityand an MSc from Warwick Universityand he has acted as a consultant to both leading companies and government departments. In 2013 he was elected as an Honorary Fellow of the International Institute of Forecasters in recognition of his contribution to forecasting.

Table of Contents

Introduction 1

Chapter 1 Neurons galore 15

Chapter 2 A judgement on judgement 33

Chapter 3 More bytes than we can chew 51

Chapter 4 Spot the expert 71

Chapter 5 Group power 93

Chapter 6 Forecasting ourselves 123

Chapter 7 I spy impostors! 145

Chapter 8 The lure of one number 163

Chapter 9 Those who neglect history 183

Chapter 10 You can't tell me my forecast was wrong 205

Chapter 11 Knowing we don't know and the danger of knowing 219

Chapter 12 Conclusions 245

Notes 267

Acknowledgements 283

Index 287