China's Gambit: The Calculus of Coercion

by Ketian Zhang

Overview

Emerging from an award-winning article in International Security, China's Gambit examines when, why, and how China attempts to coerce states over perceived threats to its national security. Since 1990, China has used coercion for territorial disputes and issues related to Taiwan and Tibet, yet China is curiously selective in the timing, target, and tools of coercion. This book offers a new and generalizable cost-balancing theory to explain states' coercion decisions. It demonstrates that China does not coerce frequently and uses military coercion less when it becomes stronger, resorting primarily to non-militarized tools. Leveraging rich empirical evidence, including primary Chinese documents and interviews with Chinese and foreign officials, this book explains how contemporary rising powers translate their power into influence and offers a new framework for explaining states' coercion decisions in an era of economic interdependence, particularly how contemporary global economic interdependence affects rising powers' foreign security policies.

Product Details

ISBN-13:	9781009423830
Publisher:	Cambridge University Press
Publication date:	07/03/2025
Pages:	245
Product dimensions:	5.98(w) x 9.02(h) x 0.51(d)

About the Author

Ketian Zhang is an Assistant Professor at George Mason University. She studies rising powers' grand strategies, coercion, economic statecraft, and maritime disputes, with a focus on China. Her research has appeared in International Security, Journal of Strategic Studies, Journal of Contemporary China, Asia Policy, and Journal of Indo-Pacific Affairs.

Table of Contents

1. Introduction; 2. The cost balancing theory; 3. Coercion in the south China sea; 4. Sino-Japanese disputes in the east China sea; 5. Coercion in cross-strait relations; 6. Tibet and the dalai lama visits; 7. Conclusion.

Editorial Reviews

'Ketian Zhang draws attention to the need for a clearer understanding of when and how China resorts to coercion in its foreign policy. The result is a distinctive explanation that illuminates both the military and non-military aspects of the broad challenges a more capable China poses for international politics in the twenty-first century.' Avery Goldstein, University of Pennsylvania

'How does China go about asserting its foreign policy interests in an era of complex linkages and economic interdependence? China’s Gambit provides a comprehensive, cogent treatment of this challenging and essential subject, identifying the mechanisms of China’s primarily non-military revisionism. Read and become informed about this most important current dynamic in world affairs.' Erik Gartzke, University of California

‘China's Gambit adds to the literature examining China's rise and coercion calculations in an era of great power competition. Using a rich data set from firsthand interviews and Chinese documents, Ketian Zhang argues that her cost-balancing theory explains China's coercive behavior toward other states, not realism, an individual leader, or nationalism.’ Adam Baker, H-Net

‘A welcome addition to the coercion literature in IR and the literature on China’s foreign policy. The book expands our comprehension of coercive behaviors and their implications by Beijing … With its tightly scoped arguments, robust methodology, and clear relevance, Zhang’s book contributes to our understanding of state coercion, foreign policy decision making, and China’s international politics.’ Dylan M. H. Loh, Perspectives on Politics

From the Publisher