Reducing the Vulnerability of Georgia's Agricultural Systems to Climate Change: Impact Assessment and Adaptation Options
Agriculture is one of the most climate-sensitive of all economic sectors. Georgia is one of the many countries where the majority of the rural population depends on agriculture—directly or indirectly—for their livelihood. Further, changes in climate and their impacts on agricultural systems and rural economies are already evident throughout Europe and Central Asia. The risks associated with climate change therefore pose an immediate and fundamental problem in the country. Adaptation measures now in use in Georgia, largely piecemeal efforts, will be insufficient to prevent impacts on agricultural production over the coming decades. As a result, there is growing interest at country and development partner levels to have a better understanding of the exposure, sensitivities, and impacts of climate change at the farm level, and to develop and prioritize adaptation measures to mitigate the adverse consequences. Beginning in 2009, the World Bank embarked on a program for selected Eastern Europe and Central Asian (ECA) client countries to enhance their ability to mainstream climate change adaptation into agricultural policies, programs, and investments. This multi-stage effort has included activities to raise awareness of the threat, analyze potential impacts and adaptation responses, and build capacity among client country stakeholders and ECA Bank staff with respect to climate change and the agricultural sector. This study, Reducing the Vulnerability of Georgia’s Agricultural Systems to Climate Change, is the culmination of efforts by the Georgian institutions and researchers, the World Bank, and a team of international experts jointly undertake an analytical study to address potential impacts climate change may have on Georgia’s agricultural sector, but, more importantly, to develop a list of prioritized measures to adapt to those impacts. Specifically, this study provides a menu of options for climate change adaptation in the agricultural and water resources sectors, along with specific recommended actions that are tailored to distinct agricultural regions within Georgia. These recommendations reflect the results of three inter-related activities, conducted jointly by the expert team and local partners: 1) quantitative economic modeling of baseline conditions and the effects of certain adaptation options; 2) qualitative analysis conducted by the expert team of agronomists, crop modelers, and water resource experts; and 3) input from a series of participatory workshops for farmers in each of the agricultural regions. Reducing the Vulnerability of Georgia’s Agricultural Systems to Climate Change is part of the World Bank Studies series. These papers are published to communicate the results of the Bank’s ongoing research and to stimulate public discussion. The study is one of three produced under the World Bank program “Reducing Vulnerability to Climate Change in European and Central Asian Agricultural Systems.” The other countries included in this series are Armenia and Azerbaijan. World Bank Studies are available individually or on standing order. This World Bank Studies series is also available online through the World Bank e-library (www.worldbank.org/elibrary).
1117991138
Reducing the Vulnerability of Georgia's Agricultural Systems to Climate Change: Impact Assessment and Adaptation Options
Agriculture is one of the most climate-sensitive of all economic sectors. Georgia is one of the many countries where the majority of the rural population depends on agriculture—directly or indirectly—for their livelihood. Further, changes in climate and their impacts on agricultural systems and rural economies are already evident throughout Europe and Central Asia. The risks associated with climate change therefore pose an immediate and fundamental problem in the country. Adaptation measures now in use in Georgia, largely piecemeal efforts, will be insufficient to prevent impacts on agricultural production over the coming decades. As a result, there is growing interest at country and development partner levels to have a better understanding of the exposure, sensitivities, and impacts of climate change at the farm level, and to develop and prioritize adaptation measures to mitigate the adverse consequences. Beginning in 2009, the World Bank embarked on a program for selected Eastern Europe and Central Asian (ECA) client countries to enhance their ability to mainstream climate change adaptation into agricultural policies, programs, and investments. This multi-stage effort has included activities to raise awareness of the threat, analyze potential impacts and adaptation responses, and build capacity among client country stakeholders and ECA Bank staff with respect to climate change and the agricultural sector. This study, Reducing the Vulnerability of Georgia’s Agricultural Systems to Climate Change, is the culmination of efforts by the Georgian institutions and researchers, the World Bank, and a team of international experts jointly undertake an analytical study to address potential impacts climate change may have on Georgia’s agricultural sector, but, more importantly, to develop a list of prioritized measures to adapt to those impacts. Specifically, this study provides a menu of options for climate change adaptation in the agricultural and water resources sectors, along with specific recommended actions that are tailored to distinct agricultural regions within Georgia. These recommendations reflect the results of three inter-related activities, conducted jointly by the expert team and local partners: 1) quantitative economic modeling of baseline conditions and the effects of certain adaptation options; 2) qualitative analysis conducted by the expert team of agronomists, crop modelers, and water resource experts; and 3) input from a series of participatory workshops for farmers in each of the agricultural regions. Reducing the Vulnerability of Georgia’s Agricultural Systems to Climate Change is part of the World Bank Studies series. These papers are published to communicate the results of the Bank’s ongoing research and to stimulate public discussion. The study is one of three produced under the World Bank program “Reducing Vulnerability to Climate Change in European and Central Asian Agricultural Systems.” The other countries included in this series are Armenia and Azerbaijan. World Bank Studies are available individually or on standing order. This World Bank Studies series is also available online through the World Bank e-library (www.worldbank.org/elibrary).
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Reducing the Vulnerability of Georgia's Agricultural Systems to Climate Change: Impact Assessment and Adaptation Options

Reducing the Vulnerability of Georgia's Agricultural Systems to Climate Change: Impact Assessment and Adaptation Options

Reducing the Vulnerability of Georgia's Agricultural Systems to Climate Change: Impact Assessment and Adaptation Options

Reducing the Vulnerability of Georgia's Agricultural Systems to Climate Change: Impact Assessment and Adaptation Options

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Overview

Agriculture is one of the most climate-sensitive of all economic sectors. Georgia is one of the many countries where the majority of the rural population depends on agriculture—directly or indirectly—for their livelihood. Further, changes in climate and their impacts on agricultural systems and rural economies are already evident throughout Europe and Central Asia. The risks associated with climate change therefore pose an immediate and fundamental problem in the country. Adaptation measures now in use in Georgia, largely piecemeal efforts, will be insufficient to prevent impacts on agricultural production over the coming decades. As a result, there is growing interest at country and development partner levels to have a better understanding of the exposure, sensitivities, and impacts of climate change at the farm level, and to develop and prioritize adaptation measures to mitigate the adverse consequences. Beginning in 2009, the World Bank embarked on a program for selected Eastern Europe and Central Asian (ECA) client countries to enhance their ability to mainstream climate change adaptation into agricultural policies, programs, and investments. This multi-stage effort has included activities to raise awareness of the threat, analyze potential impacts and adaptation responses, and build capacity among client country stakeholders and ECA Bank staff with respect to climate change and the agricultural sector. This study, Reducing the Vulnerability of Georgia’s Agricultural Systems to Climate Change, is the culmination of efforts by the Georgian institutions and researchers, the World Bank, and a team of international experts jointly undertake an analytical study to address potential impacts climate change may have on Georgia’s agricultural sector, but, more importantly, to develop a list of prioritized measures to adapt to those impacts. Specifically, this study provides a menu of options for climate change adaptation in the agricultural and water resources sectors, along with specific recommended actions that are tailored to distinct agricultural regions within Georgia. These recommendations reflect the results of three inter-related activities, conducted jointly by the expert team and local partners: 1) quantitative economic modeling of baseline conditions and the effects of certain adaptation options; 2) qualitative analysis conducted by the expert team of agronomists, crop modelers, and water resource experts; and 3) input from a series of participatory workshops for farmers in each of the agricultural regions. Reducing the Vulnerability of Georgia’s Agricultural Systems to Climate Change is part of the World Bank Studies series. These papers are published to communicate the results of the Bank’s ongoing research and to stimulate public discussion. The study is one of three produced under the World Bank program “Reducing Vulnerability to Climate Change in European and Central Asian Agricultural Systems.” The other countries included in this series are Armenia and Azerbaijan. World Bank Studies are available individually or on standing order. This World Bank Studies series is also available online through the World Bank e-library (www.worldbank.org/elibrary).

Product Details

ISBN-13: 9781464801488
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Publication date: 05/13/2014
Series: World Bank Studies
Pages: 88
Product dimensions: 6.70(w) x 9.90(h) x 0.40(d)

Table of Contents

Foreword xi

Preface xiii

Acknowledgments xv

About the Authors xvii

Abbreviations xix

Executive Summary 1

Introduction 1

Key Climate Change Challenges for Georgia's Agricultural Sector 2

Analysis of the Vulnerability of Georgia's Agricultural Sector to Climate Change 6

Identifying a Menu of Adaptation Options 8

Chapter 1 The Study: Design, Methodology, and Limitations 15

Overview of Approach 15

Methodology 20

Limitations 27

Chapter 2 Overview of Agricultural Sector and Climate in Georgia 31

Overview of Georgia's Agricultural Sector 31

Exposure of Georgia's Agricultural Systems to Climate Change 36

Chapter 3 Impacts of Climate Change on Georgia's Agricultural Sector 43

Impacts on Crops and Livestock Systems in Georgia 43

Impacts on Water Availability for Agriculture 46

Georgia's Current Adaptive Capacity 50

Chapter 4 Assessment of Menu of Adaptation Options and Recommendations 57

Adaptation Assessment 57

Recommendations 88

Appendix A Mitigation Potential of Agricultural Adaptation Options 95

Glossary 103

Bibliography 111

Boxes

1.1 Developing a Range of Future Climate Change Scenarios for Georgia 19

1.2 Description of Modeling Tools 22

Figures

ES.1 Climate Change Risks and Recommended Adaptation Measures at the National Level 2

ES.2 Climate Change Risks and Recommended Adaptation Measures for the Eastern Lowlands Agricultural Region 3

ES.3 Estimated Effect of Climate Change on Mean Monthly Runoff Average in the 2040s 7

ES.4 Effect of Climate Change on Irrigated Crop Yields Adjusted for Estimated Irrigation Water Deficits in the 2040s 8

1.1 Flow Chart of Phases of the Study 17

1.2 Steps in Quantitative Modeling of Adaptation Options 23

2.1 Areas Planted by Crop in Georgia, 2000-10 36

2.2 Effect of Climate Change on Monthly Temperature and Precipitation Patterns for the Eastern Lowlands Agricultural Region [2040s) 41

3.1 Mean Monthly 2040s Irrigation Water Demand over All Georgian Basins 46

3.2 Annual Runoff for All Georgian Basins, 2011-50 47

3.3 Mean Monthly 2040s Runoff for All Georgian Basins 48

3.4 Mean Unmet 2040s Monthly Irrigation Water Demands over All Georgian basins 50

3.5 Wheat Yield in Selected Countries Average of 2007-09 55

3.6 Grape Fresh Yield in Selected Countries, Average of 2007-09 55

4.1 Estimated Crop Revenues per Hectare in the 2040s before Adaptation Actions 58

4.2 Illustrative Benefit-Cost Analysis Results for New Irrigation Infrastructure in the Eastern Lowlands Agricultural Region 59

4.3 Illustrative Benefit-Cost Analysis Results for Rehabilitated Irrigation Infrastructure for Crops in the Eastern Lowlands Agricultural Region 60

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