Paying the Human Costs of War: American Public Opinion and Casualties in Military Conflicts

by Christopher Gelpi, Peter D. Feaver, Jason Reifler

Overview

From the Korean War to the current conflict in Iraq, Paying the Human Costs of War examines the ways in which the American public decides whether to support the use of military force. Contrary to the conventional view, the authors demonstrate that the public does not respond reflexively and solely to the number of casualties in a conflict. Instead, the book argues that the public makes reasoned and reasonable cost-benefit calculations for their continued support of a war based on the justifications for it and the likelihood it will succeed, along with the costs that have been suffered in casualties. Of these factors, the book finds that the most important consideration for the public is the expectation of success. If the public believes that a mission will succeed, the public will support it even if the costs are high. When the public does not expect the mission to succeed, even small costs will cause the withdrawal of support.


Providing a wealth of new evidence about American attitudes toward military conflict, Paying the Human Costs of War offers insights into a controversial, timely, and ongoing national discussion.

Product Details

ISBN-13:	9780691139081
Publisher:	Princeton University Press
Publication date:	03/01/2009
Edition description:	New Edition
Pages:	280
Product dimensions:	6.00(w) x 9.10(h) x 0.80(d)

About the Author

Christopher Gelpi is professor of political science at Duke University. He is the author of The Power of Legitimacy (Princeton). Peter D. Feaver is the Alexander F. Hehmeyer Professor of Political Science and Public Policy at Duke University. From 2005 to 2007, he served as a special advisor on the National Security Council. Feaver and Gelpi are the coauthors of Choosing Your Battles (Princeton). Jason Reifler is assistant professor of political science at Georgia State University.

Table of Contents

LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS viii

LIST OF TABLES ix

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS xiii

CHAPTER ONE: Theories of American Attitudes toward Warfare 1

CHAPTER TWO: America's Tolerance for Casualties, 1950-2006 23

CHAPTER THREE: Measuring Individual Attitudes toward Military Conflict 67

CHAPTER FOUR: Experimental Evidence on Attitudes toward Military Conflict 98

CHAPTER FIVE: Individual Attitudes toward the Iraq War, 2003-2004 125

CHAPTER SIX: Iraq the Vote: War and the Presidential Election of 2004 167

CHAPTER SEVEN: The Sources and Meaning of Success in Iraq 188

CHAPTER EIGHT: Conclusion 236

BIBLIOGRAPHY 265

INDEX 283

What People are Saying About This

Michael O'Hanlon

Gelpi, Feaver, and Reifler have written the most rigorous and thorough—yet also readable and accessible—study of Americans' stomach for war yet published. It is well grounded in Feaver's recent real-world political experience, though there is nothing partisan or self-serving about the book. The practical touch his experience provides is the perfect complement to the academic sophistication underlying the core of the authors' analysis. The new survey data, careful review of the existing literature, commonsense analysis of recent U.S. warfighting operations, and logical clarity of the authors' thinking make the book's main arguments very persuasive.
— Michael O'Hanlon, Brookings Institution

Campbell

Paying the Human Costs of War, an ambitious and provocative new book by three distinguished military commentators, takes on the conventional wisdom that Americans are skittish about casualty numbers, and argues instead that the American people have a much more sophisticated calculus about decisions associated with fighting and dying. A deeply important read for policymakers, military commanders, and the interested public alike.
— Kurt M. Campbell, Center for a New American Security

Richard Herrmann

This book shows that although the U.S. public is sensitive to U.S. casualties suffered in war, the public is more sensitive to perceived defeat and will continue to support operations abroad as long as they are persuaded victory is still likely. The book's arguments are well presented and bolstered with an impressive array of first-rate empirical evidence.
— Richard Herrmann, Ohio State University

Helmut Norpoth

This is a superb, profound, and most timely study of wartime opinion. It offers a compelling antidote to the conventional wisdom that popular support for military missions inevitably collapses with rising casualties. The wide historical sweep along with rigorous statistical tests places this work in a class by itself.
— Helmut Norpoth, Stony Brook University

From the Publisher

"Paying the Human Costs of War, an ambitious and provocative new book by three distinguished military commentators, takes on the conventional wisdom that Americans are skittish about casualty numbers, and argues instead that the American people have a much more sophisticated calculus about decisions associated with fighting and dying. A deeply important read for policymakers, military commanders, and the interested public alike."—Kurt M. Campbell, Center for a New American Security

"Gelpi, Feaver, and Reifler have written the most rigorous and thorough—yet also readable and accessible—study of Americans' stomach for war yet published. It is well grounded in Feaver's recent real-world political experience, though there is nothing partisan or self-serving about the book. The practical touch his experience provides is the perfect complement to the academic sophistication underlying the core of the authors' analysis. The new survey data, careful review of the existing literature, commonsense analysis of recent U.S. warfighting operations, and logical clarity of the authors' thinking make the book's main arguments very persuasive."—Michael O'Hanlon, Brookings Institution

"This is a superb, profound, and most timely study of wartime opinion. It offers a compelling antidote to the conventional wisdom that popular support for military missions inevitably collapses with rising casualties. The wide historical sweep along with rigorous statistical tests places this work in a class by itself."—Helmut Norpoth, Stony Brook University

"This book shows that although the U.S. public is sensitive to U.S. casualties suffered in war, the public is more sensitive to perceived defeat and will continue to support operations abroad as long as they are persuaded victory is still likely. The book's arguments are well presented and bolstered with an impressive array of first-rate empirical evidence."—Richard Herrmann, Ohio State University

Editorial Reviews

"Gelpi and Feaver, and Reifler have produced a most fascinating volume on the human costs of waging war. They set out to understand under what conditions Americans would support their leaders' decision to use military force. . . . Well researched and thoughtfully written."

Choice

One of Choice's Outstanding Academic Titles for 2009

From the Publisher

[T]his is a well-thought-out, well-organized and well-written book. In particular, the concluding summaries at the end of each chapter provide excellent reviews and syntheses of the arguments. The authors have posed many questions that should open new horizons for scholars and policy makers.

Journal of American Studies of Turkey - Cigdem Pakel Atahan

One measure of a book's quality is whether it generates questions for future research, and this one certainly fits the bill.

Perspectives on Politics - Jennifer L. Merolla

[T]he book is straightforward, well organized and a pleasure to read.

American Review of Politics - Thomas C. Shaw

Policy makers would be wise to heed the authors' findings regarding how to gain public trust and support when contemplating the future use of military power in achieving national objectives. For the citizenry, however, a warning also emerges: national leaders may attempt to keep a sinking policy ship afloat by remaining publically optimistic even when nothing can be done to save it.

Military History - Walter E. Kretchik

[T]his is a well-thought-out, well-organized and well-written book. In particular, the concluding summaries at the end of each chapter provide excellent reviews and syntheses of the arguments. The authors have posed many questions that should open new horizons for scholars and policy makers.
— Cigdem Pakel Atahan

Journal of American Studies of Turkey

One measure of a book's quality is whether it generates questions for future research, and this one certainly fits the bill.
— Jennifer L. Merolla

Perspectives on Politics

[T]he book is straightforward, well organized and a pleasure to read.
— Thomas C. Shaw

American Review of Politics

Policy makers would be wise to heed the authors' findings regarding how to gain public trust and support when contemplating the future use of military power in achieving national objectives. For the citizenry, however, a warning also emerges: national leaders may attempt to keep a sinking policy ship afloat by remaining publically optimistic even when nothing can be done to save it.
— Walter E. Kretchik

Military History