Future Trends from Past Cyles

Future Trends from Past Cyles

by Brian Millard


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Product Details

ISBN-13: 9781871857047
Publisher: Harriman House Publishing
Publication date: 10/20/2010
Pages: 250
Product dimensions: 6.90(w) x 9.60(h) x 0.80(d)

About the Author

Brian J. Millard's background was as a scientist, and until 1980 he was a senior lecturer at the University of London, publishing over seventy scientific papers.
He later became interested in the work of J.M. Hurst on cycles and channels in the stock market and as this interest grew, spent time carrying out research in this field. Following his landmark book 'Stocks and Shares Simplified', published in 1980, Brian wrote a further five books on the application of scientific methods to the stock market.
His books on channel analysis are now universally recognised as taking forward the work of J.M. Hurst to a higher level by analysing price movement and especially the occurrence of predictable cycles in market data. Brian also published software to enable traders to apply his methods.

Table of Contents

List of Figures xi

List of Tables xxix

1 Introduction 1

Definition of a Trend 3

Definition of a Cycle 3

Determining Trends 3

2 Risk and the Markets 9

Sources of Risk 9

3 How Prices Move (I) 19

Coin Tossing 20

Rising and Falling Trends 22

4 How Prices Move (II) 29

The Normal Distribution 29

5 Simulating Future Movement 45

Monte Carlo Simulation 47

6 Cycles and the Market 59

Properties of Sine Waves 61

Cycles in the Stock Market 66

Research on Market Cycles 71

7 Trends and the Market 75

Mathematical Trends 76

Extrapolating a trend line 87

8 Properties of Moving Averages 91

Calculation of Moving Averages 91

9 Averages as Proxies for Trends 111

Probabilities From Centred Averages 114

Boundaries and Channels 119

10 Trend Turning Points (I) 125

Short-term Trends 127

11 Trend Turning Points (II) 145

Estimation of Channel Direction 145

12 Trend Turning Points (III) 175

Why Does Channel Analysis Work" 202

13 Cycles and Sums of Cycles 207

Extrapolation of Cycles 210

The Comparator 213

Failure of Extrapolations 234

14 Bringing it All Together 237

Four Key Steps 237

Conclusion 265

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