A practical guide to outguessing everything from multiple-choice tests to the office football pool to the stock market.
People are predictable even when they try not to be. William Poundstone demonstrates how to turn this fact to personal advantage in scores of everyday situations, from playing the lottery to buying a home. ROCK BREAKS SCISSORS is mind-reading for real life.
Will the next tennis serve go right or left? Will the market go up or down? Most people are poor at that kind of predicting. We are hard-wired to make bum bets on "trends" and "winning streaks" that are illusions. Yet ultimately we're all in the business of anticipating the actions of others. Poundstone reveals how to overcome the errors and improve the accuracy of your own outguessing. ROCK BREAKS SCISSORS is a hands-on guide to turning life's odds in your favor.
|Publisher:||Little, Brown and Company|
|Product dimensions:||5.40(w) x 8.20(h) x 1.00(d)|
About the Author
William Poundstone is the author of twelve books, including Are You Smart Enough to Work at Google?, How Would You Move Mount Fuji?, and Fortune's Formula. Twice nominated for the Pulitzer Prize, he has written for the New York Times, Harper's, Harvard Business Review, and the Village Voice, among other publications. He lives in Los Angeles.
Table of Contents
Prologue: The Outguessing Machine 3
Part 1 The Randomness Experiment
1 The Zenith Broadcast 27
2 How to Outguess Rock, Paper, Scissors 50
3 How to Outguess Multiple-Choice Tests 57
4 How to Outguess the Lottery 68
5 How to Outguess Tennis Serves 78
6 How to Outguess Baseball and Football 83
7 How to Outguess Soccer Penalty Kicks 87
8 How to Outguess Card Games 90
9 How to Outguess Passwords 95
10 How to Outguess Crowd-Sourced Ratings 107
11 How to Outguess Fake Numbers 112
12 How to Outguess Manipulated Numbers 130
13 How to Outguess Ponzi Schemes 148
Part 2 The Hot Hand Theory
14 In the Zone 161
15 How to Outguess Basketball Bracket Pools 178
16 How to Outguess Office Football Pools 191
17 How to Outguess Oscar Pools 202
18 How to Outguess Big Data 207
19 How to Outguess Retail Prices 215
20 How to Outguess Home Prices 218
21 How to Outguess the Future 224
22 How to Outguess the Stock Market 232
Epilogue: Fortune's Wheel 266
Most Helpful Customer Reviews
This is a whole book about the idea that no one can act randomly. Though it sounds crazy, the book shows how this is important in many walks of life. A quick read, surprising throughout and eye-opening.