Navigating Strategic Decisions: The Power of Sound Analysis and Forecasting

Navigating Strategic Decisions: The Power of Sound Analysis and Forecasting

by John E. Triantis

Hardcover

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Overview

Navigating Strategic Decisions: The Power of Sound Analysis and Forecasting by John E. Triantis

Based on four decades of experience and research, Navigating Strategic Decisions: The Power of Sound Analysis and Forecasting explains how to improve the decision-making process in your organization through the use of better long-term forecasts and decision support. Filled with time-tested methodologies and models, it provides you with the tools to establish the organization, processes, methods, and techniques required for analyzing and forecasting strategic decisions.

Describing how to foster the conditions required for forecasts to materialize, this book will help you rank project valuations and select higher value creation projects. It also teaches you how to:


  • Assess the commercial feasibility of large projects
  • Apply sanity checks to forecasts and assess their resource implications
  • Benchmark best-in-class strategic forecasting organizations, processes, and practices
  • Identify project risks and manage project uncertainty
  • Analyze forecasting models and scenarios to determine controllable levers
  • Pinpoint factors needed to ensure that forecasted future states materialize as expected

This book provides you with the benefit of the author’s decades of hands-on experience. In this book, John Triantis shares valuable insights on strategic planning, new product development, portfolio management, and business development groups. Describing how to provide world-class support to your corporate, market, and other planning functions, the book provides you with the tools to consistently make improved decisions that are based on hard data, balanced evaluations, well considered scenarios, and sound forecasts.

Product Details

ISBN-13: 9781466585980
Publisher: Taylor & Francis
Publication date: 06/19/2013
Pages: 435
Product dimensions: 7.20(w) x 10.10(h) x 1.00(d)

Table of Contents

Introduction
Forecast Types and Their Evolution
Why Are Good Forecasts and SDF Teams Needed?
The Role of SDF Teams and Misconceptions
Uniqueness of the Book and Benefits to the Reader
Structure of the Book and Discussion Topics

Strategic Decision Forecasting
Forecaster Relationships
Focus, Approach, and Methodology
Processes and Practices
Forecast Ownership and Accountability
Organizational Factors
Forecast Performance Measures
Expectations, Analyses, and Functions
Communications
Skills and Qualifications
Knowledge and Project Management

The Promise of Strategic Decision Forecasting
Definition of SDF
What SDF Solutions Are Not Intended for
Purpose and Objectives of SDF
The Need for a New SDF Paradigm
The Focus of SDF
Universal SDF Process Components
Common Uses of SDF Solutions
SDF Team Charter and Structure
The Role of Strategic Decision Forecasters
The Uniqueness of SDF
Benefits and Limitations of SDF

A NEW PARADIGM FOR STRATEGIC DECISION FORECASTING

SDF Organization Business Definition
The Mission of the SDF Team
The Vision of the SDF Team
SDF Team Principles and Values
Project Stakeholders and Functional Links
SDF Goals, Objectives, and Strategies Revisited
Scope of SDF Team Activities and Support Provided
SDF Team Governance
Internal and External SDF Networks
SDF Project and Knowledge Management
SDF Performance Measures

Culture, Mindset, Processes, and Principles
SDF Team Culture
SDF Mindset
SDF Approach
SDF Processes
SDF Principles and Guidelines

SDF Analytical Techniques and Tools
SDF Analytical Concepts and Aids
Anchoring of SDF Analyses and Evaluations
SDF Forecasting Due Diligence
Forecasting Due Diligence Techniques and Tools
SDF Plan and Processes
SDF Methods, Systems, and Implements

SDF Assessment and Implementation Techniques
Forecasting Function Project Management
SDF Solutions, Options, and Recommendations
SDF Performance Measures
SDF Forecast Realization Plan
Institutionalizing Learning and Knowledge

STRATEGIC DECISION FORECASTING APPLICATIONS

Corporate Policy and Strategy Evaluation
The Current State and Causes of Failures
Particular Needs and Challenges
The Role of the SDF Team
SDF Processes and Techniques
Corporate Strategy Evaluation
Corporate Policy Evaluation
SDF Techniques and Tools
Beneficial Practices and SDF Team Contributions
Examples of Useful Practices and Factors
SDF Team Contributions

New Product Development
Current State and Causes of Failures
SDF Approach, Processes, and Techniques
Forecasting for New Product and Service Development
New Technology Development Forecasting
SDF Team Analyses and Evaluations
Idea, Discovery, and Scoping Stage and Idea and Feasibility Screen
Business Case Stage and Go to Development and Testing Gate
Develop, Test, and Validate Stage and Go to Launch and Implement Gate
Post New Product Launch Review
Sound Practices and SDF Team Contributions
Sound Practices and Success Factors
SDF Team Contributions

New Market or Business Entry
The Current State
Special Needs, Issues, and Challenges
SDF Approach and Processes
SDF Analyses, Evaluations, and Techniques
SDF Analyses and Evaluations
SDF Techniques and Tools
Sound Practices and SDF Team Contributions

M&A and Joint Venture Projects
The Current State
M&A and JV Challenges and Issues
SDF Approach and Processes
SDF Tools and Techniques
SDF Analyses and Evaluations
Sound Practices and SDF Team Contributions
Sound Practices and Success Factors
SDF Team Contributions

Product and Technology Licensing
The Current State and Causes of Failures
SDF Approach, Processes, and Evaluations
SDF Approach and Processes
SDF Analyses and Evaluations
SDF Techniques and Tools
Quantitative Technological Forecasting Techniques
Judgmental Technological Forecasting Techniques
Integrative Technological Forecasting Techniques
Success Factors and Beneficial Practices
Project Success Factors
Beneficial Practices

Corporate Reorganizations and Turnarounds
Current State and Causes of Failures
SDF Approach and Techniques
SDF Analyses and Evaluations
Sound Practices and SDF Team Contributions
Sound Practices
SDF Team Contributions

Uncertainty and Risk Management
The Current State
Unique Issues and Challenges
SDF Approach and Techniques
SDF Analyses and Evaluations
Success Factors and SDF Team Contributions
Sound Practices
SDF Team Contributions

Major Capex and Project Financing
Current State
Particular Challenges and Issues
SDF Approach and Participation
SDF Analyses and Evaluations
Success Factors and SDF Team Contributions
Sound Practices and Success Factors
SDF Team Contributions

Product Portfolio Management
The Current State
Particular Issues and Challenges
SDF Approach and Processes
SDF Analyses and Evaluations
SDF Tools and Techniques
Sound Practices and SDF Team Contributions
Sound Practices and Success Factors
SDF Team Contributions

Negotiations and Investor Relations Support
Independent Validation and Verification
Negotiations Support
Investor Relations Support
Sound Practices and SDF Team Contributions
Sound Practices and Success Factors
SDF Team Contributions

Future-State Realization Planning
Current State, Issues, and Challenges
SDF Approach, Processes, and Tools
SDF Analyses and Evaluations
Sound Practices and SDF Team Contributions
Sound Practices and Success Factors
SDF Team Contributions

Business Cases, Plans, and Operational Targets
Current State, Issues, and Challenges
SDF Approach and Processes
Business Case Support
Business Plan Support
Target Development Support
Sound Practices and SDF Team Contributions
Sound Practices and Success Factors
SDF Team Contributions

IMPLEMENTING STRATEGIC DECISION FORECASTING

Best-in-Class Strategic Forecasting Teams
Governance of SDF Teams
Forecaster Responsibilities and Qualifications
Best-in-Class Attributes and Practices
SDF Process and Principles
SDF Performance Factors and Measures
Success Factors and SDF Team Contributions

SDF Organization Implementation Challenges
Attitudes and Organizational Mindset
Organizational Politics
Broad Scope and Responsibilities
Forecast Quality and Ownership of Forecast
Organization Knowledge Gaps
Availability of Qualified SDF Team Members
Outsourcing of Strategic Decision Forecasts
Management and Client Reassignments
Resource Constraints and Cost–Benefit Considerations
Implementing Processes and Performance Measures

Summary and Conclusions
Conditions for Successful SDF Applications
Recurring Themes in Successful Strategic Projects
Conclusions

Bibliography
Index

What People are Saying About This

From the Publisher

Managers too often predict demand emotionally despite the importance of the decisions being made as a result of good fact-based analysis. Subsequently, forecasts are often extrapolations of historical volume trends, rather than well-thought-out projections. This has been the accepted process for strategic forecasting and planning for the past 30 years. This is the first book that provides a proven framework for business executives to translate fact-based decisions into viable strategic forecasts.
—Charles Chase, Principal Industry Consultant, Supply Chain Global Practice, SAS Institute Inc.

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