Profiting in Economic Storms: A Historic Guide To Surviving Depression, Deflation, HyperInflation, and Market Bubbles

Profiting in Economic Storms: A Historic Guide To Surviving Depression, Deflation, HyperInflation, and Market Bubbles

by Daniel S. Shaffer



Product Details

ISBN-13: 9780470596333
Publisher: Wiley
Publication date: 11/02/2010
Pages: 240
Product dimensions: 6.20(w) x 9.10(h) x 1.00(d)

About the Author

Daniel S. Shaffer is president and CEO of Shaffer Asset Management, Inc. He is a certifi ed public accountant (CPA) as well as chartered fi nancial consultant (ChFC). He has a master's of science degree in accounting from New York University and bachelor's degree in speech communications from Syracuse University.

Table of Contents

Preface xi

Acknoweledgments xvii

Chapter 1 The Current Economic Storm 1

Is It Deflation or Depression" 2

The Government Cannot Save this Sinking Ship 4

Protecting What You Have 7

Profiting from the Coming Deflationary Depression 8

Preparing for the Next Hyperinflation Cycle 10

Summary 10

Part 1 Human Nature in Economic Storms

Chapter 2 Battling Your Natural Instincts 15

The Hopeful Investor 16

The Fearful Investor 18

The Herd or Crowd Effect 19

Believing in Others 23

Summary 25

Chapter 3 Getting What You Want Out of Life and Investing 27

Winning with the Hand You're Dealt 29

Gaining the Investment Edge through the Powers Within 31

Part 2 Deciphering the Financial System

Chapter 4 Do Economic Releases Tell the Whole Truth" 37

The Ripples from a Drop of Data 38

What Revised Releases Tell Us 40

Putting the Numbers in Perspective 42

Don't Believe Everything You Hear, Read, or See 44

Chapter 5 Accounting Irregularities and Financial Statement Shenanigans 47

Cash versus Accrual Accounting 48

A Problem with Training and Resources 49

Why There are So Many Frauds 53

The GE Restatement 55

Accounting's Many Disguises 56

Summary 58

Chapter 6 Whatever Happened to Modern Portfolio Theory and Asset Allocation Models" 59

The Effect of Asset Pricing Shifts on Modern Portfolio Theory 62

The Failure of the Efficient Market Hypothesis 65

Summary 66

Part 3 Learning from the Past

Chapter 7 Fallen Civilizations 71

Roman Empire 72

Ancient Greece 79

Ancient Egypt 86

Why Look at History" 93

Chapter 8 The History of the U.S. Banking System 95

Bank of North America (1782-1785) 97

The First Bank of the United States (1791-1811) 99

The Second Bank of the United States (1816-1836) 99

The Free Banking Era (1837-1862) 102

National Banks (1863-1913) 104

The Federal Reserve System (1913-Present) 108

Leading the United States into the Next Cycle 120

Who Owns the Federal Reserve" 124

Chapter 9 Famous Market Manias 125

The Tulip Bulb Mania (1634-1637) 127

The South Sea Bubble (1719-1722) 128

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (1921-1932) 130

The Value Line Composite Index (1965-1975) 131

The Spot Gold Bubble (1975-2000) 133

The Nikkei 225 Index (1985-2009") 134

The Dow Again (1980-2009") 135

Detecting the Next Market Mania 137

Part 4 Nature's Role in Engineering the Markets

Chapter 10 Natural Cycles and the Financial Markets 141

Using Solar Cycles as Indicators 142

Nature's Lessons for Finance 149

Living in Tune with the Cycles 155

Chapter 11 Investment Cycles 157

The Delta Phenomenon 159

Elliott Wave Principle 162

Fibonacci Numbers 168

Terry Laundry's T Theory 173

Summary 177

Chapter 12 Engineering of the Markets 181

The Floor Trader's Pivot Points 182

Finding Your Trading Style 186

Identifying the Engineers 190

Chapter 13 The Bottom Line 193

Recongnizing Cycles Everywhere 193

What to do Right Now 195

Up Next: Inflation or Hyperinflation 198

And Then: The New Bubble 200

Summary 201

About the Author 203

Index 205

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