Do Dice Play God?: The Mathematics of Uncertainty

by Ian Stewart

Overview

A celebrated mathematician explores how math helps us make sense of the unpredictable


We would like to believe we can know things for certain. We want to be able to figure out who will win an election, if the stock market will crash, or if a suspect definitely committed a crime. But the odds are not in our favor. Life is full of uncertainty — indeed, scientific advances indicate that the universe might be fundamentally inexact — and humans are terrible at guessing. When asked to predict the outcome of a chance event, we are almost always wrong.


Thankfully, there is hope. As award-winning mathematician Ian Stewart reveals, over the course of history, mathematics has given us some of the tools we need to better manage the uncertainty that pervades our lives. From forecasting, to medical research, to figuring out how to win Let's Make a Deal, Do Dice Play God? is a surprising and satisfying tour of what we can know, and what we never will.

Product Details

ISBN-13:	9781541699472
Publisher:	Basic Books
Publication date:	09/03/2019
Pages:	304
Sales rank:	439,091
Product dimensions:	6.10(w) x 9.30(h) x 1.20(d)

About the Author

Ian Stewart is emeritus professor of mathematics at the University of Warwick. His recent books include Calculating the Cosmos, Significant Figures, In Pursuit of the Unknown, and Professor Stewart's Hoard of Mathematical Treasures. He is a fellow of the Royal Society. He lives in Coventry, UK

Table of Contents

1 Six Ages of Uncertainty 1

2 Reading the Entrails 14

3 Roll of the Dice 24

4 Toss of a Coin 33

5 Too Much Information 46

6 Fallacies and Paradoxes 65

7 Social Physics 80

8 How Certain are You? 94

9 Law and Disorder 108

10 Unpredicting the Predictable 121

11 The Weather Factory 137

12 Remedial Measures 161

13 Financial Fortune-Telling 174

14 Our Bayesian Brain 189

15 Quantum Uncertainty 206

16 Do Dice Play God? 223

17 Exploiting Uncertainty 248

18 Unknown Unknowns 262

Notes 267

Picture Credits 279

Index 280

Author Biography 293

Editorial Reviews

05/06/2019

Stewart (Significant Figures), an emeritus mathematics professor at Warwick University, delves into the mysteries of probability and statistics in this fascinating look at chaos theory and the uncertainties of the quantum universe. He begins with the surprisingly complex probabilities that arise from dice throwing and coin tossing, but finds his most intriguing material when considering his subject’s application to real-life problems. For example, he describes how the egregious misuse of statistics resulted in the murder conviction, later overturned, of a woman who lost two children to sudden infant death syndrome. Elsewhere, he explains how statistics failed to identify the dangers of the morning sickness drug Thalidomide. Stewart’s discussion of weather as a “nonlinear system,” in which small changes in initial conditions can create large changes in resulting conditions, is effectively conveyed with a detailed explanation of the famous butterfly effect. His discussion of climate also includes concise and convincing ripostes to the common tropes of climate change skeptics. Readers interested in whether Schrödinger’s famous cat is actually dead or alive, or how uncertain Heisenberg’s uncertainty principle really is, will find in Stewart’s survey a challenging but rewarding trip through a quantum world of uncertainties. (Sept.)

Publishers Weekly

"[A] fascinating look at chaos theory and the uncertainties of the quantum universe.... Readers interested in whether Schrödinger's famous cat is actually dead or alive, or how uncertain Heisenberg's uncertainty principle really is, will find in Stewart's survey a challenging but rewarding trip through a quantum world of uncertainties."—Publishers Weekly

"A definitely-not-dumbed-down exploration of predicting outcomes, whether of an election, card game, medical test, or weather front...every reader will encounter gems and jolts in this expert analysis of probability."—Kirkus Reviews

"As Stewart so ably demonstrates, uncertainly is the very stuff of life.... A lot here to enjoy and chew on — especially in the sidelong glances at climate change denial and lawyers' misuses of statistics."—The Telegraph

"[An] engaging history of the mathematics of uncertainty.... Stewart, a mathematics professor, is at his best when romping through the cutting edge of the discipline."—The Times (UK)

"[Stewart] probes the connection between quantum entanglement and communication, with interesting excursions into the history of mathematics, gambling, and science."— Nature

"Life is full of uncertainty, but as Ian Stewart shows in this fascinating new book, humanity is endlessly striving to anticipate the future. Stewart brilliantly explores the exhilarating milestones and frustrating limits in our quest to map out the shape of things to come, from the challenges of weather and climate forecasting to the frontiers of modern physics. An extraordinary overview of the challenges of forecasting in a universe built on randomness."—Paul Halpern, author of The Quantum Labyrinth

"In an era of soundbites, bold certainty grabs more attention, but ignoring uncertainty doesn't make it go away. In this wide-ranging tour, Ian Stewart gives us a much needed antidote to the plague of fabricated black-and-white arguments: instead of pretending to be certain when we can't be, we can understand and rationalize uncertainty, using the tools of mathematics."—Eugenia Cheng, author of How to Bake Pi

"A richly insightful book, instilled with Stewart's brilliance, wit, and knowledge of history. Do Dice Play God? skillfully imparts an easily accessible mathematical frame for appreciating how it is possible to predict future affairs of the universe with virtual certainty as they pass in time through formidable gauntlets of uncertainty."—Joseph Mazur, author of Fluke: The Math and Myth of Coincidence

From the Publisher

2019-05-26
A definitely-not-dumbed-down exploration of predicting outcomes, whether of an election, card game, medical test, or weather front.

Stewart (Emeritus, Mathematics/Univ. of Warwick; Significant Figures: The Lives and Work of Great Mathematicians, 2017), the prolific popular author of books on his specialty, points out that "an aspect of the human condition that arguably singles out our species from most other animals is time-binding. We're conscious that there will be a future, and we plan our current behavior in the context of our expectations of that future." Predicting odds is straightforward (though not always easy), and predicting the future turns out to be surprisingly possible, but both require calculations—in other words, mathematics. Popular writers on difficult topics involving math and science often assure readers that they will limit the equations, but Stewart has no patience with this tradition, so readers who do not remember high school algebra will have a difficult time. The author interweaves his account with a lively history that, few readers will be surprised to learn, began in the Renaissance, largely with gamblers who wrote long monographs that teased out the unnerving peculiarities of dice and cards. Stewart states bluntly that "the human intuition for probability is hopeless." Evolution has trained us to make quick decisions, which are essential in the struggle for existence but a bad idea when faced with even simple abstractions such as estimating odds. He illustrates with plenty of squirm-inducing paradoxes. Example: A couple has two children; at least one is a girl. What is the chance that they have two girls? Almost everyone answers 1 in 2, but it's 1 in 3. Now suppose that the elder child is a girl. What is the chance that they have two girls? This time 1 in 2 is correct.

The innumerate will struggle, but every reader will encounter gems and jolts in this expert analysis of probability.

Kirkus Reviews