Publishers Weekly
05/11/2020
In this astute and optimistic debut, Guillén, a professor of international management at the Wharton School, examines recent economic shifts and technological advances in order to predict how the world might look a decade from now. Solving contemporary crises such as climate change and economic inequality, Guillén writes, will require “lateral thinking” that approaches a problem from multiple angles and tests numerous solutions. He explores, for example, how agricultural advances might curtail hunger in Africa, where a rising middle class will impact worldwide consumer trends. He also examines how cryptocurrencies might sabotage the banking industry, predicts an uptick in wealth for Asian countries, and offers a carefully reasoned discussion of both the positive and negative potential repercussions of increased automation. Environmentalists may disagree with Guillén’s assertion that “small, ordinary adjustments to our daily behavior” can stimulate the dramatic carbon reduction necessary to mitigate climate change, and his query about the gig economy (“will monopolistic digital platforms... end up exploiting workers and consumers alike?”) will strike many readers as already answered. Still, this sharp, well-informed analysis of present-day trends and future outcomes provides valuable insights to investors, business owners, and policy makers. (Aug.)
From the Publisher
Wall Street Journal Bestseller
One of Adam Grant's "15 Leadership Books of the Summer"
"An interesting book...it talked about the kinds of trends we might see in society over the next decade and how do we prepare for that today."
—Indra Nooyi, former CEO of PepsiCo, on a podcast
"Now more than ever, it's clear that the future will be radically different than the present. Join Mauro Guillen on a brilliant exploration of trends that will change the way we live, work, and play."
—Angela Duckworth, New York Times bestselling author of Grit: The Power of Passion and Perseverance
"2030 is a one-stop list of the most transformational trends that, in a decade, will fundamentally alter the way we live, work, and interact forever. From demographic shifts, to urbanization, changes in the gender/wealth nexus, technological diminution and adjustments of the global economy, Mauro Guillen reminds us of our interconnectedness and vulnerabilities, and as such this is a must read book, which we simply cannot afford to ignore."
—Dambisa Moyo, New York Times bestselling author of Edge of Chaos: Why Democracy is Failing to Create Economic Growth and How to Fix It
“In 2030, Mauro Guillen offers a convincing and compelling strategy for successfully navigating the seismic changes in our demography, economy, technology, and culture that will define the next decade.”
—Cal Newport, New York Times bestselling author of Deep Work and Digital Minimalism
“We know a lot about what’s going on with dollars and cents, but we’re surprisingly uninformed about how social structures are transforming the world around us. Mauro Guillen, a brilliant sociologist, is here to change that. His bold, provocative book illuminates why we’re having fewer babies, the middle class is stagnating, unemployment is shifting, and new powers are rising.”
—Adam Grant, New York Times bestselling author of Originals: How Non-Conformists Change the World, and host of the TED podcast WorkLife
"Every company and organization must anticipate how different markets, consumers, and society as a whole will change in order to remain competitive in the long-term. In 2030, Guillen shows why this kind of foresight is more important now than in any time in recent memory. Lively, important, and urgent, 2030 is a must read for anyone who wants to truly understand the biggest trends of the coming decade."
—William P. Lauder, Executive Chairman, The Estée Lauder Companies
"These interconnected shifts in the way we live and work, our politics and culture, and our time on earth add up to the most massive disruption and change in human history. In 2030, Mauro Guillen weaves all these threads and more together to provide a veritable guidebook for this brave new world we will leave to our children. Must reading for business and political leaders, city-builders and everyone concerned about what the future will bring."
—Richard Florida, author of the international bestseller, The Rise of the Creative Class: And How It's Transforming Work, Leisure, Community and Everyday Life
"Global change accelerates every decade, meaning from now to 2030 will be a roller-coaster ride as we have never witnessed before. In this wide-ranging and illuminating book, Mauro Guillen covers a range of important megatrends to capture a world that lies right around the corner."
—Dr. Parag Khanna, Managing Partner of FutureMap and bestselling author of The Future is Asian
"This sharp, well-informed analysis of present-day trends and future outcomes provides valuable insights to investors, business owners, and policy makers."
—Publishers Weekly
“Mauro’s book will be a must-read for those looking to understand the what, why and so what of transformational global change – that is, new trends that are emerging in a decisive, durable and impactful fashion; why they are doing so; and what this means not just for countries and companies, but also for households and communities.”
—Mohamed El-Erian, Chief Economic Adviser, Allianz, and bestselling author of When Markets Collide
"By the author’s projections, 50% of Americans will be obese in 2030....Regarding the issue of population, the world will be older almost everywhere. Interestingly, Guillén links the success of Airbnb and other aspects of the "sharing economy" to older persons who want to remain in their homes but find them large enough to offer rooms to rent... Students of population biology, gerontology, and finance alike will find value in these pages."
—Kirkus Review
"2030 is a book that will stimulate the imagination of everyone who reads it."
—International Policy Digest
"In Mauro F. Guillén’s new book, 2030: How Today’s Biggest Trends Will Collide and Reshape the Future of Everything, the author lays out an astonishing list of things to expect and how these will impact all of us in very dramatic ways... No matter your profession, the ability to stay relevant and thrive in your career over the next decade will require more than simply staying up to date on your domain expertise and general business knowledge. You will also need to expand your ability to think creatively and strengthen your overall social skills."
—The Seattle Post-Intelligencer
"An intriguing book for anyone who plans on living, doing business, or relaxing in the next decade or so. It’ll require some between-the-lines reading, but it’ll also spark thought, too. If you need to know the future, even just a little bit, the need for 2030 is crystal clear."
—The Nashville Ledger
"This is a remarkable book... I have difficulty praising this book too highly."
—Informed Comment
Kirkus Reviews
2020-04-26
Wharton School professor Guillén examines demographic, economic, and climatic trends to project a vision of the world 10 years hence.
Forecasting the future is always a project fraught with peril, as the authors of The Limits to Growth might tell you. Yet some trends of the present seem bound for a harvest of ineluctable results. The number of hungry people will grow in the next decade, but so, too, will obesity; by the author’s projections, 50% of Americans will be obese in 2030. This speaks to another growing trend: inequality, a neat solution for which seems unlikely. Even so, Guillén prophesies that middle-class markets will grow in Asia at a much faster clip than in Europe and North America while Africa, which now has the world’s fastest-growing populations, will be on the brink of either disaster or a renaissance that will finally bring it wealth. “For better or worse,” he writes, “its fortunes will matter globally.” Regarding the issue of population, the world will be older almost everywhere. Interestingly, Guillén links the success of Airbnb and other aspects of the “sharing economy” to older persons who want to remain in their homes but find them large enough to offer rooms to rent. Bearing the financial weight of this increasingly older population will be millennials and Gen Z’ers, many of whom, ventures the author, will not be able to accumulate much wealth over their working lifetimes. Some of the seemingly intractable problems of today—immigration and climate change, foremost among them—will not be fixed until the conversations surrounding them become fact-based. As Guillén notes, immigration is a net benefit to society, and “there’s a great need for a calm debate about the best policies to determine the volume, timing, and composition of immigration so as to maximize the opportunities for both the origin and the destination countries and so that globalization does not leave millions of people behind as they lose jobs and their communities decline.”
Students of population biology, gerontology, and finance alike will find value in these pages.
