Power and Plenty: Trade, War, and the World Economy in the Second Millennium / Edition 1
International trade has shaped the modern world, yet until now no single book has been available for both economists and general readers that traces the history of the international economy from its earliest beginnings to the present day. Power and Plenty fills this gap, providing the first full account of world trade and development over the course of the last millennium.
Ronald Findlay and Kevin O'Rourke examine the successive waves of globalization and "deglobalization" that have occurred during the past thousand years, looking closely at the technological and political causes behind these long-term trends. They show how the expansion and contraction of the world economy has been directly tied to the two-way interplay of trade and geopolitics, and how war and peace have been critical determinants of international trade over the very long run. The story they tell is sweeping in scope, one that links the emergence of the Western economies with economic and political developments throughout Eurasia centuries ago. Drawing extensively upon empirical evidence and informing their systematic analysis with insights from contemporary economic theory, Findlay and O'Rourke demonstrate the close interrelationships of trade and warfare, the mutual interdependence of the world's different regions, and the crucial role these factors have played in explaining modern economic growth.
Power and Plenty is a must-read for anyone seeking to understand the origins of today's international economy, the forces that continue to shape it, and the economic and political challenges confronting policymakers in the twenty-first century.
Acknowledgments xiii Preface xvi Introduction: Geographical and Historical Background 1 Western Europe 4 Eastern Europe 11 North Africa and Southwest Asia: The Islamic World 15 Central (or Inner) Asia 24 South Asia 29 Southeast Asia 33 East Asia (China, Korea, and Japan) 37 The World Economy at the Turn of the First Millennium 43 The Golden Age of Islam 48 China: The Sung Economic Miracle 61 The Indian Ocean and Southeast Asian Trade 67 The Pirenne Thesis 71 Eastern Europe: The Viking Connection 73 The Economy of Western Europe 80 World Trade 1000-1500: The Economic Consequences of Genghis Khan 87 Trade and War in the Mediterranean and the Black sea, 1000-1350 88 The Indian Ocean and the South China Sea, 1000-1350 98 The Pax Mongolica and Overland Trade, 1000-1350 101 Eurasia on the Eve of the Black Death 109 The Black Death 111 Trade between Western and Eastern Europe, 1350-1500 120 Overland Trade, 1350-1500: The Aftermath of the PaxMongolica 124 The Emergence of Russia 126 The Middle East, the Mediterranean, and International Trade, 1350-1500 127 Southeast Asia and China, 1350-1500 133 Quantifying the Late Medieval Spice Trade 140 World Trade 1500-1650: Old World Trade and New World Silver 143 Portugal, the Atlantic, and the Indian Ocean 145 Spain, Portugal, and the New World 158 The Pacific and East Asia 167 The Dutch Rise to Primacy in World Trade 175 Russia, Sweden, and the Baltic, 1500-1650 187 Southeast Asia during the Age of Commerce 194 The Cape Route, Venice, and the Middle East 204 Silver, Silk, and Spices 212 World Trade 1650-1780: The Age of Mercantilism 227 Origins of the British Empire: Trade, Plunder, and Settlement 229 Mercantilism, Commercial Rivalry, and the Anglo-Dutch Wars 238 Britain, France, and the Dutch Republic 245 Britain and France: Commercial Expansion and the Second Hundred Years' War 247 India: The Disintegration of the Mughal Empire and the Transition to Colonial Rule 262 Southeast Asia and the End of the Age of Commerce 275 The Manchu Empire 284 China's Overseas Trade 286 Chinese and Russian Overland Trade 295 Conclusion 304 Trade and the Industrial Revolution 311 Trade during the Industrial Revolution 324 Trade, Overseas Expansion, and the Industrial Revolution 330 Why Britain? Why Europe and Not Asia? 346 Conclusion 364 World Trade 1780-1914: The Great Specialization 365 War and Revolution 366 The Revolutionary and Napoleonic Wars: Short-Run Implications 369 The Revolutionary and Napoleonic Wars: Long-Run Implications 371 The Industrial Revolution and Transportation Technology 378 Bulk Commodities and Heckscher-Ohlin Effects 383 Nineteenth-Century Imperialism 387 Nineteenth-Century Trade Policy 395 Commodity Market Integration, 1815-1914 402 Complementary Factor Flows and the Great Frontier 407 Trade and the Global Division of Labor 411 Trade, Tropical Frontiers, and the Great Divergence 414 The Terms of Trade 424 Conclusion 425 World Trade 1914-39: Deglobalization 429 World War I 429 The Aftermath of War 435 Interwar Commercial Policy 443 Transport Costs 455 The Volume of World Trade 458 Price Convergence and Divergence 461 The Great Depression, the Collapse of World Trade, and the Developing Countries 465 The Collapse of the Ottoman Empire 469 Conclusion 471 Reglobalization: The Late Twentieth Century in Historical Perspective 473 World War II 473 Geopolitical Consequences: Communism, the Cold War, and Decolonization 476 The Gradual Reconstruction of the Atlantic Economy: 1950-70 489 Policy Divergence: 1945-80 493 Reglobalization: 1980-2000 496 International Transport Costs 501 Trends in Openness: Quantities and Prices 505 Unraveling the Great Specialization 512 Openness and Convergence in the Late Twentieth Century 515 Conclusion 525 Globalization at the Dawn of the Twenty-First Century 527 The Future of Globalization: Economic Challenges 534 The Future of Globalization: Political Challenges 539 Bibliography 547 Index 593
This book, magisterial in scope and execution, marries a reading of voluminous historical research with an economist's sharp eye to what is important in shaping economies and events. The authors have drawn exhaustively on the secondary historical, political, and economic literature of the relevant periods and have integrated it faithfully with their own conceptual framework. Douglas A. Irwin, Dartmouth College
A work of extraordinary scope and ambition and a major achievement. Findlay and O'Rourke show how international trade opens an illuminating window onto fully a millennium of world economic history. Barry Eichengreen, University of California, Berkeley
The significance of this work lies in its comprehensiveness and the unflagging thoughtfulness of its analysis. It is very rare to find such detailed historical coverage resting on such a solid theoretical foundation. Eric L. Jones, author of "The European Miracle" and "Cultures Merging"
The vision that emerges in this book is more powerful and encompassing than any previous study of world trade. It passes all the tests that an economic historian might require in terms of empirical evidence while also embodying a very clear view of the economics of globalization. The authors have new and important things to say about trade and the Industrial Revolution, the Great Divergence, the extent and driving forces of the globalization of trade in different periods, and the possibility of another globalization backlash. A marvelous achievement. Nicholas Crafts, University of Warwick
Trade has been the economic foundation of international integration and globalization. But, as Findlay and O'Rourke show in this masterful, state-of-the-art historical survey, it has also been a very frequent cause of rivalry between nations and maritime conflict. No better book exists on the role that commerce has played in generating both the wealth of nations and the wars between them. The authors command the literature the way Victorian admirals ruled the waves. Niall Ferguson, Harvard University
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