The Psychology of Intelligence Analysis

by Richard J. Heuer

Overview

This volume pulls together and republishes, with some editing, updating, and additions, articles written during 1978-86 for internal use within the CIA Directorate of Intelligence. The information is relatively timeless and still relevant to the never-ending quest for better analysis. The articles are based on reviewing cognitive psychology literature concerning how people process information to make judgments on incomplete and ambiguous information. Richard Heur has selected the experiments and findings that seem most relevant to intelligence analysis and most in need of communication to intelligence analysts. He then translates the technical reports into language that intelligence analysts can understand and interpreted the relevance of these findings to the problems intelligence analysts face.

Product Details

ISBN-13:	9781907521041
Publisher:	Books Express Publishing
Publication date:	06/14/2010
Edition description:	New Edition
Pages:	208
Sales rank:	750,615
Product dimensions:	5.90(w) x 8.90(h) x 0.50(d)

Table of Contents

Author's Preface ... v

Foreword ... vii

Introduction ... xi

Part I - Our Mental Machinery ... 1

Chapter 1: Thinking About Thinking ... 1

Chapter 2: Perception: Why Can't We See What Is There To Be Seen? ... 7

Chapter 3: Memory: How Do We Remember What We Know? ... 17

Part II - Tools For Thinking ... 31

Chapter 4: Strategies for Analytical Judgment: Transcending the Limits of Incomplete Information ... 31

Chapter 5: Do You Really Need More Information? ... 51

Chapter 6: Keeping an Open Mind ... 65

Chapter 7: Structuring Analytical Problems ... 85

Chapter 8: Analysis of Competing Hypotheses ... 95

Part III - Cognitive Biases ... 111

Chapter 9: What Are Cognitive Biases? ... 111

Chapter 10: Biases in Evaluation of Evidence ... 115

Chapter 11: Biases in Perception of Cause and Effect ... 127

Chapter 12: Biases in Estimating Probabilities ... 147

Chapter 13: Hindsight Biases in Evaluation of Intelligence Reporting ... 161

Part IV - Conclusions ... 173

Chapter 14: Improving Intelligence Analysis ... 173