The highly acclaimed The Future Population of the World contains the most authoritative assessment available of the extent to which population is likely to grow over the next 50 to 100 years. The book provides a thorough analysis of all the components of population change and translates these factors into a series of projections for the population of the world's regions.
This revised and updated version incorporates completely new scenario projections based on updating starting values and revised assumptions, plus several methodological improvements. It also contains the best currently available information on global trends in AIDS mortality and the first ever fully probabilistic world population projections.
The projections, given up to 2100, add important additional features to those of the UN and the World Bank: they show the impacts of alternative assumptions for all three components (mortality and migration, as well as fertility); they explicitly take into account possible environmental limits to growth; and, for the first time, they define confidence levels for global populations.
Combining methodological innovation with overviews of the most recent data and literature, this updated edition of The Future Population of the World is sure to conform its reputation as the most comprehensive and essential publication in the field.
|Publisher:||Earthscan/James & James|
About the Author
Wolfgang Lutz is leader of the World Population Project of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA). He has published widely in the fields of population forecasting and populationenvironment analysis and is editor of The Future Population of the World (1996) and co-author of Population and Climate Change (2001).
Table of Contents
List of Illustrations Foreword Preface Introduction Contributors Part I: Why Another Set of Global Population Projections?
1. Long-range Global Population Projections:
Lessons Learned Tomas Frejka
2. Alternative Approaches to Population Projection Wolfgang Lutz, Joshua R Goldstein, Christopher Prinz Part II: Future Fertility in Developing Countries
3. A Regional Review of Fertility Trends in Developing Countries: 1960 to 1995
4. Reproductive Preferences and Future Fertility in Developing Countries Charles F West08
5. Population Policies and Family-Planning in Southeast Asia Mercedes B Conception
6. Fertility in China: Past, Present, Prospects Grifith Feeney Part III: Future Mortality in Developing Countries
7. Mortality Trends in Developing Countries: A Survey Birgitta Bucht
8. Mortality in Sub-Saharan Africa: Trends and Prospects Michel Garenne
9. Global Trends in AIDS Mortality John Bongaarts
10. How Many People Can Be Fed on Earth?
Gerhard h' Heilig Part IV: Future Fertility and Mortality in Industrialized Countries 251
11. Future Reproductive Behavior in Industrialized Countries Wolfgang Lutz
12. The Future of Mortality at Older Ages in Developed Countries James W Vaupel and Hans Lundstrom Part V: The Future of Intercontinental Migration
13. Migration to and from Developing Regions: A Review of Past Trends Hania Zlotnik
14. Spatial and Economic Factors in Future South-North Migration Sture 0berg Part VI: Projections
15. World Population Scenarios for the 21st Century Wolfgang Lutz, Warren Sanderson, Sergei Scherbov, Anne Goujon
16. Probabilistic Population Projections Based on Expert Opinion Wolfgang Lutz, Warren Sanderson, Sergei Scherbov
17. Epilogue: Dilemmas in Population Stabilization Wolfgang Lutz Appendix Tables References Index