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An ex–Wall Street trader improved on Moneyball’s famed sabermetrics to place bets that would beat the Vegas odds on Major League Baseball games—with a 41 percent return in his first year. Trading Bases explains how he did it.
After the fall of Lehman Brothers, Joe Peta was out of a job. He found a new one but lost that, too, when an ambulance mowed him down. In search of a way to cheer himself up while he recuperated in a wheelchair, Peta started watching baseball again, as he had growing up. That’s when inspiration hit: Why not apply his outstanding risk-analysis skills to improve on sabermetrics, the method made famous by Moneyball—and beat the only market in town, the Vegas betting line? Why not treat MLB like the S&P 500?
In Trading Bases, Peta shows how to subtract luck—in particular “cluster luck,” as he puts it—from a team’s statistics to best predict how it will perform in the next game and over the whole season. His baseball “hedge fund” returned an astounding 41 percent in 2011—and has never been down more than 5 percent. Peta takes readers to the ballpark in San Francisco, trading floors and baseball bars in New York, and sports books in Vegas, all while tracing the progress of his wagers. Often humorous, occasionally touching, and with a wink toward the sheer implausibility of the whole project, Trading Bases is all about the love of critical reasoning, trading cultures, risk management, and baseball. And not necessarily in that order.
|Publisher:||Penguin Publishing Group|
|Product dimensions:||6.40(w) x 9.14(h) x 1.24(d)|
|Age Range:||18 Years|
About the Author
JOE PETA was a Wall Street market maker and hedge fund stock trader for fifteen years. A sports bettor for even longer and a lifelong baseball fan, he lives in San Francisco.
Most Helpful Customer Reviews
A book with rare insight, yet entertaining at the same time. The book was recommended to me by a friend who does not follow baseball and now I see why. It's about much more than baseball. The author's front row view of Lehman's collapse might be the best, most understandable account of the financial crisis I've read. Mixed in with the Wall Street scenes and the baseball betting (connected more easily than you might think) are some great family stories about baseball. It's a really great effort from someone I would bet we'll hear more of in the future.
Further proof that sports betting should be used to teach statistics... Great insight and analysis as to how an edge can be found just about anywhere. The authors critique of the Lehman Brothers demise was spot on and great to read an insiders account of events. His ability to weave together his personal story with insights into the gambling world made this a quick and easy read and I've already started using some of his modeling techniques for my own purposes. I'm not sure what the other reviewer was expecting, maybe a how-to-model, but what savvy investor/gambler would ever spell that out? Do some research/leg work / homework, don't expect to pick up a book and be handed a golden goose without doing any work. Its a great book for business and any sports lover, especially if you're a baseball stat-head.
Title should be I won money betting baseball but i'm not going to say how! Author constantly refers to his "model" in making selections but never tells you how model was created or stats used. Pre-ordered and wasted my money. Where is B&N truth in advertising Tom C. March, 2013