Table of Contents
List of Tables ix
List of Figures xi
Chapter 1 What Do We Mean by Change? 3
The Study of Change 8
Chapter 2 Some Definitions 11
Natural Systems 11
Artificial Systems 11
Social Systems 12
Technical Systems 12
Socio-Technical Systems 12
A System 13
Complicated System 13
Complex System 14
A Component's Environment 15
Co-Evolutionary Systems 16
Thresholds 17
Propagation 17
Initial Conditions 18
Design Space 18
Chapter 3 Failure by Design 21
Socio-Technical Design Failure 21
Chapter 4 Influence, Boundaries and Structure 27
Examples 27
Influence 29
Boundaries 31
Organisation or Network Structure 33
Regular Networks 33
Random Networks 34
Small-World Networks 34
Layered and Hierarchic Aspects 36
Systems have a Past and a Future 37
Layers of Change 37
Chapter 5 Change in Complex Systems 41
Fitness and Change 43
Change in an N-dimensional Design Space 47
The Co-Evolutionary Process 50
The Threshold 52
Resistance to Change 55
Chapter 6 Propagation 59
The Temporal Effect 60
An Illustration of Propagation in a Model 61
Chapter 7 Modelling and Modelling Mechanisms 67
Models 67
Computer-Based Models 68
Aspects of Model Design 70
Coupling 72
Cumulative Effect 76
Structural Change 77
Mechanisms 77
Cellular Automata 77
Simultaneous Change 82
Subsequent Changes 85
Feedback 88
Agent-Based Models 89
Chapter 8 Simulation 93
The SeeChange Program and the System Structure 96
A "Cellular Automata" Application of SeeChange 100
Small-World Application of SeeChange 103
Applying SeeChange to a Business Model 108
Comparison of SeeChange with Commercial Tools 112
Insight and Understanding of System Behaviour 114
Insight into Interaction with Complex Systems 114
Chapter 9 What Do We Do When a Change is Indicated? 117
Messes, Problems and Puzzles 117
Design by Increments 118
Forecasting 120
Chapter 10 Implementing a System 121
Early Architectures 121
Mutability 124
The Crucial Role of Time 125
Design of Computer-Based Systems 126
Design Strategy 127
Chapter 11 Real-World Change: EUREKA Class 129
Aspects of the Change Process on a Ship 130
EUREKA Simple Simulation 131
Independent Changes 132
Impact Analysis 132
A Model of Change on a EUREKA Ship 137
A SeeChange Model of Changes to a Ship 145
Physical Model 145
Structure of the SeeChange Model System 151
Chapter 12 Real-World Change: Climate 165
Climate Variables 165
Climate Data 171
Climate Models 174
Simulation of Climate Models 176
Chapter 13 In the Future 181
Surprise is Always the Result of Change, Accept It 181
Bibliography 183
Index 191
