Table of Contents

Preface vii

A Note on Transcription ix

List of Charts and Tables xv

Part 1 Introduction

1 The Argument 3

2 Elites and Traps 17

2.1 The Fundamental Transformation of Labor Surplus Economies 17

2.2 Elites Competing and cooperating 23

2.3 Traps 33

2.4 The Erosion of Elite Status 39

2.5 Co-evolution 41

2.6 Appendix: The Fundamental Growth Equation 43

Part II Coping with the Western Challenge, 1840-1911

3 Qing China, 1840-1911 47

3.1 Elites in Qing China 47

3.2 The western Challenge 56

3.3 Qing Response 62

4 Tokugawa and Meiji Japan 70

4.1 In Two Mirros 70

4.2 Elites in Tokugawa Japan 72

4.3 The Meiji Restoration 79

Part III Traps, 1910-1955

5 Growth Acceleration in Japan, 1910-1938 89

5.1 Agriculture and the Decline of a Rural Elite 89

5.2 Infrastructure and Urbanization 92

5.3 Manufacturing 95

5.4 The Demographic Transition Commences 97

5.5 The Disintegration of the fukoku kyohei Consensus 100

6 Agriculture and Industrialization in Republican China, 1911-1935 108

6.1 A Divided Elite 108

6.2 Landlordism and Surplus Labor in Rural China 113

6.3 Manufacturing Expansion in Shanghai and Manchuria 116

6.4 Regional Fissures 119

7 Militarism, 1930-1945 126

7.1 A Changing Geopolitical Environment 126

7.2 Nationalism and Anti-Imperialism in China 129

7.3 Japan's Drive to Hegemony in Asia 132

7.4 Surrender 136

Part IV Consequences, 1945-2005

8 Elites in Decline 143

8.1 Elites Disappearing and Emerging in Japan, 1945-1960 143

8.2 Elites Disappearing and Emerging in China, 1945-1960 147

8.3 China in the Japanese Mirror: Similarities and Dissimilarities 149

9 Miracle Growth and Its Aftermath in japan 156

9.1 The Main Characteristics of Miracle Growth 156

9.2 Productivity Gain in Agriculture 162

9.3 Productivity Gain in Manufacturing 163

9.4 Struggling with the Legacy of Miracle Growth, 1975-2005 169

10 Commond and Control and Its Aftermath in China 176

10.1 The Main Characteristics of Command and Control in China 176

10.2 Productivity Gain in Agriculture 181

10.3 Productivity Gain in Manufacturing 185

10.4 Struggling with the Legacy of the Command and Control Period 187

11 Conclusions 191

Statistical Appendix 195

Bibliography 245

Index 255