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059323829X
ISBN-13:
9780593238295
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AI 2041: Ten Visions for Our Future

AI 2041: Ten Visions for Our Future

by Kai-Fu Lee, Chen Qiufan

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Overview

How will artificial intelligence change our world within twenty years?
 
“This inspired collaboration between a pioneering technologist and a visionary writer of science fiction offers bold and urgent insights.”—Yann LeCun, winner of the Turing Award; chief AI scientist, Facebook
 
“Amazingly entertaining . . . Lee and Chen take us on an immersive trip through the future. . . . Eye-opening.”—Mark Cuban

AI will be the defining development of the twenty-first century. Within two decades, aspects of daily human life will be unrecognizable. AI will generate unprecedented wealth, revolutionize medicine and education through human-machine symbiosis, and create brand-new forms of communication and entertainment. In liberating us from routine work, however, AI will also challenge the organizing principles of our economic and social order. Meanwhile, AI will bring new risks in the form of autonomous weapons and smart technology that inherits human bias. AI is at a tipping point, and people need to wake up—both to AI’s radiant pathways and its existential perils for life as we know it.

In this provocative, utterly original work, Kai-Fu Lee, the former president of Google China and bestselling author of AI Superpowers, teams up with celebrated novelist Chen Qiufan to imagine our world in 2041 and how it will be shaped by AI. In ten gripping short stories, they introduce readers to an array of eye-opening 2041 settings, such as:

• In San Francisco, the “job reallocation” industry emerges as deep learning AI causes widespread job displacement
• In Tokyo, a music fan is swept up in an immersive form of celebrity worship based on virtual reality and mixed reality
• In Mumbai, a teenage girl rebels when AI’s crunching of big data gets in the way of romance
• In Seoul, virtual companions with perfected natural language processing (NLP) skills offer orphaned twins new ways to connect
• In Munich, a rogue scientist draws on quantum computing, computer vision and other AI technologies in a revenge plot that imperils the world

By gazing toward a not-so-distant horizon, AI 2041 offers urgent insights into our collective future—while reminding readers that, ultimately, humankind remains the author of its destiny.


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Product Details

ISBN-13: 9780593238295
Publisher: Crown Publishing Group
Publication date: 09/14/2021
Pages: 480
Sales rank: 28,602
Product dimensions: 9.20(w) x 6.20(h) x 1.50(d)

About the Author

Kai-Fu Lee is the CEO of Sinovation Ventures and New York Times bestselling author of AI Superpowers. Lee was formerly the president of Google China and a senior executive at Microsoft, SGI, and Apple. Co-chair of the Artificial Intelligence Council at the World Economic Forum, he has a bachelor’s degree from Columbia and a PhD from Carnegie Mellon. Lee’s numerous honors include being named to the Time 100 and Wired 25 Icons lists. He is based in Beijing.

Chen Qiufan (aka Stanley Chan) is an award-winning author, translator, creative producer, and curator. He is the president of the World Chinese Science Fiction Association. His works include Waste Tide, Future Disease, and The Algorithms for Life. The founder of Thema Mundi, a content development studio, he lives in Beijing and Shanghai.

Read an Excerpt

Chapter One

The Golden Elephant

Story translated by Blake Stone-Banks

It is better to live your own destiny imperfectly than to imitate somebody else’s perfectly.

—Bhagavad Gita (भगवद्गीता, Song of God or Hindu Scripture) chapter 3, verse 35

Note from Kai-Fu: The opening story takes readers to Mumbai, where we meet a family who has signed up for a deep-learning-enabled insurance program. This dynamic insurance program engages with the insured in the form of a series of apps intended to better their lives. The family’s teenage daughter, however, finds that the AI program’s persuasive nudges complicate her search for love. “The Golden Elephant” introduces the basics of AI and deep learning, offering a sense of its main strengths and weaknesses. In particular, the story illustrates how AI can single-mindedly try to optimize certain goals, but sometimes create detrimental externalities. The story also suggests the risks when one company possesses so much data from its users. In my commentary at the end of the chapter, I will explore these issues, offering a brief history of AI and why it excites many but has become a source of distrust for others.


On the screen, the three-story statue of Ganesh swayed in the surf of Chowpatty Beach as though synced to the sitar soundtrack. With each wave, the towering idol descended lower until it was engulfed by the Arabian Sea. In the salty brine, the statue dissolved into gold and burgundy foam, washing onto Chowpatty Beach, where the colors clung like blessings to the legions of believers who had gathered for the Visarjan immersion ritual celebrating the end of the Ganesh Chaturthi festival.

In her family’s Mumbai apartment, Nayana watched as her grandparents clapped their hands and sang along to the TV. Her younger brother, Rohan, took a mouthful of cassava chips and a deep swig from his diet cola. Though he was only eight, Rohan was under doctor’s orders to strictly control his fat and sugar intake. As he wagged his head in excitement, crumbs sprayed from his mouth and flew across the floor. In the kitchen, Papa Sanjay and Mama Riya banged on pots and crooned like they were in a Bollywood film.

Nayana tried to shut them all out of her mind. The tenth-grader was instead focusing all her energy on her smartstream, where she had downloaded FateLeaf. The new app was all Nayana’s classmates could seem to talk about lately. It was said to possess the answer to almost any question, thanks to the prescience of India’s greatest fortune tellers.

The app—its branding and ad campaign made clear—was inspired by the Hindu sage Agastya, who was said to have engraved the past, present, and future lives of all people in Sanskrit onto palm leaves, so-called Nadi leaves, thousands of years ago.

According to the legend, simply by providing one’s thumbprints and birthdate to a Nadi leaf fortune teller, a person could have their life story foretold from the corresponding leaf. The problem was that many leaves had been lost to meddling colonialists, war, and time. In 2025, a tech company tracked down and scanned all the known Nadi leaves still in circulation. The company used AI to perform deep learning, auto-translation, and analysis of the remaining leaves. The result was the creation of virtual Nadi leaves, stored in the cloud—one for each of the 8.7 billion people on Earth.

Nayana was not dwelling on the ancient history of the Nadi leaves. She had a more pressing matter on her mind. Users of the FateLeaf app could seek to uncover the wisdom of their Nadi leaf by posing various questions. While her family watched the Ganesh Visarjan celebration on TV, Nayana nervously typed out a question within the app: “Does Sahej like me?” Before she clicked “Send,” a notification popped up indicating that an answer to her question would cost two hundred rupees. Nayana clicked “Submit.”

Nayana had liked Sahej from the moment his stream first connected in their virtual classroom. Her new classmate didn’t use any filter or AR background. Behind Sahej, hanging on the wall, Nayana could see rows of colorful masks, which, she learned, Sahej had carved and painted himself. On the first day of the new term, the teacher had asked Sahej about the masks, and the new student shyly gave a show-and-tell, explaining how the masks combined Indian gods and spirits with the powers of superheroes.

Now, in an invitation-only room on her ShareChat, some of Nayana’s classmates were gossiping about Sahej. From the way his room was furnished to the fact that his surname was hidden from public view in school records, these girls were certain Sahej was among the “vulnerable group” that the government mandated make up at least 15 percent of their student body. At private schools across India, such children were practically guaranteed spots and their tuition, books, and uniforms were covered by scholarships. “Fifteen percent” and “vulnerable group” were euphemisms for the Dalits.

From documentaries she had watched online, Nayana knew about India’s old caste system, which was deeply embedded in Hindu religious and cultural beliefs. A person’s caste had once determined one’s profession, education, spouse—their whole life. At the bottom rung of this system were the Dalits, or, as they were sometimes referred to with derision, “untouchables.” For generations, members of this community were forced to do the dirtiest jobs: cleaning sewers, handling the corpses of dead animals, and tanning leather.

The constitution of India, ratified in 1950, outlawed discrimination based on caste. But for years following independence, Dalit areas for drinking, dining, residing, and even burial were kept separate from those of groups considered higher in the system. Members of the higher castes might even refuse to be in the same room as the Dalits, even if they were classmates or colleagues.

In the 2010s, the Indian government sought to correct these injustices by establishing a 15-percent quota for Dalit representation in government positions and in schools. The well-intentioned policy had sparked controversy and even violence. Higher-caste parents complained that such admissions weren’t based on academic performance. They argued that their children were paying the price for previous generations’ sins and that India was just trading one form of inequality for another.

Despite these pockets of backlash, the government’s efforts seemed to be working. The 200 million descendants of Dalits were integrating into mainstream society. It had become more difficult to recognize their past identity at a glance.

The girls in Nayana’s ShareChat couldn’t stop talking about the new boy in school, Sahej, debating his background—but also whether they would consider going out with him.

You shallow snobs, Nayana silently huffed.

For her part, Nayana saw in Sahej a kindred artistic spirit. Inspired by Bharti Kher, Nayana dreamed of becoming a performance artist, and she often had to explain that this was nothing like being a superficial pop entertainer. She believed great artists had to be brutally honest about their innermost feelings and should never accept the perspectives of others. If she liked Sahej, then she liked Sahej—no matter his family background, where he lived, or even his Tamil-accented Hindi.

The question Nayana had posed to the FateLeaf app seemed to take forever to process. Finally, a notification popped up on Nayana’s smartstream accompanied by a palm leaf icon: “What a pity! Due to insufficient data provided, FateLeaf cannot currently answer your query.”

The clink of Nayana’s refund vibrated from her smartstream.

“Insufficient data!” Nayana silently cursed at the app.

Annoyed, she finally raised her head from her screen to notice her mother, Riya, putting the finishing touches on dinner. Something was off. In addition to a number of Indian holiday delights, Nayana saw several super-expensive dishes from a Chinese delivery place on the table. Such treats were rare for her penny-pinching father. But there was something even more unusual: Riya was wearing her favorite pure silk Parsi-style sari. She had her hair up and was wearing a complete set of jewelry. Even Nayana’s grandparents seemed different—happier than usual—and for once, her fat brother, Rohan, wasn’t pestering her with all kinds of stupid questions.

The Ganesh Chaturthi festival couldn’t explain all this.

“So, is anyone going to tell me what’s going on?” Nayana said as she stared at the spread on the table.

“What do you mean, what’s going on?” Riya shot back.

“Am I the only one who thinks all this is a bit out of the ordinary?”

Nayana’s parents glanced at each other for a second then burst out laughing.

Table of Contents

Introduction Kai-Fu Lee: The Real Story of AI xi

Introduction by Chen Qiufan: How We Can Learn to Stop Worrying and Embrace the Future with Imagination xix

1 The Golden Elephant 3

Analysis: Deep Learning, Big Data, Internet/Finance Applications, AI Externalities 22

2 Gods Behind the Masks 33

Analysis: Computer Vision, Convolutional Neural Networks, Deepfakes, Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs), Biometrics, AI Security 55

3 Twin Sparrows 67

Analysis: Natural Language Processing, Self-Supervised Training, GPT-3, AGI and Consciousness, AI Education 108

4 Contactless Love 121

Analysis: AI Healthcare, Alphafold, Robotic Applications, COVID Automation Acceleration 152

5 My Haunting Idol 167

Analysis: Virtual Reality (VR), Augmented Reality (AR), and Mixed Reality (MR), Brain-Computer Interface (BCI), Ethical and Societal Issues 200

6 The Holy Driver 211

Analysis: Autonomous Vehicles, Full Autonomy and Smart Cities, Ethical and Social Issues 246

7 Quantum Genocide 255

Analysis: Quantum Computers, Bitcoin Security, Autonomous Weapons and Existential Threat 302

8 The Job Savior 313

Analysis: AI Job Displacement, Universal Basic Income (UBI), What AI Cannot Do, 3RS as a Solution to Displacement 344

9 Isle of Happiness 357

Analysis: AI and Happiness, General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR), Personal Data, Privacy Computing Using Federated Learning and Trusted Execution Environment (Tee) 389

10 Dreaming of Plenitude 401

Analysis: Plenitude, New Economic Models, The Future of Money, Singularity 423

Acknowledgments 441

Index 443

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