In this tour de force the internationally renowned economist Charles Dumas outlines the thirty-year path that has brought this era of globalisation to crisis point, and identifies the factors that are now undermining the prospect of recovery from the Great Recession.
Politicians, central bankers and regulators are all too focused on deciding who to blame, and therefore on financial reform. But the underlying cause of the crisis was global financial imbalances, which were enlarged and prolonged by the mobility of capital under globalisation. Official ignorance or denial of this problem inevitably ensured a debt crisis in deficit countries.
Globalisation Fractures exposes the contradiction between badly needed deficit-country debt reduction and continued export-led growth policies in Germany, Japan and China. Only if these latter countries reverse into consumption-led growth can the world have a sound recovery. This book explains why the issue needs to be urgently addressed, rather than avoided.
|Publisher:||Profile Books Limited|
|Product dimensions:||5.50(w) x 8.40(h) x 0.90(d)|
About the Author
Charles Dumas has been Head of the World Service at Lombard Street Research since 1998 and is one of the world’s leading macroeconomic forecasters. He was previously a journalist at The Economist, an economist at General Motors and J. P. Morgan, and then managing director in JPM’s M&A department in New York.
Table of Contents
Figures and tables vi
1 The fundamental 'shock': globalisation 14
2 The roots of the crisis 20
3 The crisis: policy blunders, crash and recovery 65
4 The fiscal crisis 87
5 China's surge and relapse 101
6 US growth held back, heading into deflation 122
7 The euro-catastrophe 139
8 Japan: sliding downhill too fast to catch? 176
9 Government debt spirals up 193
10 What should be done and probably won't be 206
1 Mortgage-backed securities: the alphabet soup 232
2 Causes and effects of the Eurasian savings glut 242
3 How financial regulation might be changed 255