In 1980 my parents took me to St Lucia for the spring holidays. These vaca tions had - in the sense of the butterfly effect - considerable influence on my further curriculum. In the course of time I carried out many other journeys to the Caribbean. My colleagues even speak of an advancing "Caribbeanisation". This publication is the product of a lot of people who have supported and accompanied me during all this time. Most of my visits in the Caribbean were made possible by the DFG (Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft). It was of great advantage to my insight into Carib bean matters that I was able to participate in the DFG-financed research pro ject "Complex resource mangement on small Caribbean islands" for five years. The final phase of my dissertation about Montserrat was also financially supported, this time by the local funds of the University of Hamburg. Within the scope of the DFG project, I stayed on Montserrat for some The island fascinated me from my first encounter. This is especially months.
|Publisher:||Springer Berlin Heidelberg|
|Product dimensions:||6.10(w) x 9.25(h) x (d)|
Table of Contents1 Introduction.- 2 Theoretical Reflections.- 2.1 Complexity and Uncertainty.- 2.1.1 What Exactly is Complexity?.- 2.1.2 What is Uncertainty?.- 2.2 Resources and Uncertainty.- 2.3 Hazard Research and Complexity.- 2.4 Challenges to Geography.- 3 Strategic Planning as Methodical Consequence.- 3.1 What is Strategic Planning?.- 3.2 What are Scenarios?.- 3.3 Procedures of Scenario Planning.- 3.4 Potentials and Problems of Scenario Planning.- 3.5 Methodical Consequences for this Paper.- 4 Montserrat - A Complex System.- 4.1 Montserrat Before the Volcanic Crisis - Dealing with Uncertainty?.- 4.1.1 The Macro Level - Basic Structures.- 4.1.2 The Meso Level - Perceptions of the Gatekeepers, Plans and Strategies.- 4.1.3 The Micro Level - Perceptions of the Montserratians.- 4.1.4 Interactions Between the Levels.- 4.2 Montserrat During the Volcanic Crisis - Coping with Uncertainty.- 4.2.1 Chronology of the Volcanic Crisis.- 4.2.2 The Meso Level - Perceptions of Gatekeepers, Plans and Strategies.- 4.2.3 The Micro Level - Perceptions of the Montserratians.- 4.2.4 Interactions Between the Levels.- 5 Structuring the Future and Hazard Management - Scenarios as a Participative Planning Method for Reconstruction.- 5.1 Reconstruction Determined by Long-term Objectives.- 5.2 The Relevance of Participation.- 5.3 Scenarios in Hazard Management.- 6 Living on the Edge of a Volcano - Scenarios for Montserrat.- 6.1 A First Approach - Pre-Testing the Scenario Method.- 6.1.1 Phase I - Tasks and Influences.- 6.1.2 Phase II - Trend Projections and Clustering Alternatives.- 6.1.3 Phase III - Scenario Interpretation.- 6.1.4 Concluding Evaluation.- 6.2 Second Approximation - The Scenario Method in a Hazard Situation.- 6.2.1 Phase I - Utopias and Visions.- 6.2.2 Phase II - Draft Scenarios.- 6.2.3 Phase III - Options and Strategies.- 6.2.4 Final Evaluation.- 7 Living with the Unexpected - Perspectives for a Constructive Dealing with Complexity and Uncertainty.- References.