Bridging the gap between the scientific approach to international relations and the intuitive analysis of the government foreign affairs specialist, this book reports on a concerted effort by the CIA to apply modern social science methods to problems confronted by political intelligence analysts. The unique experience gained through this CIA progra
|Publisher:||Taylor & Francis|
|Sold by:||Barnes & Noble|
|File size:||5 MB|
About the Author
Richards J. Heuer, Jr., is chief of the Methods and Forecasting Division of the CIA’s Office of Regional and Political Analysis. He has had over twenty-seven years of experience with the CIA and received his M.A. in international relations from the University of Southern California.
Table of ContentsOther Titles of Interest -- Preface -- Adapting Academic Methods and Models to Governmental Needs -- Bayesian Analysis: Estimating the Probability of Middle East Conflict -- Cross-Impact Analysis: Forecasting the Future of Rhodesia -- Regression Analysis: Impact of Economic Conditions on Left Voting in France -- Operationalizing a Theoretical Model: Profiles of Violence in Argentina, Ethiopia, and Thailand -- Content Analysis: Measuring Support for Brezhnev -- An Events Data Base for Analysis of Transnational Terrorism -- Multidimensional Scaling of UN Voting Behavior