The Accidental Superpower: The Next Generation of American Preeminence and the Coming Global Disorder

by Peter Zeihan

Overview

In the bestselling tradition of The World Is Flat and The Next 100 Years, THE ACCIDENTAL SUPERPOWER will be a much discussed, contrarian, and eye-opening assessment of American power.

Near the end of the Second World War, the United States made a bold strategic gambit that rewired the international system. Empires were abolished and replaced by a global arrangement enforced by the U.S. Navy. With all the world's oceans safe for the first time in history, markets and resources were made available for everyone. Enemies became partners.

We think of this system as normal-it is not. We live in an artificial world on borrowed time.

In THE ACCIDENTAL SUPERPOWER, international strategist Peter Zeihan examines how the hard rules of geography are eroding the American commitment to free trade; how much of the planet is aging into a mass retirement that will enervate markets and capital supplies; and how, against all odds, it is the ever-ravenous American economy that-alone among the developed nations-is rapidly approaching energy independence. Combined, these factors are doing nothing less than overturning the global system and ushering in a new (dis)order.

For most, that is a disaster-in-waiting, but not for the Americans. The shale revolution allows Americans to sidestep an increasingly dangerous energy market. Only the United States boasts a youth population large enough to escape the sucking maw of global aging. Most important, geography will matter more than ever in a de-globalizing world, and America's geography is simply sublime.

Product Details

ISBN-13:	9781455583669
Publisher:	Grand Central Publishing
Publication date:	11/04/2014
Pages:	384
Sales rank:	117,985
Product dimensions:	5.70(w) x 9.10(h) x 1.50(d)

About the Author

Peter Zeihan launched his own firm, Zeihan on Geopolitics, in 2012 after working for twelve years with the geopolitical analysis firm Stratfor, where he was Vice President of Analysis.

Table of Contents

Introduction iv

Chapter 1 The World We Think We Know 1

Chapter 2 Egypt: The Art of Getting from Here to There 11

Chapter 3 Technological Revolutions: Deepwater Navigation and Industrialization 23

Chapter 4 Enter the Accidental Superpower 46

Chapter 5 Buying Off Geopolitics 79

Chapter 6 The Demographic Roller Coaster 94

Chapter 7 The Rise of Shale 118

Chapter 8 The Coming International Disorder 143

Chapter 9 Partners 164

Chapter 10 Players 183

Chapter 11 History Returns to Europe 226

Chapter 12 The Alberta Question 252

Chapter 13 The North American Drug War 273

Chapter 14 The China Wars 294

Chapter 15 Migration and Terrorism 328

Epilogue. The American Age 348

Appendix I No Fear: Climate Change 351

Appendix II Demography and Trade 356

Acknowledgments 357

Index 359

Editorial Reviews

09/15/2014
More by luck than by design, America will prosper in the coming decades while the world goes to hell, according to this eye-opening, contrarian survey of geopolitics. Geopolitical analyst Zeihan bases his predictions on “accidental” factors of the U.S.’s terrain (navigable rivers and rich farmland), resources (abundant shale gas and oil), demography (a relatively young, vigorous population), location (oceans that guard against invasion), and economics (vast consumer markets and cheap capital). The rest of the globe, he argues, will suffer from aging populations, dwindling resources, and the lack of a stable modern-day equivalent to the post-WWII Bretton Woods regime, which fostered free trade, protected sea lanes, and served the world’s export market; the collapse of the international order will include the collapse of China, the breakup of Canada, and war in Europe. Zeihan’s freewheeling, very readable analyses draw on historical examples, from ancient Egypt to modern Denmark, and a wealth of statistics, packaged with interesting maps and graphs. His generalizations can seem oversimplified, and his prognostications eccentric, such as the prediction that a “wave of young Uzbeks will wash asunder all foolish enough to stand in their way.” Still, Zeihan’s provocative take on how land, climate, energy, and population determine wealth and power makes for a stimulating challenge to conventional wisdom. Agent: Jud Laghi, Jud Laghi Agency. (Nov.)

Publishers Weekly

★ 2014-09-28
Geopolitics, the influence of geography on nations, made the United States great and will keep it there, writes the author of this ingenious, optimistic overview of America's superpower status. Zeihan, founder of Zeihan on Geopolitics, adds that America hit the jackpot, geopolitically speaking, inheriting "…the best lands in the world for a very low price in terms of blood, treasure, and time." He downplays the claim that American power is declining, pointing out that in 1945, we produced one quarter of the world's gross domestic product and spent as much on the military and controlled as much naval tonnage at the rest of the world combined. The change in 2014: zero. But some things are changing. Resources are diminishing, energy prices are rising, and demographics are inverting. Baby boomers are now retiring to collect benefits paid for by a shrinking number of younger, working taxpayers. The majority of industrialized nations face financial disaster, except America, which faces only inconvenience. Thanks to fracking, oil and gas production are skyrocketing, and America could be energy independent in five years. Thanks to immigration and vast numbers of child-friendly single-family houses, Americans remain younger than nearly every major culture. Within 30 years, Zeihan predicts, some nations (Greece, Libya, Yemen) will collapse, others (Brazil, India, Canada) will shrink, some (Britain, France, Sweden) will muddle through, and a few (Russia, Germany, Japan, Turkey) will become aggressive. Self-sufficient in food and energy, America will turn inward, reverting to the role it played before World War II: a global power without global interests. Historical prognostication has a dismal record, but readers will find it difficult to put down this fascinating addition to the "rise and fall of nations" genre.

Kirkus Reviews

"[A] lively, readable thesis on how the success or failure of nations may rest on the very ground beneath their feet...Anyone seeking a cogent, and provocative, take on where the world is heading should start here. Even if you don't fall in love with maps, you'll never look at them the same way again."— The Wall Street Journal

"In THE ACCIDENTAL SUPERPOWER, Peter Zeihan has explored a contemporary version of Napoleon's dictum that the power of countries derives from their geography. He brings a refreshingly novel and thought-provoking approach to understanding the rise of a U.S.-led global order, current threats, and why the U.S. will probably ride out the future better than others."— George Magnus, former Chief Economist and current Senior Advisor, UBS, and author of The Age of Ageing and Uprising

"An adventurous anatomy of how geography, demographics, and resources will sway the American future."— Laurence C. Smith, Professor and Chair of Geography at UCLA, and author of The World in 2050: Four Forces Shaping Civilization's Northern Future

"In THE ACCIDENTAL SUPERPOWER, Peter Zeihan deftly deploys his knowledge of demography and geography to show why America's growing energy independence will nurture its global dominance for the next quarter century. His contrarian thrust is a smart parry to forecasts of Washington's dwindling relevance in international affairs."— Stephen Glain, author of State vs. Defense

"[An] ingenious, optimistic overview of America's superpower status...readers will find it difficult to put down this fascinating addition to the 'rise and fall of nations' genre."— Kirkus Reviews (Starred Review)

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