Table of Contents
Preface ix
Acknowledgments xvii
Chapter 1 The Plain-Old Normal 1
Yes Sir, Sir John 1
The Normal Normal 5
The Jobless Recovery 14
The Always Feared, Rarely Seen Double Dip 23
Chapter 2 Fooled by Averages 31
Bull Markets Are Inherently Above Average 32
Viva the V 36
Normal Returns Are Extreme, Not Average 47
The Pause That Refreshes (and Confuses) 49
Getting Average Returns Is Hard—Really Hard 53
Chapter 3 Volatility Is Normal—and Volatile 57
What the Heck Is Volatility? 58
Volatility Is Volatile 61
The Daily Grind 65
Stocks Are Less Volatile Than Bonds? 67
Economic Volatility—Also Normal 69
Volatility Isn’t Inherently Bad 71
Never a Dull Moment 74
Chapter 4 Secular Bear? (Secular) Bull! 81
Seeing the World Through Bear- Colored Glasses 82
Two Secular Bear Markets? 84
Stocks—Up Vastly More Than Down 90
Chapter 5 Debt and Deficient Thinking 101
Deficits Aren’t Bad, but Surpluses Will Kill You 105
The History of Big Government Debt 110
Just Who Is at Default Here? 116
Chapter 6 Long- Term Love and Other Investing Errors 123
No One Category Is Best for All Time 124
Long- Term Love Is Like Long- Term Forecasting— Both Wrong 129
It’s Still Heat Chasing Even When It Seems Safe 134
Use History to Your Advantage 146
Chapter 7 Poli-Ticking 151
Enter the Ideology- Free Zone 152
Your Party Isn’t Better 153
Presidents and Risk Aversion 155
Perverse Inverse—It’s Four and One 160
Poli- Tics Go Global 170
Poli- Tics Versus Entrepreneurs 172
Chapter 8 It’s (Always Been) a Global World, After All 177
It’s Always Been a Small World 179
Seeing the World Right 186
Conclusion 194
Appendix 197
Notes 201
Index 211
