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No Immediate Danger: Volume One of Carbon Ideologies

No Immediate Danger: Volume One of Carbon Ideologies

by William T. Vollmann

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Overview

“The most honest book about climate change yet.” —The Atlantic

The Infinite Jest of climate books.” —The Baffler

A timely, eye-opening book about climate change and energy generation that focuses on the consequences of nuclear power production, from award-winning author William T. Vollmann


In his nonfiction, William T. Vollmann has won acclaim as a singular voice tackling some of the most important issues of our age, from poverty to violence to the dark soul of American imperialism as it has played out on the U.S./Mexico border. Now, Vollmann turns to a topic that will define the generations to come—the factors and human actions that have led to global warming. Vollmann begins No Immediate Danger, the first volume of Carbon Ideologies, by examining and quantifying the many causes of climate change, from industrial manufacturing and agricultural practices to fossil fuel extraction, economic demand for electric power, and the justifiable yearning of people all over the world to live in comfort. Turning to nuclear power first, Vollmann then recounts multiple visits that he made at significant personal risk over the course of seven years to the contaminated no-go zones and sad ghost towns of Fukushima, Japan, beginning shortly after the tsunami and reactor meltdowns of 2011. Equipped first only with a dosimeter and then with a scintillation counter, he measured radiation and interviewed tsunami victims, nuclear evacuees, anti-nuclear organizers and pro-nuclear utility workers.

Featuring Vollmann's signature wide learning, sardonic wit, and encyclopedic research, No Immediate Danger, whose title co-opts the reassuring mantra of official Japanese energy experts, builds up a powerful, sobering picture of the ongoing nightmare of Fukushima.


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Product Details

ISBN-13: 9780399563492
Publisher: Penguin Publishing Group
Publication date: 04/10/2018
Pages: 624
Product dimensions: 6.30(w) x 9.40(h) x 2.20(d)

About the Author

William T. Vollmann is the author of ten novels, including Europe Central, which won the National Book Award. He has also written four collections of stories, including The Atlas, which won the PEN Center USA West Award for Fiction, a memoir, and six works of nonfiction, including Rising Up and Rising Down and Imperial, both of which were finalists for the National Book Critics Circle Award. He is the recipient of a Whiting Writers Award and the Strauss Living Award from the American Academy of Arts and Letters. His journalism and fiction have been published in The New Yorker, Harpers, Esquire, Granta, and many other publications.

Hometown:

Sacramento, California

Date of Birth:

July 28, 1959

Place of Birth:

Santa Monica, California

Education:

Attended Deep Springs College and Cornell University

Read an Excerpt

When We Kept the Lights On

We all have in us the ghosts of long-vanished things, of fallen cities and marvelous machines.
Gene Wolfe, 1982

Someday, perhaps not long from now, the inhabitants of a hotter, more dangerous and biologically diminished planet than the one on which I lived may wonder what you and I were thinking, or whether we thought at all. This book is for them.

When I read another embrittled document predicting the disappearance of bison from the American Plains, my melancholy is untainted by urgency. Captive bison do survive, but the great herds have been gone since 1884. And as I write this book about coal, oil, natural gas and atomic power, I do my best to look as will the future upon the world in which I lived—namely, as surely, safely vanished. Nothing can be done to save it; therefore, nothing need be done. Hence this little book scrapes by without offering solutions. There were none; we had none. All the same, it may not be uninteresting to learn what went on in the minds of buffalo hunters, Indian killers, coal miners, freeway drivers, homeowners and nuclear engineers.

In the time when I lived, it was still possible to meet Americans who disbelieved in global warming, although the ones I knew became shyer and rarer in about 2013. In 2016, they helped elect Donald Trump President, upon which their various carbon ideologies naturally came roaring back.

“We sure need a good Sierra snowpack this year,” said a contractor friend of mine. “Skiing was lousy last year and the year before. If we can only get some snow, that will make those global warming people shut up.”—That was just before Christmas. Come spring, the snowpack was 6% of what we had been calling normal. But why not call California a special case? Up in Washington the snowpack was a full 16% of what it should have been; and by May, “seeing things happen at this time of year we just have never seen before,” Governor Inslee declared a “statewide drought emergency.”—Fortunately,my contractor friend was vindicated, and those global warming people utterly foiled, for after a long dry year, the subsequent winter blew flurry-rich,and by January the Sierra snow level had reached 115%!

February turned unseasonably warm. The leftwing hoaxers got impudent again. As for the skeptics, they took strength in the fact that carbon forecasters of other stripes had been wrong before, in token of which I quote from my grandfather’s Mechanical Engineers’ Handbook, copyright 1958: Petroleum would soon run out! The peak of production in the United States should come about 1965. . . World shortage of petroleum may be expected to begin about 1960.— If only!— As for coal, in predicting that American production would reach its height in about 1975 the Handbook was not far wrong, but it anticipated that a world shortage of total world fossil fuels. . . would be noticeable around that same year, which is precisely when a build-your-own-alternative-style-house primer warned us all: A Federal Power Commission staff study, released in January of 1975, concluded that natural gas production from the forty-eight contiguous states has reached its peak and will decline for the indefinite future.—We were all on theverge of getting cold!—But in 1993 the National Coal Association announced that “at present rates of use” our coal reserves can be expected to last nearly 250 years. There are about 1,000 tons of recoverable coal for every man, woman and child in the United States. Then came fracking, which afforded gas enough to toast us in our planetary oven.

In each of these dull and distant comedies, we got condemned to future deprivation, and then the diagnosis brightened! (I myself got cynical; I didn’t care; I chalked it up to financial manipulation.) In 1999 my atlas advised me that oil might last another 40 years if we were lucky. And in 2015, as I sat beside the automatic gas fire, writing Carbon Ideologies, Iran announced intentions to increase her gas output by 40% in the next five years, while coal prices fell farther; oil prices had just decreased again: There remained enough fossil fuels to choke us all! So why not deal sharply with pessimists, or refrain from dealing with them at all? Mr. Jonathan Lee, whose company rented out supertankers, felt as excited as a rookie because you are seeing history change before your eyes! China and India meanwhile began seizing a bargain opportunity to top off their petroleum reserves. The prior errors of prophecy proved that no one knew anything about anything; therefore, climate change was the merest hot air.

Not far from the disbelievers dwelled those who couldn’t be bothered about “an ecosystem somewhere.” In 2016 a kindly barber told me: “I don’t really think none about it, although I have to say that when I see people pick up cigarette butts from the sidewalk I appreciate their caring, and people that care about the earth, I mean, that’s nice, and when I think about the polar bears losing their land, I do feel touched about that, because I care a lot about animals.” For him, an ecosystem was something to watch on television while he ate takeout pizza. He was a decent fellow who had never been consulted by the carbon vendors—whose systems of extraction and delivery had long since become invisibly ubiquitous.

In 2014 my friend Philip, a cheerful, hardworking realtor in his early 40s, allowed that global warming might exist, but that it was natural and “evolutionary”; the human race had little to do with it. For years we had drunk together and listened to each other, so I asked him to tell me more. “Why should I concentrateon anything that stresses me out?” he demanded, and when I saw that the subject might dent his cheerfulness, I changed it.

Kindred sorts reassured me that our new weather was “natural” and cyclical,and therefore required no action. Indeed, precious little action was taken. For more than 40 years, Homer City Generating Station in Pennsylvania has spewed sulfur dioxide from two of its three units completely unchecked,. . . because it is largely exempt from federal air pollution laws. . . Last year, the facility released 114,245 tons of sulfur dioxide, more than all of the power plants in neighboring New York combined. This pollutant was both a killer of many organisms and a dangerous “precursor” gas with unpredictable effects on the climate. In 2011,the Environmental Protection Agency finally demanded that Homer City cleanup. After threatening immediate and devastating consequences and losing a lawsuit—the utility found a way to comply—without even raising its electricity rates. When I read this tale in the newspaper, my first emotion was happy astonishment that mitigation had proved so practicable—after which I felt all the more amazed that Big Coal kept digging in its heels against reducing harmful emissions elsewhere—and was allowed to do so—while Big Oil and Big Frack behaved much the same. (As for Big Nuke, its mantra, as we shall see, was: No immediate danger.)— In 2017, a fellow who had repeatedly sued the EPA was appointed to run the agency. Well, after all, who gave a damn about some old ecosystem somewhere? (A newspaper item: Pounded Again, Coastal Town May Consider a Retreat. Just repairing and repairing the sea walls—it isn’t a permanent solution with the ocean coming ever closer to us. Those words used to be exotic, back when I was alive.) Who could say whether somewhere might be here? That ecosystem’s peculiarities had always lain beyond our ken. Although odorless methane might be accompanied by the scent of crude oil, and while carbon dioxide, that colorless gas with a faintly pungent odor and acid taste, sometimes heralded itself in jet trails and smokestack-clouds, both of these quickly vanished into our all-accepting sky. Then what? As a West Virginian pastor told me (you will meet him in the coal section): “Here you do see the smokestacks and you know that they do put off the smoke and everything, but it seems to me that the earth is so large and there are so many trees and everything that how could manmade equipment put up enough smoke to make a difference?” His question was absolutely reasonable. Answering it would have required the help of scientists, instruments and historical records. Even then, causation could never be proved. All one might hope to establish was plausible correlation with predictive value. Most of us were non-correlators; to us the clashing claims felt wearisome, complicated, inscrutable. It took me all my life merely to understand aspects of myself—and why shouldn’t the latest scaremongers be as wrong as the Cassandras of  “peak oil”? In Bangladesh I met coal mine workers and even a labor union leader who had never heard of global warming; of course they asserted that there was “no alternative” to coal extraction. Indeed, they proved their own point.

I remember another courteous old West Virginian who had just been speaking cogently about his childhood, his coal miner father and the decline of coal extraction in Appalachia; he grew vaguer when I requested his views on climate change: “I’m sure it’s got something to do with the situation on TV”—meaning that he had seen television footage of weather-related disasters, and supposed that global warming might be part of the cause. “That’s part of the pollution problem,” he allowed. Then he added, and I failed to follow his logic, “That’s why the EPA is doing what they are, stepping beyond their authority, I think, in a lotof ways.”

“Do you think coal contributes to global warming?”

He reassured me: “They’ve got technology now that can cut all the pollution out.”

Had it only been so!— In fact it was so a little bit, as Homer City unwillingly proved—but our captains of fuel and electricity resisted even that little for all they were worth, which was plenty.

Anyhow, that good old man, who cannot be faulted for the incompleteness of his knowledge on greenhouse gases; and the disdainers of somewhere-nowhere ecosystems, the gloom-and-doom handwringers like me, the climate change deniers and the consoling weather-cycle asserters, we were all outnumbered by ordinary practical folks for whom cheap energy and a paycheck incarnated all relevance. One fellow wrote in to the newspaper: My son works in the coalfields ofsouthern West Virginia[;] he supports my two grandchildren by mining the coal that keeps the lights on in America—this last phrase being often used by my nation’s carbon ideologues. So I know first hand the importance of winning the war on coal that Obama declared five years ago. Whether it was truly Obama who started it, who our enemy was, and whether America’s lights might beneficially be dimmed here and there, failed to encumber him. The maintenance of his two grandchildren trumped other arguments; their needs caused him to know firsthand the small selfish thing that he knew. I will not celebrate him, but I decline to blame him, either. Why should his kin go hungry? (You in our future can go hungry instead; after all, we don’t even know you.)

In The Wall Street Journal’s “Notable & Quotable” section, a so‑called “environmental writer” enlarged his argument into a carbon eulogy:

In 1971 China derived 40 percent of its energy from renewables. Since then, it has powered its incredible growth almost exclusively on heavily polluting coal, lifting a historic 680 million people out of poverty. . . A recent analysis from the Centre for Global Development shows that $10 billion invested in such renewables [as solar energy] would help lift 20 million people in Africa out of poverty. It sounds impressive, until you learn that if this sum was spent on gas electrification it would lift 90 million people out of poverty. So in choosing to spend that $10 billion on renewables, we deliberately end up choosing to leave more than 70 million people in darkness and poverty.

In other words, back when I lived, some of us believed that heavily polluting coal could somehow lift people out of poverty without impoverishing us in anymore fundamental way. We believed that because it was convenient to believe it. So we kept the lights on.

Table of Contents

List of Maps and Illustrations xvi

0 When We Kept the Lights On 1

About* the "Primer" Section 17

About Tables 19

About Photographs 20

Primer

What Was the Work For? 25

Power Wastage by Group-Driven Machine Tools, ca. 1945 32

About Waste 33

Power Wastage During Machining Operations at an Unspecified Toyota Factory, ca. 2000 38

Power Wastage by Devices in Standby Mode, 2000-2010 41

About Demand 42

What Was the Work For? (continued) 44

Ratios of Per Capita Power Consumption to Per Capita Gross Domestic Product 51

Comparative Energy Requirements, in multiples of 1 British Thermal Unit I 55

About Power 60

Per Capita Power Consumption, ca. 1925 and ca. 2014, in multiples of the 1925 Japanese average 63

Comparative Power Requirements and Energy Usages, in multiples of what was needed per minute ca. 1975 to operate a plug-in vibrator 67

What Was the Work For? (continued) 76

Energy Required to Move an American Car One Mile, 1949 and 2010 76

Carbon Ideologies Approached 79

About Data 89

About Data Suppression 91

About Disbelief 93

"Consider It Good Fortune" 96

Carbon Dioxide Concentrations in Our Atmosphere, as Recorded at Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii, 1959 and 2004, in multiples of the 1959 value 96

Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Fuel Combustion, World and Selected Countries, 1971 and 2004, in multiples of the U.S. percentage increase over that period 98

Carbon Ideologies Defined 104

About Carbon 106

About Agriculture 111

The Three Most Dangerous Greenhouse Gases as of 2011, their percentage increases since 1750 and their percentages of total national emissions 120

About Industrial Chemicals 124

The Parable of Adipic Acid 128

About Manufacturing 132

Energy and Coal Requirements to Manufacture One Pound Each of the "Big Five" Materials, ca. 2013, in multiples of the energy needed for cement 134

About Transportation 143

The Three Most Dangerous Sectors of Human Activity, 2012-14 144

Maximum-Range Carbon Dioxide Emissions of Selected Aircraft, in multiples of the "Pampa" Argentine attack jet's (2003) 148

About Power Plants 150

Innate Energies versus Actual Electric Power Generated: Oil, Coal and Natural Gas, in multiples of the energy loss for oil (U.S.A., 2014) 152

Comparative Power Efficiencies, in multiples of lowest gas-turbine efficiency as of 1957 155

Power and Climate 158

Power Generation's Share of Greenhouse Gas Emissions for Selected Countries, 2007-14, in multiples of the 2012 European Union value 158

Primary Greenhouse Gas and Precursor Emissions from American Power Generation, 2014, in multiples of the value for nitrous oxide 159

About Solar Energy 161

Solar Energy En Route to Earth's Surface, by seasonal angular alterations and by atmospheric absorption and refraction, ca. 1957, 1976 161

About Greenhouse Gases 170

Comparative Carbon Dioxide Emissions of Power Plants, 2014, in multiples of those released by natural gas facilities 170

Comparative One-Century Global Warming Potentials, in multiples of carbon dioxide's 176

Comparative Responsibilities for Greenhouse Gas Emissions, 2007, in multiples of the figure for food production 188

About Fuels 189

Average Fuel Consumption in Moving One American Electric Light Rail Car One Mile, ca. 1979, in multiples of pounds of gasoline required 192

Carbon Dioxide Emissions of Common Fuels, in multiples of natural gas's (2007) 199

Carbon Dioxide Emissions of Common Fuels, in multiples of lignite's 200

Criticisms of Common Fuels, 1980-2012 205

Comparative Calorific Efficiencies, in multiples of the thermal energy of blast furnace gas 208

Nuclear

Nuclear Ideology 221

About Uranium 228

Calorific Efficiencies of Coal, Oil, Natural Gas, Uranium-235 and Plutonium-239, in multiples of the thermal energy of coal 234

About Nuclear Reactors 236

1 Lower than for Real Estate Agents 241

Comparative Measured Radiation Levels, 2014-15 (with Hiroshima readings from 2017), in multiples of lowest Sacramento interior reading 244

March 2011: When the Wind Blows from the South (Fukushima) 257

Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Fossil Fuels: Japan, U.S. and World, 1980 and 2011, in multiples of the 1980 Japanese value 275

February 2014: Harmful Rumors (Fukushima) 322

Relative Strontium-90 Concentrations in Perch Lake (Canada), 1963 342

October 2014, with a Hanford Excursion in August 2015: The Red Zones (Hanford, Washington; Fukushima) 396

Lowest and Highest Measured One-Minute Average Radioactivities in Selected Safe Cities, 2014-15 410

Concentrations of Radioactive Phosphorus at Hanford Nuclear Site, 1954-58 417

Other Concentration Factors at Hanford, 1954-58 417

Measured Radioactivities of Selected Drainpipes and Sewer Gratings, 2014-15 419

Comparative Average Radiation Levels, 2014, in multiples of the Sacramento average 425

Cesium Concentrations in Iitate Mushrooms, 2014 442

Cesium-137 Released in the World's Two Worst Nuclear Disasters 469

How Radioactive Was It? or, Extracts from an Official Website 487

Normalization on the Rocks 499

Lowest and Highest Radiation Measurements in Selected Red Zone Cities, 2014 502

Their Standard Is as Arbitrary as Ours: Some allowable cesium concentrations in food, Ukraine and Japan 506

Postscript: Japan Sees the Light 513

Global Distribution of Nuclear Reactors in 2014, with added statistics 513

Definitions, Units and Conversions 517

Table 1: Commonly Mentioned Radiocontaminants in Fukushima 537

Table 2: Other Isotopes of Interest 539

Radioactivity of Selected Library Interiors, 2014-15 542

Dosimeter and Frisker Readings at Various Dental X-Ray Settings, 2015 552

Multiples of Outdoor Background Level at Dentist's Office, 2015 553

Carbon Dioxide Emissions of Various Fuels When Producing 2013 American Winter Peak Electrical Load Capacity, in multiples of natural gas's 598

Acknowledgments 601

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