The Only Three Questions That Count: Investing by Knowing What Others Don't

The Only Three Questions That Count: Investing by Knowing What Others Don't

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Product Details

ISBN-13: 9780470292679
Publisher: Wiley
Publication date: 10/20/2008
Series: Fisher Investments Press Series
Edition description: Reprint
Pages: 480
Product dimensions: 5.60(w) x 8.60(h) x 1.30(d)

About the Author

Ken Fisher is best known for his prestigious "Portfolio Strategy" column in Forbes magazine, where his twenty-four year tenure of high-profile calls makes him the fourth longest-running columnist in Forbes' 90-year history. Ken is the founder, Chairman, and CEO of Fisher Investments—an independent, global money management firm with over $45 billion under management—and has appeared in most major American finance or business periodicals. He is also the author of the new investment book, The Ten Roads to Riches, from Wiley.

Jennifer Chou is a Research Analyst of global capital markets and macroeconomics at Fisher Investments. She graduated from the University of California with a BS in finance.

Lara Hoffmans is a Research Analyst at Fisher Investments. She graduated from the University of Notre Dame with a BA in theatre.

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Table of Contents

Acknowledgments.

Foreword.

Preface.

Who Am I to Tell You Something That Counts?

Idiots and Professionals: Oh, but I Repeat Myself.

Because Mr. Crafty, It's Not a Craft.

It's All Latin to Me—Starting to Think like a Scientist.

The Only Three Questions That Count.

1 Question One: What Do You Believe That Is Actually False?

If You Knew It Was Wrong, You Wouldn't Believe It.

The Mythological Correlation.

Always Look at It Differently.

When You Are Really, Really Wrong.

2 Question Two: What Can You Fathom That Others Find Unfathomable?

Fathoming the Unfathomable.

Ignore the Rock in the Bushes.

Discounting the Media Machine and Advanced Fad Avoidance.

The Shocking Truth about Yield Curves.

What the Yield Curve Is Trying to Tell You.

The Presidential Term Cycle.

3 Question Three: What the Heck Is My Brain Doing to Blindside Me Now?

It’s Not Your Fault—Blame Evolution.

Cracking the Stone Age Code—Pride and Regret.

The Great Humiliator's Favorite Tricks.

Get Your Head Out of the Cave.

4 Capital Markets Technology.

Building and Putting Capital Markets Technology into Practice.

It's Good while It Lasts.

Forecast with Accuracy, Not like a Professional.

Better Living through Global Benchmarking.

5 When There's No There, There!

Johns Hopkins, My Grampa, Life Lessons, and Pulling a Gertrude.

In the Center Ring—Oil versus Stocks.

Sell in May because the January Effect Will Dampen Your Santa Claus Rally Unless There Is a Witching Effect.

6 No, It's Just the Opposite.

When You Are Wrong—Really, Really, Really Wrong.

Multiplier Effects and the Heroin-Addicted Apple iPod Borrower.

Let's Trade This Deficit for That One.

The New Gold Standard.

7 Shocking but True.

Supply and Demand . . . and That's It.

Weak Dollar, Strong Dollar—What Does It Matter?

8 The Great Humiliator and Your Stone-Age Brain.

That Predictable Market.

Anatomy of a Bubble.

Some Basic Bear Rules.

What Causes a Bear Market?

9 Putting It All Together.

Stick with Your Strategy and Stick It to Him.

Four Rules That Count.

Finally! How to Pick Stocks That Only Win.

When the Heck Do You Sell?

Conclusion.

Transformationalism.

Appendix A: U.S. Equity Total Returns 1830 to 1925.

Appendix B: S&P 500 Composite Returns.

Appendix C: Simulated Technology Returns.

Appendix D: Nasdaq Composite Returns.

Appendix E: U.K. Stock Market Total Returns.

Appendix F: U.K. Stock Market (FTSE All-Share) Total Returns.

Appendix G: Germany Stock Market Returns.

Appendix H: Germany Stock Market (DAX) Total Returns.

Appendix I: Japan Stock Market Total Returns.

Appendix J: Japan Stock Market (TOPIX) Total Returns.

Appendix K: Fisher Investments Global Total Return Performance.

Appendix L: Ten-Year History of the Forbes Report Card.

Appendix M: The United Deficits: Data.

Notes.

Glossary.

Index.

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Only Three Questions That Count: Investing by Knowing What Others Don't 4.5 out of 5 based on 0 ratings. 11 reviews.
Guest More than 1 year ago
One of the best finance related books I have ever read. Finally, someone tells the truth on investing. This book should be required reading in all college MBA programs.
Guest More than 1 year ago
A truly humorous book about what could be some really dry material. Ken is awesome in making what others make complex, easy to understand and backs it up with objective clear data. The numbers don't lie. I've busted a gut numerous times with is explanations and ideas. I love his direct and 'no agenda' approach. He is humble, believe it or not, by stating 'I could be wrong, but prove it.'
Guest More than 1 year ago
Ken Fisher is one of the most famous market pundits and money managers in the United States, and one of the few to occupy a spot on the Forbes list of America's richest people. In this book, he debunks conventional wisdom and widely believed folklore about securities markets and the process of investing. He suggests a sort of investors' examination of conscience: They should routinely ask themselves three simple, straightforward questions to ensure that they are not falling into avoidable error: Which of my beliefs are false? What can I understand that others cannot understand? And, what cognitive illusions are fooling me now? He provides ample supporting research to buttress his assertions about the market and, more to the point, to topple the false wisdom that leads so many investors to failure. We find that Fisher is lucid, strongly opinionated, sometimes a bit of a crank (a long tangent on Gertrude Stein seems particularly out of place in this book) but, on the whole, well worth reading.
Guest More than 1 year ago
I saw Mr. Fisher on Bloomberg TV and bought his book. He's very irreverent live, and a lot of that carries over to his writing style. But he also disproved some of what I was taught were fairly basic investing 'truisms.' As I read the first couple of chapters, I assumed he was just being a contrarian (e.g., he says federal budget deficits are actually good for the stock market and US economy) but he backs up all of his statements thoroughly with both data and theory. The book is very extensive. I don't have much of a background in macro economics, so his explanations of monetary policy and inflation was very helpful. I'll admit, some of the more technical stuff will require a second read through, but he does a good job explaining concepts that usually go straight over my head. I can imagine this book sparking impassioned debate for years. But, with a lot of data on his side, and a disdain for statistical tomfoolery, Fisher's dissenters better come to the table armed with a good scientific proof of why they're right.
stockbookworm on LibraryThing 5 months ago
By far the smartest investment book ever written. Fisher has been listed on the Forbes' Richest Persons list and the son of the late, great Philip Fisher... No slouch in the market himself. Fisher shows why he is one of the greatest money managers of all time. Insightful about what he teaches and how he thinks about the world markets and the relationships between them all. Five Stars!
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Guest More than 1 year ago
Finally! Someone who tells the truth crushes all the popular investing myths and doesn¿t sugar coat it! This book is not for Republican Conservatives, Democrat Liberals or any Moderate-see chapter 1¿he¿ll make you laugh with the truth of the matter. Statistics are your friend and he makes them easy to understand and use. This is simply the best investment book in our time for the average investor as well as for professionals.