Take Charge of the Future: Using the Power of Scenarios to Drive Strategy and Performance

by Arden Brummell

Overview

Strategic planner and consultant Arden Brummell shares his wealth of experience about the scenarios-to-strategy planning process, weaving in his personal career journey with practical examples and insights. The process of creating scenarios and developing strategy provides a powerful vehicle for strategic conversation leading to better informed decision-making across business, government and non-profit organizations.

Designed for planning directors, managers, MBA students, or anyone guiding organizations facing uncertainty and complexity, this book describes how to effectively implement a scenarios-to-strategy process within an integrated strategic management framework.

Product Details

ISBN-13:	9781039156012
Publisher:	FriesenPress
Publication date:	01/30/2023
Pages:	248
Product dimensions:	7.00(w) x 10.00(h) x 0.52(d)

About the Author

Arden Brummell has forty years' experience as an academic, planner, and consultant, leading over one hundred strategic-scenario planning projects around the world, including Canada, the US, Europe, Africa, and South America. He has worked with major international companies such as Royal Dutch Shell, Placer Dome, Ralston Purina and the LA Times, as well as non-profits and governments. His companies, GBN Canada, and Scenarios to Strategy Inc., of which he is a managing director, emphasize the need to systematically link scenarios to strategy.

He is an avid golfer and winemaker and lives with his wife, Susan, in Calgary, Alberta.

Editorial Reviews

2023-03-01
In this business book, a consultant promotes a scenarios-to-strategy planning process.

With four decades of experience, Brummell is a credible expert when it comes to strategic planning. His focus in this executive-level volume is “scenario thinking,” which is intended “to create understanding of a broader range of possible future outcomes, and to enhance the ability to adapt.” In five terse parts the book covers the logic of scenarios; how to develop them; how they are utilized in strategy development; strategy implementation; and the author’s own application of the planning process. Part 1 lays the groundwork by detailing the attributes of scenarios, or “stories describing a range of different futures.” Brummell makes an important distinction between forecasting and scenarios. Forecasting, widely used by business managers, attempts to specifically predict the future, while a scenario focuses on uncertainties that suggest different potential outcomes. As Brummell writes, “Scenario thinking does not try to reduce uncertainty but to embrace it. As a result, scenarios are most appropriate during periods of turbulence and uncertainty.” In Part 2, the author outlines a five-step method for developing focused scenarios in a workshop environment, which he finds most conducive for the process. Enough detail is provided to comprehend, if not implement, scenario development. Along the way, Brummell offers helpful examples of types of scenarios. Part 3 concentrates on strategy development, demonstrating how scenarios can lead to strategies. Here, the author includes a useful road map to help readers visualize a five-step process. Three pertinent examples of strategy development are described in this part. Implementing strategy is the subject of Part 4, which includes an excellent discussion of the criteria for success. Part 5 examines the author’s personal experiences, from his introduction to scenario planning through trials and tribulations associated with the process. He cites several intriguing cases in which he was involved, including global scenario planning for the future of Africa, Latin America, and even the Soviet Union. The book concludes with Brummell’s insightful assessment of “three major themes” that emerged from scenario projects. Numerous charts, graphs, and sidebars enhance the main text.

A useful, pragmatic approach that should ultimately lead to better strategic decision-making.

Kirkus Reviews